BRAZIL › SERIE B
17.05.2026 21:00
Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Referee: A. Policarpo Bento
Vila Nova
Match Timeline
Avai
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
33'
Bruno Xavier
Vila Nova
🟨
43'
Daniel Penha
Avai
🟨
45'
Douglas Teixeira
Avai
⚽
45'
Dudu · Assist: Marquinhos Gabriel
Vila Nova
🔄
46'
Jean Lucas ↔ Paulo Vitor
Avai
🔄
46'
Thayllon ↔ Walace Franca
Avai
🟨
57'
Willian Maranhão
Vila Nova
🔄
64'
Rafael Bilu ↔ Sorriso
Avai
🟨
80'
Anderson
Vila Nova
🔄
80'
Bruno Xavier ↔ Pedro Romano
Vila Nova
🟨
82'
Pedro Romano
Vila Nova
🔄
82'
Ze Ricardo ↔ Wenderson
Avai
🔄
82'
Luiz Henrique ↔ F. Avenatti
Avai
🔄
88'
Dellatorre ↔ Andre Luis
Vila Nova
🔄
88'
Nathan Camargo ↔ Elias
Vila Nova
🔄
88'
Ryan ↔ Gustavo Puskas
Vila Nova
🟨
90+2'
Elias
Vila Nova
🟨
90+3'
Guilherme Aquino
Avai

Vila Nova vs Avai Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Vila Nova Win 71%
Draw 0%
Avai Win 29%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vila Nova1.35
Avai1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WWDLW
12 GF / 10 GA
Avai Avai
WLDWL
10 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
6
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
4
3.5
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vila Nova Vila Nova 8 matches
Avai Avai 8 matches
Vila Nova Statistic Avai
3 Wins 2
4 Draws 4
1 Losses 2
12 Goals For 10
10 Goals Against 9
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
6 BTTS Yes 4
6 Over 1.5 5
4 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 2
1 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 2
3.5 Shots On Goal 3.5
12.63 Total Shots 12.63
4.63 Corners 4.5
54.9% Ball Possession 50.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Avai.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 13 points from 8 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 12:10 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Rafael Silva (3 goals), Dellatorre (2 goals), Ryan (2 goals), with creative support from Ryan (2 assists), Janderson (2 assists), Marquinhos Gabriel (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Avai Analysis

From their first 8 matches, Avai have collected 10 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 10:9 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Walace Franca (3 goals), Luiz Henrique (2 goals), F. Avenatti (1 goals), with creative support from Thayllon (2 assists), Jean Lucas (1 assists), Allyson (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vila Nova won 5 times, Avai won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:18 from Vila Nova's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Vila Nova 4-2-3-1 / Avai 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Vila Nova wins 5, draws 4, Avai wins 6

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 29 13 8 8 41:36 5 47
W D W W D
6 29 13 8 8 28:27 1 47
L L L W L
7 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
8 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 10 13 6 30:22 8 43
W D W L W
11 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
12 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
13 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
14 29 10 8 11 35:36 -1 38
L D L W W
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17
Avai Away
29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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