ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
30.05.2026 11:30
Parnu Rannastaadion
Referee: J. Lorenz
Vaprus
Match Timeline
Kalju Nomme
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
3'
M. Tambedou
Kalju Nomme
4'
H. Valja
Vaprus
🔄
7'
J. Poder ↔ M. Limberg
Vaprus
🔄
46'
M. Tambedou ↔ O. Musolitin
Kalju Nomme
🟨
50'
T. Pajo
Vaprus
52'
H. Valja
Vaprus
🔄
59'
D. Sotsugov ↔ D. Tarassenkov
Kalju Nomme
🔄
59'
N. Ivanov ↔ M. Orlov
Kalju Nomme
63'
M. Mannilaan
Kalju Nomme
🔄
64'
S. Viidas ↔ S. Kapper
Vaprus
🟨
66'
M. Lepik
Vaprus
🔄
66'
T. Baptista ↔ E. E. Lotar Eyang
Kalju Nomme
🔄
76'
J. Sild ↔ V. Vallik
Vaprus
🔄
76'
T. Pajo ↔ R. Orm
Vaprus
🔄
76'
R. Roosson ↔ J. Allas
Vaprus
🟨
87'
O. Musolitin
Kalju Nomme
90'
V. Vallik · Assist: M. Limberg
Vaprus

Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 64.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
66.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
64.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vaprus Win 29.7%
Draw 3.5%
Kalju Nomme Win 66.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vaprus1.43
Kalju Nomme2.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vaprus Vaprus
WWDLW
35 GF / 40 GA
Kalju Nomme Kalju Nomme
WLDWL
45 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.84
Average Goals Scored
2.05
2.11
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
11
BTTS Yes
9
13
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vaprus Vaprus 19 matches
Kalju Nomme Kalju Nomme 22 matches
Vaprus Statistic Kalju Nomme
7 Wins 13
2 Draws 4
10 Losses 5
35 Goals For 45
40 Goals Against 18
1.84 Avg Goals Scored 2.05
2.11 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
11 BTTS Yes 9
17 Over 1.5 17
13 Over 2.5 10
8 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 10
5 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Kalju Nomme's more proactive style and Vaprus's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Vaprus come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Kalju Nomme carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 28 points while Vaprus sit 6 on 16, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Kalju Nomme. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Kalju Nomme having the stronger overall control.

Vaprus Analysis

Vaprus sit 6 with 16 points after 12 league matches. The record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 15:22 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking threat comes through H. Valja (6 goals), S. Viidas (3 goals), K. Aloe (2 goals), with creative support from M. Limberg (2 assists), M. Lepik (2 assists), K. Aloe (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kalju Nomme Analysis

Kalju Nomme come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 28 points after 13 matches. With 9 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 25:7, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Mannilaan (6 goals), N. Ivanov (5 goals), M. Orlov (3 goals), with creative support from M. Orlov (4 assists), R. Siht (3 assists), B. Vastsuk (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Vaprus won 3 times, Kalju Nomme won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:31 from Vaprus's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.57 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.5%)
Predicted formations: Vaprus 3-4-1-2 / Kalju Nomme -
H2H summary: Vaprus wins 3, draws 3, Kalju Nomme wins 8

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 18 5 1 64:20 44 59
W W W W D
2 25 13 5 7 45:22 23 44
L L W W W
3 24 14 0 10 46:30 16 42
L L W L W
4 24 12 6 6 40:31 9 42
W W D W L
5 23 12 2 9 29:32 -3 38
W W W W L
6 25 10 1 14 36:41 -5 31
W W L L L
7 24 8 4 12 33:46 -13 28
D L L D L
8 25 8 1 16 42:60 -18 25
L L L L L
9 25 7 4 14 27:41 -14 25
D L W W L
10 25 5 2 18 18:57 -39 17
L L D L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga