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BRAZIL › SERIE A
07.10.2026 23:00
Estadio Manoel Barradas
Referee: Edina Alves Batista, Brazil
Vitoria
Match Timeline
Chapecoense-sc
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
18'
Erick · Assist: Matheuzinho
Vitoria
🟨
22'
Kauan
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
44'
Luan Cândido
Vitoria
🟨
45+2'
Camilo
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
46'
Bruno Tubarão ↔ Fernando
Chapecoense-sc
⚽
53'
Matheuzinho · Assist: Mateusinho
Vitoria
⚽
61'
Erick · Assist: Matheuzinho
Vitoria
🟨
62'
Diego Tarzia
Vitoria
🔄
62'
Yago Felipe ↔ Miguel Carvalho
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
62'
Maurício Garcez ↔ Yannick Bolasie
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
66'
Diego Tarzia ↔ Lucas Silva
Vitoria
🔄
70'
Giovanni Augusto ↔ Bruno Matias
Chapecoense-sc
⚽
74'
Matheuzinho
Vitoria
🔄
75'
Marcinho ↔ Franco Rossi
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
76'
Caique Gonçalves ↔ Walace
Vitoria
🔄
76'
Matheuzinho ↔ Tomás Pochettino
Vitoria
🔄
77'
Erick ↔ Ignacio Laquintana
Vitoria
🔄
80'
Renê Sousa ↔ Renato Kayzer
Vitoria
🟨
90'
Fernando
Chapecoense-sc

Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 67.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 83.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
67.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
83.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
65.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Vitoria Win 46.9%
Draw 20.7%
Chapecoense-sc Win 32.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitoria1.36
Chapecoense-sc1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vitoria Vitoria
WWDLW
28 GF / 42 GA
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
WLDWL
32 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.9
11
BTTS Yes
20
11
Over 2.5
16
4.18
Shots on Goal
3.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vitoria Vitoria 28 matches
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 29 matches
Vitoria Statistic Chapecoense-sc
9 Wins 4
6 Draws 10
13 Losses 15
28 Goals For 32
42 Goals Against 55
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.9
11 BTTS Yes 20
22 Over 1.5 26
11 Over 2.5 16
8 Over 3.5 9
10 Clean Sheets 2
9 Failed To Score 8
4.18 Shots On Goal 3.44
12 Total Shots 12.67
4.57 Corners 3.89
44% Ball Possession 42.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Vitoria appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Chapecoense-sc. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Chapecoense-sc. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Vitoria have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Vitoria Analysis

Vitoria sit 13 with 33 points after 28 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 6 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 28:42 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Rene (9 goals), Renato Kayzer (4 goals), Erick (3 goals), with creative support from Erick (5 assists), Gabriel Baralhas (3 assists), Matheuzinho (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 9 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Walace, Camutanga, Edu unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Chapecoense-sc Analysis

Chapecoense-sc sit 20 with 18 points after 27 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats with a 29:53 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Marcinho (5 goals), Walter Clar (3 goals), Jean Carlos (2 goals), with creative support from Giovanni Augusto (4 assists), Bruno Pacheco (3 assists), Marcinho (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Max Alves, Rafael Carvalheira, Robert Conceicao unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Vitoria won 5 times, Chapecoense-sc won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:12 from Vitoria's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.3%)
Predicted formations: Vitoria 4-2-3-1 / Chapecoense-sc 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Vitoria 10, Chapecoense-sc 6
H2H summary: Vitoria wins 5, draws 4, Chapecoense-sc wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 31 9 9 13 36:44 -8 36
W L D W D
15 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 31 7 11 13 33:40 -7 32
L D W L W
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B