CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Ester Roa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 65%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
65%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Universidad de Concepcion Win 39.2%
Draw 25.8%
A. Italiano Win 35%
Expected Goals (xG)
Universidad de Concepcion1.14
A. Italiano1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Universidad de Concepcion Universidad de Concepcion
WWDLW
20 GF / 35 GA
A. Italiano A. Italiano
WLDWL
28 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
10
BTTS Yes
11
11
Over 2.5
14
3.87
Shots on Goal
3.19

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Universidad de Concepcion Universidad de Concepcion 20 matches
A. Italiano A. Italiano 22 matches
Universidad de Concepcion Statistic A. Italiano
6 Wins 8
5 Draws 4
9 Losses 10
20 Goals For 28
35 Goals Against 30
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
10 BTTS Yes 11
14 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 14
5 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 7
3.87 Shots On Goal 3.19
12.93 Total Shots 11.31
4.93 Corners 4
48.5% Ball Possession 51.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward A. Italiano having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors A. Italiano. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Universidad de Concepcion Analysis

Universidad de Concepcion are currently 11 in the standings with 19 points from 15 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 13:26 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Cecilio Waterman (3 goals), Jeison Fuentealba (1 goals), Osvaldo González (1 goals), with creative support from Yerco Oyanedel (2 assists), Agustín Urzi (2 assists), Bryan Ogaz (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

A. Italiano Analysis

So far, A. Italiano have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 16 points from 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the 18:21 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Michael Vadulli (2 goals), Diego Coelho (2 goals), Giovani Chiaverano (1 goals), with creative support from Giovani Chiaverano (1 assists), Esteban Matus (1 assists), Federico Mateos (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Universidad de Concepcion won 3 times, A. Italiano won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:9 from Universidad de Concepcion's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (74.2%)
Predicted formations: Universidad de Concepcion - / A. Italiano 4-1-3-2
H2H summary: Universidad de Concepcion wins 3, draws 1, A. Italiano wins 2
Last matches: Universidad de Concepcion
05.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Rangers de Talca
2
0
W
01.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
0
1
L
28.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Curico Unido
2
2
D
25.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
2
4
L
20.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Rangers de Talca
1
2
L
14.06.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
U. Catolica
1
5
L
30.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Union La Calera
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
2
2
D
16.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
O'Higgins
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Colo Colo
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Limache
0
3
L
13.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Cobresal
1
0
W
07.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Huachipato
1
5
L
15.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Palestino
1
0
W
09.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Everton de Vina
0
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
1
1
D
15.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Concepción
2
1
W
06.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
0
3
L
31.01.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
Last matches: A. Italiano
26.07.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
11.07.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Magallanes
1
0
W
05.07.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Santa Cruz
1
2
L
30.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Palestino
3
2
W
27.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Magallanes
2
1
W
24.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Palestino
2
1
W
19.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Santa Cruz
0
1
L
13.06.26
Pri
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
1
1
D
01.06.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Palestino
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Cobresal
2
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Coquimbo Unido
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Deportes Limache
2
2
D
20.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Huachipato
2
3
L
11.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
U. Catolica
3
4
L
03.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
O'Higgins
1
2
L
13.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Concepción
3
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Colo Colo
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
0
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Everton de Vina
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Nublense
0
1
L
H2H: Universidad de Concepcion vs A. Italiano
06.02.26
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Concepcion
3
0
L
12.12.20
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
3
1
W
15.03.20
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Concepcion
1
1
D
07.12.19
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Concepcion
0
0
D
06.04.19
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
1
0
W
29.07.18
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Concepcion
4
1
L
07.04.18
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
1
0
W
Last matches: Universidad de Concepcion
05.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Rangers de Talca
2
0
W
01.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
0
1
L
30.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Union La Calera
0
0
D
26.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Colo Colo
1
2
L
13.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Cobresal
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Palestino
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Everton de Vina
0
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Concepción
2
1
W
31.01.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
11.05.25
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Santa Cruz
0
0
D
22.03.25
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Curico Unido
1
1
D
31.01.25
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
2
3
L
03.07.24
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Linares Unido
0
0
D
27.09.23
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Magallanes
1
3
L
15.08.23
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Temuco
1
2
L
18.07.23
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Rangers de Talca
2
0
W
02.07.23
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Fernández Vial
1
0
W
17.08.22
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Magallanes
0
2
L
18.06.22
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
4
3
W
12.06.19
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Valdivia
1
1
D
H2H at home: Universidad de Concepcion
12.12.20
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
3
1
W
06.04.19
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
1
0
W
07.04.18
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
1
0
W
Last matches: A. Italiano
11.07.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Magallanes
1
0
W
05.07.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Santa Cruz
1
2
L
24.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Palestino
2
1
W
01.06.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Palestino
0
0
D
16.05.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Coquimbo Unido
0
3
L
20.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Huachipato
2
3
L
03.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
O'Higgins
1
2
L
27.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
0
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Nublense
0
1
L
30.01.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
0
0
D
05.10.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Huachipato
2
4
L
09.07.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Curico Unido
1
0
W
07.06.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Temuco
2
1
W
06.04.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Concepción
0
0
D
21.03.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Union Espanola
0
0
D
27.01.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Palestino
2
0
W
23.06.24
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Santa Cruz
1
1
D
15.06.24
Cop
A. Italiano
Recoleta
3
1
W
09.04.23
Cop
A. Italiano
Recoleta
3
2
W
20.08.22
Cop
A. Italiano
U. Catolica
0
3
L
H2H away: A. Italiano
12.12.20
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
3
1
L
06.04.19
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
1
0
L
07.04.18
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
1
0
L

Standings

Regular Season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 13 0 3 32:13 19 39
W W W W W
2 16 8 3 5 38:23 15 27
D W W L W
3 16 7 6 3 19:11 8 27
W W D W L
4 16 6 7 3 20:19 1 25
W D W D L
5 15 7 3 5 22:18 4 24
D W D W L
6 16 7 3 6 26:25 1 24
D D L L W
7 16 7 3 6 23:23 0 24
L W D W W
8 16 6 3 7 31:26 5 21
L L L L L
9 16 5 5 6 17:17 0 20
D L W D W
10 16 6 2 8 19:24 -5 20
L L D L L
11 16 4 7 5 24:28 -4 19
D D L W L
12 16 5 4 7 19:24 -5 19
D D D L L
13 15 5 4 6 13:26 -13 19
L D D W L
14 16 5 2 9 16:23 -7 17
W W L W L
15 16 4 4 8 19:23 -4 16
L D D W L
16 16 3 2 11 20:35 -15 11
D L L L W