BRAZIL SERIE A
16.08.2026 21:30
Estádio Manoel Barradas
Referee: Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva, Brazil
Vitoria
Match Timeline
Botafogo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
Huguinho
Botafogo
27'
Matheuzinho
Vitoria
🔄
28'
Huguinho ↔ Junior Santos
Botafogo
🟨
29'
Álvaro Montoro
Botafogo
VAR
32'
Matheuzinho
Vitoria
🟨
45+3'
Ramon
Vitoria
🟨
51'
Emmanuel Martínez
Vitoria
🔄
53'
Matheus Martins ↔ Danilo Pereira
Botafogo
🔄
59'
Ramon ↔ Jamerson
Vitoria
🔄
59'
Emmanuel Martinez ↔ Walace
Vitoria
🟨
61'
Lucas Monzón
Botafogo
🔄
65'
D. Tarzia ↔ T. Pochettino
Vitoria
🔄
65'
Rene ↔ Renato Kayzer
Vitoria
🔄
72'
C. Medina ↔ S. Rodriguez
Botafogo
🔄
72'
Danilo Santos ↔ D. Andrade
Botafogo
🔄
78'
Matheuzinho ↔ Marinho
Vitoria

Vitoria vs Botafogo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 43.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
43.4%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vitoria Win 40.3%
Draw 16.2%
Botafogo Win 43.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitoria1.18
Botafogo1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vitoria Vitoria
WWDLW
22 GF / 33 GA
Botafogo Botafogo
WLDWL
38 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.52
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
8
BTTS Yes
17
8
Over 2.5
15
4
Shots on Goal
5.04

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vitoria Vitoria 22 matches
Botafogo Botafogo 25 matches
Vitoria Statistic Botafogo
7 Wins 9
5 Draws 7
10 Losses 9
22 Goals For 38
33 Goals Against 36
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.52
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
8 BTTS Yes 17
18 Over 1.5 20
8 Over 2.5 15
6 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 5
4 Shots On Goal 5.04
10.77 Total Shots 13.16
4.05 Corners 4.04
44.9% Ball Possession 48.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Botafogo's more proactive style and Vitoria's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Vitoria have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vitoria expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Botafogo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Botafogo having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Botafogo. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Vitoria Analysis

Vitoria approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 26 points from 21 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 22:31, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Renê Sousa (5 goals), Renato Kayzer (4 goals), Erick (2 goals), with creative support from Erick (4 assists), Gabriel Baralhas (3 assists), Diego Tarzia (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Botafogo Analysis

From their first 20 matches, Botafogo have collected 29 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 34:32 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Danilo Santos (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), with creative support from Alex Telles (3 assists), Álvaro Montoro (3 assists), Danilo Santos (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vitoria won 2 times, Botafogo won 6 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:16 from Vitoria's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.8%)
Predicted formations: Vitoria 4-1-4-1 / Botafogo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Vitoria wins 2, draws 7, Botafogo wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
5 26 11 10 5 40:32 8 43
W W W D D
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 27 8 8 11 28:29 -1 32
L L L L L
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 26 5 8 13 30:43 -13 23
L L L D D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B