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ARGENTINA › PRIMERA NACIONAL
25.10.2026 18:30
Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento

Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 63.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
63.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Almirante Brown Win 36.5%
Draw 18.4%
Deportivo Moron Win 45.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almirante Brown0.92
Deportivo Moron1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almirante Brown Almirante Brown
WWDLW
28 GF / 24 GA
Deportivo Moron Deportivo Moron
WLDWL
53 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
1.47
0.71
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
10
BTTS Yes
19
7
Over 2.5
19
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almirante Brown Almirante Brown 34 matches
Deportivo Moron Deportivo Moron 36 matches
Almirante Brown Statistic Deportivo Moron
12 Wins 18
12 Draws 7
10 Losses 11
28 Goals For 53
24 Goals Against 38
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
0.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
10 BTTS Yes 19
14 Over 1.5 29
7 Over 2.5 19
4 Over 3.5 7
18 Clean Sheets 11
14 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportivo Moron. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Deportivo Moron having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Almirante Brown Analysis

Almirante Brown sit 8 with 47 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 11 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 26:22 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Deportivo Moron Analysis

Deportivo Moron approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 2 with 58 points from 33 matches. Across the season they have posted 17 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 51:34 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Almirante Brown won 1 times, Deportivo Moron won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:16 from Almirante Brown's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.6%)
H2H summary: Almirante Brown wins 1, draws 6, Deportivo Moron wins 5

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 19 8 7 38:28 10 65
W D L W W
2 34 17 9 8 48:32 16 60
W D W D W
3 34 17 7 10 51:36 15 58
L L W L L
4 34 14 12 8 47:30 17 54
D L W D W
5 34 14 12 8 41:27 14 54
D D W D W
6 34 13 12 9 30:29 1 51
W W W W L
7 34 12 12 10 28:24 4 48
D D L L L
8 34 13 9 12 34:33 1 48
L W L W W
9 34 9 14 11 26:25 1 41
D L L W L
10 34 10 10 14 33:36 -3 40
L W D L W
11 34 10 10 14 30:40 -10 40
L W D D L
12 34 8 15 11 31:39 -8 39
W D W L L
13 34 8 14 12 25:32 -7 38
D L D L W
14 34 9 11 14 28:37 -9 38
D L W W L
15 34 7 16 11 23:31 -8 37
W D D D L
16 34 6 17 11 19:29 -10 35
D D L D D
17 34 8 9 17 25:35 -10 33
D W L W W
18 34 6 14 14 27:41 -14 32
L D L L D
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation