ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Parnu Rannastaadion
Referee: J. Lorenz
Vaprus
Match Timeline
Kalju Nomme
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
3'
M. Tambedou
Kalju Nomme
4'
H. Valja
Vaprus
🔄
7'
J. Poder ↔ M. Limberg
Vaprus
🔄
46'
M. Tambedou ↔ O. Musolitin
Kalju Nomme
🟨
50'
T. Pajo
Vaprus
52'
H. Valja
Vaprus
🔄
59'
D. Sotsugov ↔ D. Tarassenkov
Kalju Nomme
🔄
59'
N. Ivanov ↔ M. Orlov
Kalju Nomme
63'
M. Mannilaan
Kalju Nomme
🔄
64'
S. Viidas ↔ S. Kapper
Vaprus
🟨
66'
M. Lepik
Vaprus
🔄
66'
T. Baptista ↔ E. E. Lotar Eyang
Kalju Nomme
🔄
76'
J. Sild ↔ V. Vallik
Vaprus
🔄
76'
T. Pajo ↔ R. Orm
Vaprus
🔄
76'
R. Roosson ↔ J. Allas
Vaprus
🟨
87'
O. Musolitin
Kalju Nomme
90'
V. Vallik · Assist: M. Limberg
Vaprus

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.42
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 64.6%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.3%
Odds 1.53
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
66.7%
1.42
BTTS BTTS Yes
64.6%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.3%
1.53
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.07
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.50
Correct Score 0-2
-
8.00
Probability Distribution
Vaprus Win 29.7%
Draw 3.5%
Kalju Nomme Win 66.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vaprus1.43
Kalju Nomme2.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vaprus Vaprus
WWDLW
35 GF / 40 GA
Kalju Nomme Kalju Nomme
WLDWL
45 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.84
Average Goals Scored
2.05
2.11
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
11
BTTS Yes
9
13
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vaprus Vaprus 19 matches
Kalju Nomme Kalju Nomme 22 matches
Vaprus Statistic Kalju Nomme
7 Wins 13
2 Draws 4
10 Losses 5
35 Goals For 45
40 Goals Against 18
1.84 Avg Goals Scored 2.05
2.11 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
11 BTTS Yes 9
17 Over 1.5 17
13 Over 2.5 10
8 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 10
5 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Kalju Nomme's more proactive style and Vaprus's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Vaprus come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Kalju Nomme carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 28 points while Vaprus sit 6 on 16, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Kalju Nomme. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Kalju Nomme having the stronger overall control.

Vaprus Analysis

Vaprus sit 6 with 16 points after 12 league matches. The record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 15:22 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking threat comes through H. Valja (6 goals), S. Viidas (3 goals), K. Aloe (2 goals), with creative support from M. Limberg (2 assists), M. Lepik (2 assists), K. Aloe (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kalju Nomme Analysis

Kalju Nomme come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 28 points after 13 matches. With 9 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 25:7, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Mannilaan (6 goals), N. Ivanov (5 goals), M. Orlov (3 goals), with creative support from M. Orlov (4 assists), R. Siht (3 assists), B. Vastsuk (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Vaprus won 3 times, Kalju Nomme won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:29 from Vaprus's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.36 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.5%)
H2H summary: Vaprus wins 3, draws 3, Kalju Nomme wins 8

