ECUADOR LIGA PRO
01.08.2026 00:00
Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Referee: B. L. Salazar
Libertad
Match Timeline
Orense SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
38'
V. Branda · Assist: D. Coronel
Libertad
45'
A. Chere
Libertad
🔄
46'
R. Jaramilo ↔ E. Pluas
Orense SC
🔄
60'
V. Branda ↔ G. J. Cortez Casierra
Libertad
🔄
60'
D. Coronel ↔ C. Orejuela
Libertad
🔄
60'
A. Chere ↔ E. Caicedo
Libertad
🔄
69'
G. Rostagno ↔ E. S. Zambrano Pesantez
Orense SC
🔄
73'
J. Bravo ↔ X. E. Pineda Arana
Libertad
🔄
81'
C. Valencia ↔ J. Estacio
Libertad
82'
G. J. Cortez Casierra · Assist: E. Caicedo
Libertad

Libertad vs Orense SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 44.5%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
44.5%
-
BTTS No
55%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
70.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 1-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Libertad Win 44.5%
Draw 16.5%
Orense SC Win 39%
Expected Goals (xG)
Libertad1.15
Orense SC1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Libertad Libertad
WWDLW
21 GF / 26 GA
Orense SC Orense SC
WLDWL
27 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
0.95
Average Goals Scored
1.23
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
10
BTTS Yes
15
9
Over 2.5
13
3.5
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Libertad Libertad 22 matches
Orense SC Orense SC 22 matches
Libertad Statistic Orense SC
7 Wins 7
6 Draws 5
9 Losses 10
21 Goals For 27
26 Goals Against 32
0.95 Avg Goals Scored 1.23
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
10 BTTS Yes 15
13 Over 1.5 19
9 Over 2.5 13
4 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 5
3.5 Shots On Goal 3.86
10.32 Total Shots 10
3.59 Corners 3.77
45.5% Ball Possession 47.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Orense SC. Orense SC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Orense SC having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Libertad Analysis

So far, Libertad have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 24 points from 21 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 19:26 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Vilington Branda (4 goals), Gabriel Cortez (3 goals), Ivan Zambrano (3 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Cortez (4 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), Vilington Branda (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Orense SC Analysis

Orense SC sit 10 with 26 points after 21 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 9 defeats with a 25:29 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Agustin Herrera (5 goals), Sergio Vásquez (3 goals), Erick Zambrano (2 goals), with creative support from Erick Zambrano (3 assists), Agustin Herrera (2 assists), Sergio Vásquez (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Libertad won 4 times, Orense SC won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:11 from Libertad's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.5%)
Predicted formations: Libertad 4-3-3 / Orense SC 4-4-2
H2H summary: Libertad wins 4, draws 2, Orense SC wins 4

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 23 2 4 70:31 39 71
W L D W W
2 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
3 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
4 29 13 9 7 49:26 23 48
W D D W D
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 29 11 10 8 31:24 7 43
D W L W D
7 29 11 8 10 31:31 0 41
W D L W D
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L W D W L
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 29 9 6 14 35:45 -10 33
W L L L W
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 29 7 6 16 18:30 -12 27
L W L L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs