Atletico-MG vs Gremio Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
63.4%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
78.9%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
70.3%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
84.8%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Atletico-MG
Gremio
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Atletico-MG
21 matches
Gremio
24 matches
| Atletico-MG | Statistic | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Wins | 8 |
| 5 | Draws | 7 |
| 8 | Losses | 9 |
| 27 | Goals For | 30 |
| 27 | Goals Against | 31 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.25 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.29 |
| 10 | BTTS Yes | 16 |
| 14 | Over 1.5 | 19 |
| 10 | Over 2.5 | 12 |
| 7 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 4 | Clean Sheets | 5 |
| 7 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 4.33 | Shots On Goal | 3.76 |
| 13.29 | Total Shots | 11.29 |
| 4.81 | Corners | 4.29 |
| 48.2% | Ball Possession | 49.7% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Gremio. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico-MG expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Gremio in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gremio having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.
Atletico-MG are currently 10 in the standings with 28 points from 20 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, while the 25:25 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Victor Hugo (4 goals), Tomás Cuello (2 goals), M. Cassierra (2 goals), with creative support from Hulk (3 assists), Bernard (2 assists), Renan Lodi (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.
Gremio approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 22 points from 20 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 22:26 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), Tetê (2 goals), Gabriel Mec (2 goals), with creative support from Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Cristian Pavón (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico-MG won 6 times, Gremio won 8 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:24 from Atletico-MG's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 53:22 | 31 | 57 |
W
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 2 | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 47:21 | 26 | 56 |
W
D
D
W
L
|
|
| 3 | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:31 | 10 | 46 |
D
L
D
W
D
|
|
| 4 | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 42:33 | 9 | 46 |
W
W
W
W
D
|
|
| 5 | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 41:35 | 6 | 45 |
L
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 39:39 | 0 | 42 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 7 |
Atletico-MG
Home
|
26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 35:31 | 4 | 39 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
| 8 | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 37:38 | -1 | 38 |
D
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 9 | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 32:29 | 3 | 36 |
D
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 10 | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39:39 | 0 | 35 |
W
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 11 | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 31:30 | 1 | 33 |
L
W
W
L
D
|
|
| 12 | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 27:39 | -12 | 33 |
D
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 13 | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 28:29 | -1 | 32 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 38:41 | -3 | 32 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 15 | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 31:42 | -11 | 29 |
D
W
L
D
D
|
|
| 16 |
Gremio
Away
|
26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28:35 | -7 | 28 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
| 17 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29:41 | -12 | 28 |
W
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 18 | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 30:35 | -5 | 28 |
W
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 19 | 27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 31:45 | -14 | 23 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 20 | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 28:52 | -24 | 17 |
L
W
L
W
D
|