BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
MRV Arena
Referee: B. Arleu
Atletico-MG
Match Timeline
Gremio
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
19'
Vitor Hugo · Assist: Igor Gomes
Atletico-MG
🔄
31'
Igor Gomes ↔ Bernard
Atletico-MG
🟨
39'
Cristian Pavón
Gremio
🟨
42'
Ángelo Preciado
Atletico-MG
🟨
45+2'
Mamady Cissé
Atletico-MG
🔄
46'
Gustavo Martins ↔ Walter Kannemann
Gremio
🔄
46'
J. Nardoni ↔ F. Krovinovic
Gremio
🔄
46'
C. Pavon ↔ Tete
Gremio
🟨
57'
Renan Lodi
Atletico-MG
🟨
61'
Walter Kannemann
Gremio
🔄
61'
A. Franco ↔ Maycon
Atletico-MG
🔄
61'
M. Cisse ↔ K. Castano
Atletico-MG
62'
Cuello · Assist: R. Lodi
Atletico-MG
🔄
63'
Dodi ↔ Gabriel Mec
Gremio
66'
Cuello
Atletico-MG
🟨
69'
Pedro Gabriel
Gremio
🔄
76'
Pedro Gabriel ↔ Caio Paulista
Gremio
🔄
81'
Victor Hugo ↔ A. Minda
Atletico-MG
🔄
81'
Cuello ↔ Dudu
Atletico-MG

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.4%
Odds 1.82
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 2.01
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.4%
1.82
BTTS Yes
78.9%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
2.01
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.8%
1.22
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.88
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Atletico-MG Win 63.4%
Draw 5.8%
Gremio Win 30.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico-MG1.29
Gremio1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
WWDLW
27 GF / 27 GA
Gremio Gremio
WLDWL
30 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
10
BTTS Yes
16
10
Over 2.5
12
4.14
Shots on Goal
3.76

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 21 matches
Gremio Gremio 24 matches
Atletico-MG Statistic Gremio
8 Wins 8
5 Draws 7
8 Losses 9
27 Goals For 30
27 Goals Against 31
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
10 BTTS Yes 16
14 Over 1.5 19
10 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 6
4.14 Shots On Goal 3.76
12.52 Total Shots 11.29
4.52 Corners 4.29
45.7% Ball Possession 49.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Gremio. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico-MG expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Gremio in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gremio having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Atletico-MG Analysis

Atletico-MG are currently 10 in the standings with 28 points from 20 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, while the 25:25 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Victor Hugo (4 goals), Tomás Cuello (2 goals), M. Cassierra (2 goals), with creative support from Hulk (3 assists), Bernard (2 assists), Renan Lodi (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gremio Analysis

