BRAZIL › SERIE A
02.05.2026 21:30
Barradao
Referee: R. Klein
Vitoria
Match Timeline
Coritiba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
15'
Rene · Assist: Luan Candido
Vitoria
🟨
23'
Thiago Santos
Coritiba
🟥
26'
Tiago Cóser
Coritiba
⚽
28'
Ze Vitor · Assist: Erick
Vitoria
🟨
32'
Matheuzinho
Vitoria
⚽
45'
Pedro Rocha · Assist: Tinga
Coritiba
🟨
46'
Zé Vitor
Vitoria
🔄
46'
Matheuzinho ↔ D. Tarzia
Vitoria
⚽
55'
D. Tarzia · Assist: Rene
Vitoria
⚽
61'
Erick
Vitoria
🔄
62'
S. Gomez ↔ Vini Paulista
Coritiba
🔄
62'
Lucas Ronier ↔ Joao Pedro Chermont
Coritiba
🔄
62'
Pedro Rocha ↔ Renato Marques
Coritiba
🔄
64'
Caique Goncalves ↔ Ronald Lopes
Vitoria
🔄
64'
Ze Vitor ↔ Edenilson
Vitoria
🔄
75'
Caca ↔ Neris
Vitoria
🔄
75'
Josue ↔ Gustavo
Coritiba
🔄
79'
Erick ↔ Marinho
Vitoria
🟨
86'
Renê Sousa
Vitoria
🔄
87'
J. Lavega ↔ Joao Almeida
Coritiba

Vitoria vs Coritiba Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
71.9%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Vitoria Win 50.3%
Draw 4.2%
Coritiba Win 45.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitoria1
Coritiba1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vitoria Vitoria
WWDLW
12 GF / 17 GA
Coritiba Coritiba
WLDWL
15 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.15
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1
5
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
3
3.83
Shots on Goal
3.15

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vitoria Vitoria 12 matches
Coritiba Coritiba 13 matches
Vitoria Statistic Coritiba
4 Wins 5
3 Draws 4
5 Losses 4
12 Goals For 15
17 Goals Against 13
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1
5 BTTS Yes 5
10 Over 1.5 8
4 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 2
5 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 4
3.83 Shots On Goal 3.15
10.75 Total Shots 10.62
3.92 Corners 3.15
42.4% Ball Possession 38.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Coritiba's more proactive style and Vitoria's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Coritiba. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vitoria expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Coritiba in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Coritiba having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Vitoria Analysis

Vitoria are currently 13 in the standings with 15 points from 12 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, while the 12:17 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Gabriel Baralhas (2 goals), Matheuzinho (2 goals), Ramon (2 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Baralhas (3 assists), Erick (2 assists), Matheuzinho (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Coritiba Analysis

So far, Coritiba have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 19 points from 13 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 15:13 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Breno Lopes (5 goals), J. Lavega (3 goals), Pedro Rocha (3 goals), with creative support from Josué (4 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Breno Lopes (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Vitoria won 5 times, Coritiba won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:12 from Vitoria's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.08 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Vitoria 4-3-3 / Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Vitoria 14, Coritiba 8
H2H summary: Vitoria wins 5, draws 4, Coritiba wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 27 11 7 9 36:32 4 40
D W L W D
8 27 10 8 9 41:40 1 38
W W W W D
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 27 10 6 11 33:31 2 36
L D L L W
11 27 10 6 11 32:30 2 36
W L W W L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B