Lineups

Vaprus
Formation
Kalju Nomme
O. Nomm
O. Nomm
J. Sild
J. Sild
M. Seppik
M. Seppik
M. Lipp
M. Lipp
M. Villota
M. Villota
J. Poder
J. Poder
H. Valja
⚽ 2
H. Valja
R. Roosson
R. Roosson
T. Pajo
T. Pajo
S. Viidas
S. Viidas
M. Lepik
M. Lepik
H. Perk
H. Perk
D. Mashchenko
D. Mashchenko
U. Korre
U. Korre
M. Tambedou
M. Tambedou
A. Nikolajev
A. Nikolajev
D. Sotsugov
D. Sotsugov
R. Siht
R. Siht
B. Vastsuk
B. Vastsuk
T. Baptista
T. Baptista
M. Mannilaan
M. Mannilaan
N. Ivanov
N. Ivanov
Vaprus 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
16
O. Nomm
90
J. Sild
↓ 76'
43
M. Seppik
28
M. Lipp
24
M. Villota
9
J. Poder
↓ 7'
20
H. Valja
⚽ 4' ⚽ 52'
86
R. Roosson
↓ 76'
8
T. Pajo
↓ 76' 🟨 50'
10
S. Viidas
↓ 64'
22
M. Lepik
🟨 66'
Substitutes
12
M. Ristimets
1
H. Vainu
3
K. Rand
7
V. Vallik
⚽ 90' ↑ 76'
11
K. Kauber
14
R. Orm
↑ 76'
17
S. Kapper
↑ 64'
19
A. Korre
42
M. Limberg
🎯 90' ↑ 7'
64
J. Allas
↑ 76'
88
E. Keskula
Kalju Nomme 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
H. Perk
78
D. Mashchenko
5
U. Korre
20
M. Tambedou
↓ 46' 🟨 3'
22
A. Nikolajev
88
D. Sotsugov
↓ 59'
26
R. Siht
59
B. Vastsuk
21
T. Baptista
↓ 66'
27
M. Mannilaan
⚽ 63'
10
N. Ivanov
↓ 59'
Substitutes
69
M. Pavlov
7
D. Tarassenkov
↑ 59'
8
O. Musolitin
↑ 46' 🟨 87'
11
M. Orlov
↑ 59'
17
E. E. Lotar Eyang
↑ 66'
50
M. Podholjuzin
Last matches: Vaprus
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
16.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
2
1
W
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
21.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Tallinna Kalev
6
0
W
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
24.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
3
L
17.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
Last matches: Kalju Nomme
20.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Laagri
1
0
W
17.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
2
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
01.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Trans Narva
3
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
2
L
22.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Nõmme United
7
1
W
19.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Paide
0
1
L
12.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
08.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Laagri
2
0
W
03.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Trans Narva
2
1
W
21.03.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
4
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Flora Tallinn
1
0
W
08.03.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Tammeka
1
0
W
21.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Super Nova
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Tukums
2
2
D
07.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
30.01.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Rīgas FS
1
1
D
28.01.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
FK Liepaja
5
3
W
23.01.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Maardu
5
0
W
H2H: Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme
30.05.26
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
26.04.26
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
2
W
05.10.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
0
L
10.08.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
2
W
27.06.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
2
D
01.03.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
0
3
L
24.01.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
1
3
L
09.11.24
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
2
1
L
15.09.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
0
4
L
03.07.24
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
4
2
L
30.03.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
07.02.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
0
0
D
07.10.23
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
1
D
19.08.23
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
3
D
06.06.23
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
0
L
Last matches: Vaprus
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
H2H at home: Vaprus
30.05.26
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
27.06.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
2
D
01.03.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
0
3
L
24.01.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
1
3
L
15.09.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
0
4
L
30.03.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
07.02.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
0
0
D
19.08.23
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
3
D
Last matches: Kalju Nomme
17.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
2
0
W
01.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Trans Narva
3
0
W
19.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Paide
0
1
L
08.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Laagri
2
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Flora Tallinn
1
0
W
08.03.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Tammeka
1
0
W
14.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
28.01.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
FK Liepaja
5
3
W
23.01.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Maardu
5
0
W
10.01.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Viimsi
3
0
W
24.07.25
UEF
Kalju Nomme
St Patrick's Athl.
0
1
L
17.07.25
UEF
Kalju Nomme
Partizani
1
0
W
H2H away: Kalju Nomme
30.05.26
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
L
27.06.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
2
D
01.03.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
0
3
W
24.01.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
1
3
W
15.09.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
0
4
W
30.03.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
1
2
W
07.02.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
0
0
D
19.08.23
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
3
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 6.23
Draw 4.65
Away 1.42
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 6.06
Draw 2.62
Away 1.84
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 2.0 1.30
Under 2.0 3.30
Over 2.25 1.38
Under 2.25 2.91
Over 2.5 1.53
Under 2.5 2.41
Over 2.75 1.66
Under 2.75 2.18
Over 3.5 2.32
Under 3.5 1.56
Over 3.0 1.86
Under 3.0 1.94
Over 3.25 2.10
Under 3.25 1.71
Over 3.75 2.71
Under 3.75 1.43
Over 4.0 3.15
Under 4.0 1.33
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 5.50
Draw 4.50
Away 1.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 5.50
Draw 2.60
Away 1.83
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 5.00
Draw 3.00
Away 1.73
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.17
Under 1.5 4.50
Over 2.5 1.53
Under 2.5 2.38
Over 3.5 2.25
Under 3.5 1.57
Over 0.5 1.02
Under 0.5 10.50
Over 8.5 21.00
Under 8.5 1.00
Over 4.5 4.00
Under 4.5 1.22
Over 7.5 17.00
Under 7.5 1.00
Over 5.5 7.00
Under 5.5 1.08
Over 6.5 10.50
Under 6.5 1.02
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 6.64
Draw 4.35
Away 1.39
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 6.19
Draw 2.41
Away 1.89
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 5.71
Draw 2.98
Away 1.68
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.13
Under 1.5 4.55
Over 1.75 1.16
Under 1.75 4.15
Over 2.0 1.19
Under 2.0 3.74
Over 2.25 1.35
Under 2.25 2.74
Over 2.5 1.50
Under 2.5 2.28
Over 2.75 1.64
Under 2.75 2.11
Over 3.5 2.27
Under 3.5 1.56
Over 0.5 1.02
Under 0.5 14.40
Over 1.0 1.02
Under 1.0 10.50
Over 1.25 1.09
Under 1.25 5.40
Over 8.5 21.00
Under 8.5 1.00
Over 3.0 1.79
Under 3.0 1.83
Over 4.5 3.75
Under 4.5 1.19
Over 3.25 2.04
Under 3.25 1.69
Over 3.75 2.56
Under 3.75 1.40
Over 4.0 3.14
Under 4.0 1.27
Over 4.25 3.42
Under 4.25 1.23
Over 4.75 4.59
Under 4.75 1.13
Over 5.0 6.05
Under 5.0 1.06
Over 7.5 15.00
Under 7.5 1.01
Over 5.5 6.65
Under 5.5 1.05
Over 5.25 6.34
Under 5.25 1.06
Over 6.5 10.00
Under 6.5 1.03
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 6.50
Draw 4.40
Away 1.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 5.75
Draw 2.63
Away 1.89
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 5.30
Draw 3.00
Away 1.74
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.13
Under 1.5 4.60
Over 2.0 1.22
Under 2.0 3.80
Over 2.5 1.52
Under 2.5 2.32
Over 3.5 2.33
Under 3.5 1.52
Over 3.0 1.85
Under 3.0 1.83
Over 4.5 4.00
Under 4.5 1.20
Over 4.0 3.40
Under 4.0 1.26
Over 4.25 3.70
Under 4.25 1.22
Over 5.0 6.25
Under 5.0 1.08

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 11 3 0 39:10 29 36
W W W W W
2 14 9 1 4 26:10 16 28
L W W L W
3 13 9 0 4 29:12 17 27
W W W W W
4 14 6 3 5 22:19 3 21
D L L W L
5 14 6 1 7 18:23 -5 19
W L L L L
6 14 6 1 7 19:29 -10 19
W L W W L
7 13 5 1 7 15:19 -4 16
L W W W L
8 14 4 1 9 27:36 -9 13
L L L L W
9 14 4 1 9 14:24 -10 13
D W L L L
10 14 3 0 11 10:37 -27 9
L W L L L