COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
15.09.2026 01:00

America de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.4%
Odds 1.40
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 2.38
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.95
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.4%
1.40
BTTS Yes
58.8%
2.38
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.95
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.25
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.10
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
America de Cali Win 75.4%
Draw 10.2%
Deportivo Pasto Win 14.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
America de Cali1.48
Deportivo Pasto1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
America de Cali America de Cali
WWDLW
50 GF / 27 GA
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto
WLDWL
38 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
1.27
0.82
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
12
BTTS Yes
16
14
Over 2.5
15
4.86
Shots on Goal
3.62

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

America de Cali America de Cali 33 matches
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 30 matches
America de Cali Statistic Deportivo Pasto
18 Wins 11
7 Draws 6
8 Losses 13
50 Goals For 38
27 Goals Against 43
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
0.82 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
12 BTTS Yes 16
22 Over 1.5 23
14 Over 2.5 15
5 Over 3.5 7
17 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 8
4.86 Shots On Goal 3.62
13.72 Total Shots 11.52
3.93 Corners 4.17
55.2% Ball Possession 52.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with America de Cali expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Deportivo Pasto in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Pasto having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Deportivo Pasto. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Deportivo Pasto arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

America de Cali Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 33 points from 19 games, America de Cali bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 25:15, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Yeison Guzmán (10 goals), Dany Rosero (4 goals), T. Ángel (3 goals), with creative support from R. Carrascal (9 assists), L. Quiñones (4 assists), Yeison Guzmán (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Deportivo Pasto Analysis

With 34 points from 19 games and a place of 3, Deportivo Pasto still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 29:25 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Santiago Córdoba (5 goals), D. Chávez (2 goals), Jonathan Perlaza (2 goals), with creative support from D. Chávez (3 assists), E. Serje (2 assists), M. Gil (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, America de Cali won 6 times, Deportivo Pasto won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:18 from America de Cali's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.8%)
Predicted formations: America de Cali 4-2-3-1 / Deportivo Pasto 4-4-2
H2H summary: America de Cali wins 6, draws 5, Deportivo Pasto wins 4

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L W D D L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D D L D W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D D D D W
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D D W D D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L W D D
Post season qualification