Gremio approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 22 points from 20 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 22:26 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), Tetê (2 goals), Gabriel Mec (2 goals), with creative support from Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Cristian Pavón (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico-MG won 6 times, Gremio won 8 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:24 from Atletico-MG's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: Atletico-MG 3-4-2-1 / Gremio 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Atletico-MG wins 6, draws 1, Gremio wins 8
Stats
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Gremio Gremio
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
4
8 Corner Kicks 6
14 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 2
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Goal 1
6 Shots off Goal 4
4 Blocked Shots 4
15 Shots insidebox 6
0 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 2
480 Total passes 464
435 Passes accurate 423
2.52 expected_goals 0.41
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Atletico-MG
Formation
Gremio
Everson
Everson
A. Preciado
A. Preciado
Ruan Tressoldi
Ruan Tressoldi
Vitor Hugo
Vitor Hugo
R. Lodi
🎯
R. Lodi
M. Cisse
M. Cisse
A. Franco
A. Franco
Cuello
⚽ 2
Cuello
Victor Hugo
Victor Hugo
Igor Gomes
🎯
Igor Gomes
M. Cassierra
M. Cassierra
Weverton
Weverton
Diego Caito
Diego Caito
Gustavo Martins
Gustavo Martins
Wallace
Wallace
Pedro Gabriel
Pedro Gabriel
E. Noriega
E. Noriega
C. Pavon
C. Pavon
J. Nardoni
J. Nardoni
Dodi
Dodi
F. Amuzu
F. Amuzu
Carlos Vinicius
Carlos Vinicius
Atletico-MG 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
Everson
G
23
A. Preciado
🟨 42'
D
4
Ruan Tressoldi
D
14
Vitor Hugo
⚽ 19'
D
6
R. Lodi
🎯 62' 🟨 57'
D
39
M. Cisse
↓ 61' 🟨 45+2'
M
21
A. Franco
↓ 61'
M
28
Cuello
⚽ 62' ⚽ 66' ↓ 81'
M
30
Victor Hugo
↓ 81'
M
17
Igor Gomes
🎯 19' ↓ 31'
M
9
M. Cassierra
F
Substitutes
1
Gabriel Delfim
G
2
Natanael
D
40
Vitao
D
36
K. Pascini
D
19
Reinier
M
8
Maycon
↑ 61'
M
15
K. Castano
↑ 61'
M
25
T. Perez
M
11
Bernard
↑ 31'
M
92
Dudu
↑ 81'
F
18
T. Borbas
F
27
A. Minda
↑ 81'
F
Gremio 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
Weverton
G
27
Diego Caito
D
6
Gustavo Martins
↓ 46'
D
82
Wallace
D
54
Pedro Gabriel
↓ 76' 🟨 69'
D
8
E. Noriega
M
7
C. Pavon
↓ 46' 🟨 39'
M
5
J. Nardoni
↓ 46'
M
17
Dodi
↓ 63'
M
9
F. Amuzu
M
95
Carlos Vinicius
F
Substitutes
12
Gabriel Grando
G
14
Marcos Rocha
D
38
Caio Paulista
↑ 76'
D
4
Walter Kannemann
↑ 46' 🟨 61'
D
3
Wagner Leonardo
D
10
F. Krovinovic
↑ 46'
M
50
Bernardo Zortea
M
22
M. Braithwaite
F
99
J. Enamorado
F
21
Tete
↑ 46'
F
77
J. Cabral
F
37
Gabriel Mec
↑ 63'
F
Last matches: Atletico-MG
08.08.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Remo
2
2
D
26.07.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Palmeiras
2
1
W
21.07.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Bahia
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Corinthians
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Santos
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
02.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
0
2
L
11.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Remo
3
3
D
04.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
Last matches: Gremio
08.08.26
Ser
Gremio
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
26.07.26
Ser
Gremio
Fluminense
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Gremio
Mirassol
1
2
L
12.07.26
Fri
Gremio
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
04.07.26
Fri
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
2
L
27.06.26
Fri
Gremio
Cascavel
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Corinthians
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Santos
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Bahia
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Flamengo
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Coritiba
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Cruzeiro
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Internacional
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Remo
0
0
D
03.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Palmeiras
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
19.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vitoria
2
0
W
16.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
13.03.26
Ser
Gremio
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
H2H: Atletico-MG vs Gremio
16.08.26
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
3
0
W
26.02.26
H2H
Gremio
Atletico-MG
2
1
L
17.08.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
3
L
29.03.25
H2H
Gremio
Atletico-MG
2
1
L
09.10.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
2
1
W
01.09.24
H2H
Gremio
Atletico-MG
2
3
W
26.11.23
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
3
0
W
23.07.23
H2H
Gremio
Atletico-MG
1
0
L
10.12.21
H2H
Gremio
Atletico-MG
4
3
L
04.11.21
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
2
1
W
20.01.21
H2H
Gremio
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
27.09.20
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
3
1
W
13.10.19
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
4
L
25.05.19
H2H
Gremio
Atletico-MG
1
0
L
03.11.18
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
0
1
L
Last matches: Atletico-MG
21.07.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Bahia
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0
4
L
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
0
W
11.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Remo
3
3
D
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Palmeiras
2
2
D
H2H at home: Atletico-MG
16.08.26
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
3
0
W
17.08.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
3
L
09.10.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
2
1
W
26.11.23
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
3
0
W
04.11.21
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
2
1
W
27.09.20
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
3
1
W
13.10.19
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
4
L
03.11.18
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
0
1
L
Last matches: Gremio
17.07.26
Ser
Gremio
Mirassol
1
2
L
27.06.26
Fri
Gremio
Cascavel
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Bahia
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Cruzeiro
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Internacional
0
0
D
03.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Palmeiras
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
16.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
12.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Sao Paulo
0
2
L
28.01.26
Ser
Gremio
Fluminense
1
2
L
H2H away: Gremio
16.08.26
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
3
0
L
17.08.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
3
W
09.10.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
2
1
L
26.11.23
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
3
0
L
04.11.21
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
2
1
L
27.09.20
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
3
1
L
13.10.19
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
4
W
03.11.18
H2H
Atletico-MG
Gremio
0
1
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.40
Draw 3.65
Home 1.82
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.01
Draw 2.26
Home 2.41
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.32
Over 2.0 1.51
Over 2.25 1.76
Over 2.5 2.01
Over 2.75 2.29
Over 3.0 2.80
Over 3.5 3.49
Over 4.5 6.98
Under 1.5 3.45
Under 2.0 2.63
Under 2.25 2.11
Under 2.5 1.85
Under 2.75 1.65
Under 3.0 1.45
Under 3.5 1.31
Under 4.5 1.11
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 3.50
Home 1.80
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 2.20
Home 2.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 2.40
Home 2.10
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.5 2.00
Over 3.5 3.50
Over 4.5 6.50
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 0.5 9.50
Under 1.5 3.50
Under 2.5 1.80
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.11
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.53
Draw 3.60
Home 1.84
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.90
Draw 2.09
Home 2.38
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 2.47
Home 2.13
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.02
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.15
Over 1.5 1.27
Over 1.75 1.35
Over 2.0 1.45
Over 2.25 1.77
Over 2.5 2.00
Over 2.75 2.27
Over 3.0 2.62
Over 3.25 2.94
Over 3.5 3.24
Over 3.75 4.00
Over 4.0 5.50
Over 4.25 5.89
Over 4.5 6.25
Over 5.0 9.80
Over 5.5 12.50
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 0.5 8.70
Under 0.75 8.05
Under 1.0 7.40
Under 1.25 4.31
Under 1.5 3.18
Under 1.75 2.86
Under 2.0 2.49
Under 2.25 2.10
Under 2.5 1.84
Under 2.75 1.66
Under 3.0 1.41
Under 3.25 1.31
Under 3.5 1.26
Under 3.75 1.17
Under 4.0 1.08
Under 4.25 1.07
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.40
Draw 3.50
Home 1.79
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 2.20
Home 2.38
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.10
Draw 2.60
Home 2.14
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.29
Over 1.75 1.37
Over 2.0 1.47
Over 2.25 1.71
Over 2.5 1.95
Over 2.75 2.23
Over 3.0 2.70
Over 3.25 3.05
Over 3.5 3.40
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 13.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.50
Under 1.75 3.10
Under 2.0 2.65
Under 2.25 2.12
Under 2.5 1.84
Under 2.75 1.65
Under 3.0 1.46
Under 3.25 1.37
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.09
Under 5.5 1.01

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 14 6 3 40:19 21 48
L D W L W
2 22 13 6 3 44:19 25 45
W W D D W
3 23 12 5 6 31:20 11 41
D W D W W
4 23 10 8 5 34:28 6 38
W D D D D
5 23 10 6 7 32:32 0 36
W W W L W
6 23 8 10 5 32:28 4 34
D D D D D
7 22 9 5 8 27:23 4 32
D L D D W
8 22 9 5 8 30:27 3 32
W D W D W
9 23 8 8 7 25:22 3 32
L W D D W
10 23 8 7 8 28:30 -2 31
D W L D L
11 22 8 6 8 35:34 1 30
L D W D W
12 23 8 5 10 23:33 -10 29
W L L L D
13 22 7 6 9 27:26 1 27
D L D L L
14 22 6 7 9 32:35 -3 25
W L D L W
15 22 6 7 9 24:30 -6 25
L W D L L
16 23 5 9 9 24:28 -4 24
D D D L L
17 22 6 5 11 25:35 -10 23
L L W D W
18 23 5 8 10 27:37 -10 23
D D L W L
19 22 5 7 10 23:34 -11 22
L D D L L
20 22 1 8 13 23:46 -23 11
D L D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B