IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Regional Sports Centre
Referee: R. Hennessey
Waterford
Match Timeline
St Patrick's Athl.
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
J. Mahon
Waterford
🔄
21'
R. Palmer ↔ B. Baggley
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
32'
J. Voilas
Waterford
40'
C. Noonan · Assist: T. Lonergan
Waterford
🔄
46'
J. McClelland ↔ A. Breslin
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
51'
L. Turner
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
55'
J. Houston
Waterford
🟨
61'
J. Redmond
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
69'
L. Turner ↔ C. Forrester
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
77'
J. Brown ↔ D. Nugent
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
78'
R. Edmondson ↔ S. Rooney
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
83'
P. Amond ↔ D. McMenamy
Waterford
🔄
89'
C. Noonan ↔ T. Coyle
Waterford
90+5'
A. Keena
St Patrick's Athl.

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 94.7%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
94.7%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
70.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 3-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Waterford Win 50.8%
Draw 5.3%
St Patrick's Athl. Win 43.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Waterford1.22
St Patrick's Athl.1.76
Recent Form (Last 5)
Waterford Waterford
WWDLW
45 GF / 56 GA
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
WLDWL
42 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1.87
Average Goals Conceded
0.8
19
BTTS Yes
9
17
Over 2.5
10
3.57
Shots on Goal
5.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Waterford Waterford 30 matches
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. 25 matches
Waterford Statistic St Patrick's Athl.
9 Wins 13
8 Draws 6
13 Losses 6
45 Goals For 42
56 Goals Against 20
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1.87 Avg Goals Conceded 0.8
19 BTTS Yes 9
25 Over 1.5 18
17 Over 2.5 10
14 Over 3.5 8
3 Clean Sheets 10
9 Failed To Score 9
3.57 Shots On Goal 5.17
12.09 Total Shots 15.91
4.74 Corners 5.52
37.8% Ball Possession 52%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by St Patrick's Athl.'s more proactive style and Waterford's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward St Patrick's Athl.. St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 38 points while Waterford sit 10 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Waterford expected to line up in 5-3-2 and St Patrick's Athl. in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward St Patrick's Athl. having the stronger overall control.

Waterford Analysis

Waterford sit 10 with 17 points after 22 league matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 28:44 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Tom Lonergan (5 goals), Pádraig Amond (4 goals), John Mahon (3 goals), with creative support from Dean McMenamy (2 assists), Conan Noonan (2 assists), Evan McLaughlin (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

St Patrick's Athl. Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 38 points after 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, while the 35:19 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Ryan Edmondson (4 goals), Zac Elbouzedi (3 goals), Kian Leavy (3 goals), with creative support from Zac Elbouzedi (3 assists), Joe Redmond (2 assists), Luke Turner (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Waterford won 3 times, St Patrick's Athl. won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:25 from Waterford's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: Waterford 5-3-2 / St Patrick's Athl. 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Waterford wins 3, draws 5, St Patrick's Athl. wins 7
Stats
Waterford Waterford
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
1
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
2 Corner Kicks 3
6 Fouls 5
0 Offsides 1
32% Ball Possession 68%
8 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Goal 1
1 Shots off Goal 5
3 Blocked Shots 3
8 Shots insidebox 6
0 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
104 Total passes 277
57 Passes accurate 229
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥
Last matches: Waterford
02.08.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
0
W
25.07.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
0
0
D
03.07.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
4
2
W
26.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
2
W
19.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
3
3
D
22.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
2
L
18.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
04.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
01.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
24.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
16.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
0
5
L
Last matches: St Patrick's Athl.
02.08.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
1
1
D
24.07.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
1
1
D
14.07.26
Fri
St Patrick's Athl.
Doncaster
2
4
L
03.07.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
3
0
W
26.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
0
2
L
19.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
2
0
W
12.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
2
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
22.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
1
L
08.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
4
1
W
04.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
2
2
D
24.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
3
1
W
17.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
3
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
06.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
4
1
W
20.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
0
W
16.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
0
0
D
H2H: Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.
10.07.26
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
08.05.26
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
4
1
L
20.03.26
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
24.10.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
1
1
D
03.08.25
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
23.05.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
2
D
28.03.25
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
2
L
20.09.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
3
0
L
04.07.24
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
19.04.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
1
1
D
04.03.24
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
3
1
W
11.02.23
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
31.07.22
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
3
W
19.11.21
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
13.08.21
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
1
L
Last matches: Waterford
02.08.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
0
W
19.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
W
18.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
04.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
24.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
06.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
0
1
L
20.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
06.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Bohemians
1
4
L
20.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Kerry
3
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Riverstown FC
3
1
W
H2H at home: Waterford
10.07.26
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
20.03.26
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
03.08.25
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
28.03.25
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
2
L
04.07.24
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
04.03.24
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
3
1
W
11.02.23
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
19.11.21
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
Last matches: St Patrick's Athl.
14.07.26
Fri
St Patrick's Athl.
Doncaster
2
4
L
26.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
0
2
L
29.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
22.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
2
2
D
17.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
3
1
W
06.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
0
2
L
20.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
3
2
W
20.02.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
08.02.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
0
0
D
16.01.26
Fri
St Patrick's Athl.
Bray Wanderers
3
0
W
14.08.25
UEF
St Patrick's Athl.
Beşiktaş
2
3
L
31.07.25
UEF
St Patrick's Athl.
Kalju Nomme
2
2
D
17.07.25
UEF
St Patrick's Athl.
Hegelmann Litauen
2
0
W
H2H away: St Patrick's Athl.
10.07.26
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
20.03.26
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
W
03.08.25
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
W
28.03.25
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
2
W
04.07.24
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
L
04.03.24
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
3
1
L
11.02.23
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
W
19.11.21
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 6 5 40:22 18 51
D W W D W
2 26 12 8 6 41:22 19 44
D D D W L
3 26 12 8 6 41:28 13 44
D W W W L
4 26 9 10 7 40:38 2 37
D D L L L
5 25 8 10 7 35:36 -1 34
L W D L D
6 26 6 12 8 33:32 1 30
D L W D L
7 25 7 8 10 33:40 -7 29
D D W L L
8 26 6 9 11 31:43 -12 27
D D W L L
9 26 5 10 11 34:47 -13 25
W D D W W
10 26 5 7 14 23:43 -20 22
D D L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation