GERMANY › BUNDESLIGA
09.05.2026 16:30
Volkswagen Arena
Referee: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany
VfL Wolfsburg
Match Timeline
Bayern München
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
35'
Michael Olise
Bayern München
🔄
46'
L. Goretzka ↔ K. Laimer
Bayern München
🔄
46'
Kim Min-Jae ↔ D. Upamecano
Bayern München
⚽
56'
M. Olise · Assist: K. Laimer
Bayern München
🔄
60'
N. Jackson ↔ L. Diaz
Bayern München
🔄
67'
C. Eriksen ↔ M. Svanberg
VfL Wolfsburg
🔄
67'
P. Wimmer ↔ L. Majer
VfL Wolfsburg
🔄
74'
Vini Souza ↔ Y. Gerhardt
VfL Wolfsburg
🔄
74'
A. Daghim ↔ K. Shiogai
VfL Wolfsburg
🔄
76'
J. Musiala ↔ L. Karl
Bayern München
🔄
84'
H. Ito ↔ J. Tah
Bayern München
🟨
90+1'
Kento Shiogai
VfL Wolfsburg
🔄
90'
S. Kumbedi ↔ J. Lindstrom
VfL Wolfsburg

VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayern München Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 96.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
96.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
VfL Wolfsburg Win 3.6%
Draw 0%
Bayern München Win 96.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
VfL Wolfsburg1.26
Bayern München2.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg
WWDLW
42 GF / 67 GA
Bayern München Bayern München
WLDWL
161 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
3.43
2.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
24
BTTS Yes
34
21
Over 2.5
44
4
Shots on Goal
8.28

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 32 matches
Bayern München Bayern München 47 matches
VfL Wolfsburg Statistic Bayern München
6 Wins 38
8 Draws 6
18 Losses 3
42 Goals For 161
67 Goals Against 56
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 3.43
2.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
24 BTTS Yes 34
26 Over 1.5 47
21 Over 2.5 44
14 Over 3.5 34
2 Clean Sheets 13
7 Failed To Score 0
4 Shots On Goal 8.28
11.53 Total Shots 18.98
4.25 Corners 6.11
45.4% Ball Possession 65.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Bayern München's more proactive style and VfL Wolfsburg's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with VfL Wolfsburg expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Bayern München in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bayern München having the stronger overall control. Bayern München carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 83 points while VfL Wolfsburg sit 16 on 26, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Bayern München look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Bayern München.

VfL Wolfsburg Analysis

VfL Wolfsburg sit 16 with 26 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 42:67, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Amoura (8 goals), Dženan Pejčinović (7 goals), Konstantinos Koulierakis (4 goals), with creative support from C. Eriksen (8 assists), S. Kumbedi (5 assists), Maximilian Arnold (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Bayern München Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 83 points from 32 games, Bayern München bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 26 wins, 5 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 116:35, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through H. Kane (33 goals), L. Diaz (15 goals), M. Olise (14 goals), with creative support from M. Olise (19 assists), L. Diaz (13 assists), Konrad Laimer (8 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 13 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, VfL Wolfsburg won 0 times, Bayern München won 14 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:48 from VfL Wolfsburg's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 4.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: VfL Wolfsburg 3-4-2-1 / Bayern München 4-2-3-1
Missing players: VfL Wolfsburg 7, Bayern München 5
H2H summary: VfL Wolfsburg wins 0, draws 1, Bayern München wins 14

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
Champions League
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation