Atletico-MG vs Fluminense Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
58.3%
|
2.22 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
75.1%
|
1.91 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
77.2%
|
2.23 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.18 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
3.60 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
9.50 |
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Atletico-MG
25 matches
Fluminense
37 matches
| Atletico-MG | Statistic | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Wins | 17 |
| 6 | Draws | 13 |
| 9 | Losses | 7 |
| 32 | Goals For | 58 |
| 30 | Goals Against | 41 |
| 1.28 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.57 |
| 1.2 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.11 |
| 11 | BTTS Yes | 25 |
| 17 | Over 1.5 | 30 |
| 12 | Over 2.5 | 17 |
| 7 | Over 3.5 | 9 |
| 6 | Clean Sheets | 9 |
| 9 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 4.36 | Shots On Goal | 5.43 |
| 13.08 | Total Shots | 14.54 |
| 4.8 | Corners | 5.26 |
| 48.8% | Ball Possession | 60.1% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fluminense. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.
From their first 24 matches, Atletico-MG have collected 36 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, while the 32:28 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Victor Hugo (4 goals), Tomás Cuello (4 goals), Reinier (3 goals), with creative support from Hulk (4 assists), Renan Lodi (3 assists), Reinier (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
Placed 4 with 42 points from 25 outings, Fluminense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 11 wins, 9 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 39:32 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through John Kennedy (8 goals), Luciano Acosta (3 goals), Agustín Canobbio (3 goals), with creative support from Luciano Acosta (3 assists), Agustín Canobbio (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico-MG won 7 times, Fluminense won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:20 from Atletico-MG's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51:21 | 30 | 54 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 2 | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 45:21 | 24 | 53 |
D
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 3 | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38:28 | 10 | 45 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 4 |
Fluminense
Away
|
26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40:32 | 8 | 45 |
W
D
W
W
D
|
| 5 | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40:32 | 8 | 43 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 6 | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38:37 | 1 | 42 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 34:35 | -1 | 37 |
L
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 8 |
Atletico-MG
Home
|
25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 32:30 | 2 | 36 |
L
W
D
W
D
|
| 9 | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 31:28 | 3 | 35 |
L
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 10 | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 31:28 | 3 | 33 |
W
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 11 | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 25:37 | -12 | 32 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27:27 | 0 | 32 |
L
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 13 | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 37:38 | -1 | 32 |
W
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 14 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 37:40 | -3 | 31 |
D
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 15 | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 27:33 | -6 | 28 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 16 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29:40 | -11 | 28 |
W
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 17 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 27:40 | -13 | 25 |
L
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 18 | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 28:34 | -6 | 25 |
L
L
D
D
D
|
|
| 19 | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30:43 | -13 | 23 |
L
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 20 | 25 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 27:50 | -23 | 17 |
W
L
W
D
L
|