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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
18.10.2026 07:00
Machida GION Stadium

Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.9%
Odds 1.87
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.12
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.9%
1.87 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.95 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.12 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.6%
1.50 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.88 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Machida Zelvia Win 72.9%
Draw 4.6%
Avispa Fukuoka Win 22.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Machida Zelvia2.04
Avispa Fukuoka1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia
WWDLW
22 GF / 10 GA
Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka
WLDWL
11 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
2.44
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
7
BTTS Yes
5
6
Over 2.5
5
5.11
Shots on Goal
4.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 9 matches
Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 9 matches
Machida Zelvia Statistic Avispa Fukuoka
6 Wins 2
2 Draws 1
1 Losses 6
22 Goals For 11
10 Goals Against 13
2.44 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
7 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 6
6 Over 2.5 5
5 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 1
0 Failed To Score 3
5.11 Shots On Goal 4.89
13.67 Total Shots 12.78
4.44 Corners 4.44
49.2% Ball Possession 40.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Machida Zelvia's more proactive style and Avispa Fukuoka's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Avispa Fukuoka arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Machida Zelvia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 20 points compared to Avispa Fukuoka in 16 on 7, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Avispa Fukuoka. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Machida Zelvia Analysis

Machida Zelvia approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 20 points after 9 outings. They have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, with a 22:10 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Koki Ogawa (3 goals), Y. Soma (2 goals), H. Nakamura (2 goals), with creative support from Y. Soma (3 assists), Yuta Nakayama (2 assists), M. Duke (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Avispa Fukuoka Analysis

With 7 points from 9 games and a place of 16, Avispa Fukuoka still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 11:13, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through S. Morooka (3 goals), Y. Tsujioka (1 goals), Y. Hashimoto (1 goals), with creative support from D. Fukazawa (2 assists), S. Morooka (1 assists), K. Shiihashi (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Machida Zelvia won 5 times, Avispa Fukuoka won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:13 from Machida Zelvia's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Machida Zelvia 3-4-2-1 / Avispa Fukuoka 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Machida Zelvia wins 5, draws 6, Avispa Fukuoka wins 4

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 25:6 19 23
W W W W L
2 10 7 2 1 21:8 13 23
W W W W W
3 10 7 0 3 22:17 5 21
L W W W L
4 9 6 2 1 22:10 12 20
W L D W W
5 10 6 1 3 21:16 5 19
W W D L L
6 9 6 1 2 14:9 5 19
L W W W W
7 10 4 4 2 21:16 5 16
W L D W W
8 10 4 4 2 13:9 4 16
D D W D W
9 10 5 0 5 17:21 -4 15
W L W L W
10 10 4 2 4 10:11 -1 14
D W W W L
11 9 4 1 4 12:12 0 13
L L W W W
12 10 4 0 6 12:16 -4 12
W W L L L
13 10 3 3 4 9:16 -7 12
L D D L D
14 10 2 3 5 12:14 -2 9
L L L L D
15 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D D W L
16 10 2 2 6 11:19 -8 8
L L W L L
17 9 2 1 6 11:13 -2 7
W L L D L
18 10 1 4 5 10:18 -8 7
D L L L L
19 10 1 3 6 8:19 -11 6
D D L D W
20 10 0 4 6 4:18 -14 4
L L L D D
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League