BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Vitória ES
Match Timeline
Ipatinga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
59'
Tony
Vitória ES

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 72.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
72.6%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vitória ES Win 41%
Draw 27.4%
Ipatinga Win 31.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitória ES1.08
Ipatinga1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vitória ES Vitória ES
WWDLW
12 GF / 8 GA
Ipatinga Ipatinga
WLDWL
12 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.2
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
0.9
4
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vitória ES Vitória ES 10 matches
Ipatinga Ipatinga 10 matches
Vitória ES Statistic Ipatinga
4 Wins 4
3 Draws 3
3 Losses 3
12 Goals For 12
8 Goals Against 9
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 0.9
4 BTTS Yes 5
7 Over 1.5 7
4 Over 2.5 4
1 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ipatinga having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Ipatinga.

Vitória ES Analysis

Vitória ES come into this tie placed 3 in their league with 15 points from 10 matches. The return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 12:8 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Patrick (3 goals), Tony (3 goals), Araujo (2 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Ipatinga Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Ipatinga arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 15 points after 10 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats with goals at 12:9 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Paulo Henrique (3 goals), Erick Salles (2 goals), Giovani (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Vitória ES won 1 times, Ipatinga won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:2 from Vitória ES's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (72.6%)
H2H summary: Vitória ES wins 1, draws 0, Ipatinga wins 1
Last matches: Vitória ES
27.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Ipatinga
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
0
D
30.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
2
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Porto BA
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
2
1
W
04.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
0
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Porto BA
3
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
1
L
Last matches: Ipatinga
13.07.26
Ser
Ipatinga
CSA
0
4
L
04.07.26
Ser
Ipatinga
CSA
1
0
W
27.06.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Vitória ES
2
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Operario Ferroviario
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
ABECAT Ouvidorense
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Ivinhema
3
0
W
18.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Uberlandia
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
CRAC
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
CRAC
0
1
L
25.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Uberlandia
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Ivinhema
3
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
ABECAT Ouvidorense
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Operario Ferroviario
1
1
D
H2H: Vitória ES vs Ipatinga
27.06.26
H2H
Ipatinga
Vitória ES
2
0
L
20.06.26
H2H
Vitória ES
Ipatinga
1
0
W
Last matches: Vitória ES
30.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Porto BA
3
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
1
L
H2H at home: Vitória ES
20.06.26
H2H
Vitória ES
Ipatinga
1
0
W
Last matches: Ipatinga
13.07.26
Ser
Ipatinga
CSA
0
4
L
30.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
ABECAT Ouvidorense
1
2
L
18.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Uberlandia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
CRAC
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Ivinhema
3
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Operario Ferroviario
1
1
D
H2H away: Ipatinga
20.06.26
H2H
Vitória ES
Ipatinga
1
0
L

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)