BRAZIL SERIE A
20.09.2026 19:00
Estadio Manoel Barradas
Referee: Matheus Delgado Candancan
Vitoria
Match Timeline
Cruzeiro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
39'
Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira · Assist: Matheuzinho
Vitoria
🟨
41'
Jonathan Jesus
Cruzeiro
🔄
45'
Fagner ↔ William
Cruzeiro
🔄
45'
Wesley Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira ↔ Felipe Morais
Cruzeiro
🔄
45'
Matheusinho ↔ Emanuel Brítez
Vitoria
🔄
45'
Caíque Gonçalves ↔ Zé Vitor
Vitoria
46'
Keny arroyo · Assist: Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro
🔄
56'
Gabriel Rojas ↔ Lucas Villalba
Cruzeiro
🔄
56'
Zé Lucas ↔ Matheus Henrique
Cruzeiro
66'
Lucas Villalba · Assist: Keny arroyo
Cruzeiro
🔄
69'
Erick ↔ Lucas Silva
Vitoria
🟨
78'
Gerson
Cruzeiro
🔄
81'
Gerson ↔ Fabrício Bruno
Cruzeiro
🔄
83'
Matheuzinho ↔ Renato Kayzer
Vitoria
🔄
83'
Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira ↔ bruno alex
Vitoria
🟨
87'
Felipe Morais
Cruzeiro
90+7'
Matheus Pereira · Assist: Keny arroyo
Cruzeiro

Vitoria vs Cruzeiro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 94.6%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
94.6%
1.36
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.75
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
2.03
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.20
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Vitoria Win 44.7%
Draw 5.5%
Cruzeiro Win 49.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitoria1.12
Cruzeiro1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vitoria Vitoria
WWDLW
27 GF / 39 GA
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WLDWL
52 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.41
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
10
BTTS Yes
24
10
Over 2.5
22
4.04
Shots on Goal
4.54

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vitoria Vitoria 27 matches
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 37 matches
Vitoria Statistic Cruzeiro
9 Wins 16
6 Draws 9
12 Losses 12
27 Goals For 52
39 Goals Against 48
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
10 BTTS Yes 24
21 Over 1.5 30
10 Over 2.5 22
7 Over 3.5 10
10 Clean Sheets 10
9 Failed To Score 5
4.04 Shots On Goal 4.54
11.67 Total Shots 14
4.44 Corners 4.77
44.1% Ball Possession 54.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Cruzeiro's more proactive style and Vitoria's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cruzeiro. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Cruzeiro look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Vitoria Analysis

With 32 points from 26 games and a place of 11, Vitoria still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 12 defeats with a 25:37 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Rene (6 goals), Renato Kayzer (4 goals), Erick (3 goals), with creative support from Erick (4 assists), Gabriel Baralhas (3 assists), D. Tarzia (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 9 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cruzeiro Analysis

Cruzeiro sit 6 with 42 points after 26 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, while the 38:37 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Going forward they rely heavily on Matheus Pereira (7 goals), Kaio Jorge (7 goals), Christian (4 goals), with creative support from Matheus Pereira (4 assists), Fágner (4 assists), Christian (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vitoria won 1 times, Cruzeiro won 8 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:23 from Vitoria's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.6%)
Predicted formations: Vitoria 4-2-3-1 / Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Vitoria 11, Cruzeiro 3
H2H summary: Vitoria wins 1, draws 6, Cruzeiro wins 8

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 27 11 7 9 36:32 4 40
D W L W D
8 27 10 8 9 41:40 1 38
W W W W D
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 27 10 6 11 33:31 2 36
L D L L W
11 27 10 6 11 32:30 2 36
W L W W L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B