ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Referee: B. L. Salazar
Libertad
Match Timeline
Orense SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
38'
V. Branda · Assist: D. Coronel
Libertad
45'
A. Chere
Libertad
🔄
46'
R. Jaramilo ↔ E. Pluas
Orense SC
🔄
60'
V. Branda ↔ G. J. Cortez Casierra
Libertad
🔄
60'
D. Coronel ↔ C. Orejuela
Libertad
🔄
60'
A. Chere ↔ E. Caicedo
Libertad
🔄
69'
G. Rostagno ↔ E. S. Zambrano Pesantez
Orense SC
🔄
73'
J. Bravo ↔ X. E. Pineda Arana
Libertad
🔄
81'
C. Valencia ↔ J. Estacio
Libertad
82'
G. J. Cortez Casierra · Assist: E. Caicedo
Libertad

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 44.5%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
44.5%
-
BTTS No
55%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
70.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 1-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Libertad Win 44.5%
Draw 16.5%
Orense SC Win 39%
Expected Goals (xG)
Libertad1.15
Orense SC1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Libertad Libertad
WWDLW
21 GF / 26 GA
Orense SC Orense SC
WLDWL
27 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
0.95
Average Goals Scored
1.23
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
10
BTTS Yes
15
9
Over 2.5
13
3.5
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Libertad Libertad 22 matches
Orense SC Orense SC 22 matches
Libertad Statistic Orense SC
7 Wins 7
6 Draws 5
9 Losses 10
21 Goals For 27
26 Goals Against 32
0.95 Avg Goals Scored 1.23
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
10 BTTS Yes 15
13 Over 1.5 19
9 Over 2.5 13
4 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 5
3.5 Shots On Goal 3.86
10.32 Total Shots 10
3.59 Corners 3.77
45.5% Ball Possession 47.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Orense SC. Orense SC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Orense SC having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Libertad Analysis

So far, Libertad have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 24 points from 21 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 19:26 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Vilington Branda (4 goals), Gabriel Cortez (3 goals), Ivan Zambrano (3 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Cortez (4 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), Vilington Branda (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Orense SC Analysis

