BRAZIL SERIE A
12.09.2026 19:00
MRV Arena

Atletico-MG vs Fluminense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.3%
Odds 2.22
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.23
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.3%
2.22
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.23
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.18
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.60
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Atletico-MG Win 58.3%
Draw 4.7%
Fluminense Win 37%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico-MG1.21
Fluminense1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
WWDLW
32 GF / 30 GA
Fluminense Fluminense
WLDWL
58 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.57
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
11
BTTS Yes
25
12
Over 2.5
17
4.36
Shots on Goal
5.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 25 matches
Fluminense Fluminense 37 matches
Atletico-MG Statistic Fluminense
10 Wins 17
6 Draws 13
9 Losses 7
32 Goals For 58
30 Goals Against 41
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
11 BTTS Yes 25
17 Over 1.5 30
12 Over 2.5 17
7 Over 3.5 9
6 Clean Sheets 9
9 Failed To Score 6
4.36 Shots On Goal 5.43
13.08 Total Shots 14.54
4.8 Corners 5.26
48.8% Ball Possession 60.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fluminense. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Atletico-MG Analysis

From their first 24 matches, Atletico-MG have collected 36 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, while the 32:28 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Victor Hugo (4 goals), Tomás Cuello (4 goals), Reinier (3 goals), with creative support from Hulk (4 assists), Renan Lodi (3 assists), Reinier (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Fluminense Analysis

Placed 4 with 42 points from 25 outings, Fluminense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 11 wins, 9 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 39:32 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through John Kennedy (8 goals), Luciano Acosta (3 goals), Agustín Canobbio (3 goals), with creative support from Luciano Acosta (3 assists), Agustín Canobbio (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico-MG won 7 times, Fluminense won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:20 from Atletico-MG's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: Atletico-MG 4-2-3-1 / Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atletico-MG 5, Fluminense 4
H2H summary: Atletico-MG wins 7, draws 3, Fluminense wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 16 6 4 51:21 30 54
W W W L W
2 26 15 8 3 45:21 24 53
D D W L D
3 26 13 6 7 38:28 10 45
L D W D W
4 26 12 9 5 40:32 8 45
W D W W D
5 26 11 10 5 40:32 8 43
W W W D D
6 26 12 6 8 38:37 1 42
W L W W W
7 26 10 7 9 34:35 -1 37
L W W D W
8 25 10 6 9 32:30 2 36
L W D W D
9 25 10 5 10 31:28 3 35
L L W D L
10 25 9 6 10 31:28 3 33
W W L D L
11 26 9 5 12 25:37 -12 32
W L L W L
12 26 8 8 10 27:27 0 32
L L L L W
13 25 8 8 9 37:38 -1 32
W W D W L
14 25 8 7 10 37:40 -3 31
D L L L D
15 25 7 7 11 27:33 -6 28
L W L L W
16 26 7 7 12 29:40 -11 28
W L D D L
17 25 6 7 12 27:40 -13 25
L W L L D
18 26 5 10 11 28:34 -6 25
L L D D D
19 26 5 8 13 30:43 -13 23
L L L D D
20 25 3 8 14 27:50 -23 17
W L W D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B