SWEDEN ALLSVENSKAN
13.09.2026 14:30
Eleda Stadion

Malmo FF vs Orgryte IS Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.3%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Malmo FF Win 59.3%
Draw 20.8%
Orgryte IS Win 19.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Malmo FF1.74
Orgryte IS1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Malmo FF Malmo FF
WWDLW
39 GF / 37 GA
Orgryte IS Orgryte IS
WLDWL
30 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
2.11
15
BTTS Yes
14
15
Over 2.5
13
4.7
Shots on Goal
3.9

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Malmo FF Malmo FF 26 matches
Orgryte IS Orgryte IS 27 matches
Malmo FF Statistic Orgryte IS
11 Wins 5
5 Draws 8
10 Losses 14
39 Goals For 30
37 Goals Against 57
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 2.11
15 BTTS Yes 14
18 Over 1.5 23
15 Over 2.5 13
10 Over 3.5 10
9 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 9
4.7 Shots On Goal 3.9
14.15 Total Shots 11.05
4.8 Corners 4.05
56.6% Ball Possession 42.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Malmo FF's more proactive style and Orgryte IS's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Malmo FF arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 29 points compared to Orgryte IS in 15 on 14, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Malmo FF expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Orgryte IS in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Orgryte IS having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Orgryte IS. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Orgryte IS arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Malmo FF Analysis

So far, Malmo FF have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 29 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, while the 33:30 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Erik Botheim (9 goals), Sead Hakšabanović (4 goals), Adrian Skogmar (4 goals), with creative support from Sead Hakšabanović (6 assists), Erik Botheim (3 assists), Otto Rosengren (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Orgryte IS Analysis

Orgryte IS approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 14 points from 19 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 11 defeats with a 22:42 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Noah Christoffersson (8 goals), Jerome Tibbling Ugwo (3 goals), Anton Andreasson (3 goals), with creative support from Tobias Sana (5 assists), Owen Parker-Price (4 assists), William Hofvander (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Malmo FF won 0 times, Orgryte IS won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from Malmo FF's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (80.2%)
Predicted formations: Malmo FF 4-3-3 / Orgryte IS 3-4-3
H2H summary: Malmo FF wins 0, draws 1, Orgryte IS wins 0

Standings

Allsvenskan
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 14 3 3 48:27 21 45
W L L L D
2 20 12 2 6 44:19 25 38
W W W W L
3 20 11 4 5 45:19 26 37
D L W W W
4 20 8 8 4 33:29 4 32
D L W W L
5 19 9 5 5 28:27 1 32
D W W W L
6 20 8 7 5 28:21 7 31
L W D W W
7 20 9 3 8 33:30 3 30
D W L W L
8 20 8 5 7 28:34 -6 29
L W D L W
9 20 7 6 7 25:18 7 27
D W L L W
10 20 7 6 7 29:32 -3 27
W L W W D
11 20 7 5 8 28:40 -12 26
W W D L W
12 19 5 5 9 25:33 -8 20
L L L W L
13 20 5 4 11 21:30 -9 19
L L D L L
14 20 5 4 11 19:31 -12 19
W L L W W
15 20 3 6 11 23:43 -20 15
D L D L L
16 20 2 5 13 13:37 -24 11
L W D L L
Qualifying
Qualifying
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation