BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Arena MRV
Referee: Lucas Casagrande, Brazil
Atletico-MG
Match Timeline
Mirassol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
17'
A. Minda · Assist: Bernard
Atletico-MG
40'
Willian Machado · Assist: Reinaldo
Mirassol
🔄
57'
Alesson ↔ Jose Aldo
Mirassol
🔄
57'
Carlos Eduardo ↔ Shaylon
Mirassol
61'
Maycon
Atletico-MG
🔄
63'
Denilson ↔ Everton Galdino
Mirassol
🔄
63'
Edson Carioca ↔ Tiquinho Soares
Mirassol
🔄
72'
Cuello ↔ M. Cisse
Atletico-MG
🔄
79'
A. Minda ↔ Lyanco
Atletico-MG
82'
M. Cisse
Atletico-MG
🔄
84'
M. Cassierra ↔ Caua
Atletico-MG
🔄
85'
Eduardo ↔ A. Galeano
Mirassol
🟨
87'
Reinaldo
Mirassol

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 47.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
47.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atletico-MG Win 76.6%
Draw 5.9%
Mirassol Win 17.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico-MG1.21
Mirassol1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
WWDLW
18 GF / 21 GA
Mirassol Mirassol
WLDWL
21 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
6
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
8
4.6
Shots on Goal
4.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 15 matches
Mirassol Mirassol 18 matches
Atletico-MG Statistic Mirassol
5 Wins 6
3 Draws 4
7 Losses 8
18 Goals For 21
21 Goals Against 22
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
6 BTTS Yes 9
10 Over 1.5 12
7 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 6
4.6 Shots On Goal 4.56
13.87 Total Shots 14.11
5.27 Corners 5.78
49.2% Ball Possession 52.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico-MG expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Mirassol in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mirassol having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Atletico-MG have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Mirassol.

Atletico-MG Analysis

Atletico-MG sit 13 with 18 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 18:21, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Victor Hugo (3 goals), Cuello (2 goals), Dudu (2 goals), with creative support from Hulk (3 assists), R. Lodi (2 assists), Victor Hugo (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mirassol Analysis

Mirassol sit 18 with 13 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats with a 16:20 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Igor Formiga (3 goals), Eduardo (2 goals), Nathan Fogaça (2 goals), with creative support from Alesson (4 assists), C. Cuesta (1 assists), Carlos Eduardo (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Atletico-MG won 2 times, Mirassol won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:3 from Atletico-MG's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: Atletico-MG 4-4-2 / Mirassol 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atletico-MG 3, Mirassol 3
H2H summary: Atletico-MG wins 2, draws 1, Mirassol wins 0
Stats
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Mirassol Mirassol
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
1
5 Corner Kicks 6
6 Fouls 14
4 Offsides 1
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Goal 3
7 Shots off Goal 3
2 Blocked Shots 1
10 Shots insidebox 5
5 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
389 Total passes 401
331 Passes accurate 332
2.54 expected_goals 0.87
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Atletico-MG
Formation
Mirassol
Everson
Everson
Natanael
Natanael
Ruan Tressoldi
Ruan Tressoldi
J. Alonso
J. Alonso
Cuello
Cuello
Maycon
Maycon
A. Franco
A. Franco
R. Lodi
R. Lodi
A. Minda
A. Minda
Bernard
🎯
Bernard
M. Cassierra
M. Cassierra
Walter
Walter
Joao Victor
Joao Victor
Lucas Oliveira
Lucas Oliveira
Willian Machado
Willian Machado
Daniel Borges
Daniel Borges
Eduardo
Eduardo
Denilson
Denilson
Reinaldo
🎯
Reinaldo
Carlos Eduardo
Carlos Eduardo
Alesson
Alesson
Edson Carioca
Edson Carioca
Atletico-MG 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
22
Everson
G
2
Natanael
D
4
Ruan Tressoldi
D
6
J. Alonso
D
28
Cuello
↓ 72'
M
8
Maycon
⚽ 61'
M
21
A. Franco
M
16
R. Lodi
M
27
A. Minda
⚽ 17' ↓ 79'
F
11
Bernard
🎯 17'
F
9
M. Cassierra
↓ 84'
F
Substitutes
1
Gabriel Delfim
G
14
Vitor Hugo
D
23
A. Preciado
D
19
Reinier
M
5
Alexsander
M
92
Dudu
F
13
Lyanco
↑ 79'
D
17
Igor Gomes
M
25
T. Perez
M
29
Caua
↑ 84'
F
36
K. Pascini
D
39
M. Cisse
⚽ 82' ↑ 72'
M
Mirassol 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
22
Walter
G
34
Joao Victor
D
2
Lucas Oliveira
D
3
Willian Machado
⚽ 40'
D
20
Daniel Borges
M
33
Eduardo
↓ 85'
M
8
Denilson
↓ 63'
M
6
Reinaldo
🎯 40' 🟨 87'
M
96
Carlos Eduardo
↓ 57'
77
Alesson
↓ 57'
F
95
Edson Carioca
↓ 63'
F
Substitutes
23
Alex Muralha
G
5
Yuri Lara
16
Igor Carius
D
97
Rodrigues
D
17
Everton Galdino
↑ 63'
F
27
A. Galeano
↑ 85'
F
21
Jose Aldo
↑ 57'
M
26
Lucas Mugni
M
12
Victor Luis
D
29
Tiquinho Soares
↑ 63'
F
10
Chico Kim
M
7
Shaylon
↑ 57'
M
Last matches: Atletico-MG
31.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Corinthians
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Santos
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
02.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
0
2
L
11.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Remo
3
3
D
04.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Palmeiras
2
2
D
Last matches: Mirassol
30.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
26.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Fluminense
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Corinthians
2
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Internacional
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Bahia
1
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
01.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Botafogo
2
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vitoria
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Coritiba
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Palmeiras
0
1
L
11.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Santos
2
2
D
11.02.26
Ser
Mirassol
Cruzeiro
2
2
D
H2H: Atletico-MG vs Mirassol
16.05.26
H2H
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
3
1
W
28.09.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
1
0
W
26.04.25
H2H
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
2
2
D
Last matches: Atletico-MG
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0
4
L
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
0
W
11.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Remo
3
3
D
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Palmeiras
2
2
D
H2H at home: Atletico-MG
16.05.26
H2H
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
3
1
W
28.09.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
1
0
W
Last matches: Mirassol
30.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
26.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
0
1
L
20.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Internacional
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Botafogo
2
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vitoria
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Palmeiras
0
1
L
04.02.26
Ser
Mirassol
Remo
2
2
D
H2H away: Mirassol
16.05.26
H2H
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
3
1
L
28.09.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
1
0
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6 17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Atletico-MG 3 missing
-
Patrick Silva
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Victor Hugo
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Gustavo Scarpa
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
Mirassol 3 missing
-
Negueba
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Igor Formiga
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Andre Luis
Questionable Injury
OUT