Orense SC sit 10 with 26 points after 21 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 9 defeats with a 25:29 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Agustin Herrera (5 goals), Sergio Vásquez (3 goals), Erick Zambrano (2 goals), with creative support from Erick Zambrano (3 assists), Agustin Herrera (2 assists), Sergio Vásquez (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Libertad won 4 times, Orense SC won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:11 from Libertad's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.5%)
Predicted formations: Libertad 4-3-3 / Orense SC 4-4-2
H2H summary: Libertad wins 4, draws 2, Orense SC wins 4
Stats
Libertad Libertad
Orense SC Orense SC
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
13
Blocked Shots
0
Blocked Shots
3
2 Corner Kicks 4
20 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 2
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Goal 1
8 Shots off Goal 13
0 Blocked Shots 3
9 Shots insidebox 8
4 Shots outsidebox 9
1 Goalkeeper Saves 2
354 Total passes 549
294 Passes accurate 476
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Orense SC
Formation
Libertad
J. Ortiz
J. Ortiz
P. Velasco
P. Velasco
S. Callegari
S. Callegari
O. Quinonez
O. Quinonez
B. Caicedo
B. Caicedo
S. Vasquez
S. Vasquez
G. Rostagno
G. Rostagno
R. Jaramilo
R. Jaramilo
A. Herrera
A. Herrera
M. Bermudez
M. Bermudez
A. Mena
A. Mena
D. Cabezas
D. Cabezas
E. Patta
E. Patta
B. Caicedo
B. Caicedo
R. Morinigo
R. Morinigo
O. Quinonez
O. Quinonez
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
V. Branda
V. Branda
C. Valencia
C. Valencia
J. Bravo
J. Bravo
D. Coronel
🎯
D. Coronel
A. Chere
A. Chere
Orense SC 4-3-3
Starting XI
22
J. Ortiz
G
31
P. Velasco
D
6
S. Callegari
D
45
O. Quinonez
D
15
B. Caicedo
D
7
S. Vasquez
M
21
G. Rostagno
↓ 69'
M
25
R. Jaramilo
↓ 46'
M
11
A. Herrera
F
19
M. Bermudez
13
A. Mena
F
Substitutes
12
R. Silva
G
54
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez
↑ 69'
M
24
G. Achilier
D
14
E. Pluas
↑ 46'
M
4
S. Quinonez
D
2
B. Quinonez
D
51
C. Ortiz
50
E. Hernandez
M
33
D. Quintero
F
53
L. Garces
F
59
J. Vera
M
57
S. Mairongo
M
Libertad 5-4-1 (estimated from previous match)
Starting XI
12
D. Cabezas
G
17
E. Patta
D
6
B. Caicedo
D
2
R. Morinigo
D
19
O. Quinonez
D
20
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
D
70
V. Branda
⚽ 38' ↓ 60'
M
63
C. Valencia
↓ 81'
M
30
J. Bravo
↓ 73'
M
49
D. Coronel
🎯 38' ↓ 60'
M
33
A. Chere
⚽ 45' ↓ 60'
F
Substitutes
52
A. Bao
10
G. J. Cortez Casierra
⚽ 82' ↑ 60'
M
25
M. Lucas
D
8
S. Castro
M
18
Y. Quinonez
D
7
C. Orejuela
↑ 60'
M
80
X. E. Pineda Arana
↑ 73'
66
J. Estacio
↑ 81'
M
9
E. Caicedo
🎯 82' ↑ 60'
F
Last matches: Libertad
25.08.26
Lig
Libertad
Macara
1
0
W
15.08.26
Lig
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
2
2
D
10.08.26
Lig
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
2
1
W
27.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
2
0
W
21.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
1
0
W
19.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
15.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
12.07.26
Lig
Libertad
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
04.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
3
L
30.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
2
L
23.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Independiente del Valle
3
2
W
16.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
10.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Emelec
1
1
D
02.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
W
26.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Macara
0
3
L
21.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
18.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
12.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Orense SC
1
2
L
07.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
2
2
D
21.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
0
0
D
Last matches: Orense SC
23.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Barcelona SC
0
3
L
16.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
2
0
W
09.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Delfin SC
1
1
D
26.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
23.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Aucas
2
1
W
20.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
1
2
L
17.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Emelec
0
2
L
11.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Manta FC
0
0
D
07.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
01.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
LDU de Quito
0
3
L
23.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
19.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
09.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Leones del Norte
2
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Macara
2
1
W
26.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
22.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
3
1
W
19.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Delfin SC
0
0
D
12.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Libertad
2
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
0
2
L
24.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Aucas
2
3
L
H2H: Libertad vs Orense SC
01.08.26
H2H
Libertad
Orense SC
3
0
W
12.04.26
H2H
Orense SC
Libertad
2
1
L
21.12.25
H2H
Orense SC
Libertad
3
2
L
05.10.25
H2H
Libertad
Orense SC
2
0
W
13.07.25
H2H
Orense SC
Libertad
0
1
W
15.03.25
H2H
Libertad
Orense SC
4
1
W
18.10.24
H2H
Orense SC
Libertad
1
0
L
27.04.24
H2H
Libertad
Orense SC
1
1
D
01.10.23
H2H
Orense SC
Libertad
3
0
L
30.04.23
H2H
Libertad
Orense SC
0
0
D
Last matches: Libertad
25.08.26
Lig
Libertad
Macara
1
0
W
10.08.26
Lig
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
2
1
W
21.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
1
0
W
15.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
04.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
3
L
16.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
02.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
W
21.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
07.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
2
2
D
19.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
08.03.26
Lig
Libertad
LDU de Quito
2
1
W
24.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
0
W
H2H at home: Libertad
01.08.26
H2H
Libertad
Orense SC
3
0
W
05.10.25
H2H
Libertad
Orense SC
2
0
W
15.03.25
H2H
Libertad
Orense SC
4
1
W
27.04.24
H2H
Libertad
Orense SC
1
1
D
30.04.23
H2H
Libertad
Orense SC
0
0
D
Last matches: Orense SC
23.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Barcelona SC
0
3
L
09.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Delfin SC
1
1
D
20.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
1
2
L
11.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Manta FC
0
0
D
01.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
LDU de Quito
0
3
L
19.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Macara
2
1
W
22.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
3
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
0
2
L
24.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Aucas
2
3
L
15.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Emelec
1
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Orense SC
Tecnico Universitario
1
1
D
H2H away: Orense SC
01.08.26
H2H
Libertad
Orense SC
3
0
L
05.10.25
H2H
Libertad
Orense SC
2
0
L
15.03.25
H2H
Libertad
Orense SC
4
1
L
27.04.24
H2H
Libertad
Orense SC
1
1
D
30.04.23
H2H
Libertad
Orense SC
0
0
D

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 22 1 3 64:26 38 67
W W W W W
2 26 13 5 8 30:26 4 44
W L W W L
3 26 12 7 7 45:23 22 43
W D L W D
4 26 12 6 8 33:26 7 42
L D W W W
5 26 12 5 9 26:20 6 41
W W L W W
6 26 10 9 7 28:20 8 39
W D L D L
7 26 10 7 9 29:29 0 37
W D W W W
8 26 9 8 9 28:28 0 35
L W L D W
9 26 8 9 9 32:34 -2 33
D D W W L
10 26 8 9 9 25:29 -4 33
W D D L D
11 26 9 5 12 22:32 -10 32
D L L L W
12 26 8 6 12 30:39 -9 30
L W D L L
13 26 8 8 10 21:31 -10 29
L W D L L
14 26 8 2 16 23:37 -14 26
L L L L W
15 26 6 6 14 17:28 -11 24
L L D L L
16 26 4 5 17 12:37 -25 17
L L W L L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs