NORWAY ELITESERIEN
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Intility Arena

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.8%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Valerenga Win 59.8%
Draw 4.6%
Aalesund Win 35.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valerenga1.71
Aalesund1.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valerenga Valerenga
WWDLW
37 GF / 35 GA
Aalesund Aalesund
WLDWL
34 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.7
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.75
12
BTTS Yes
14
12
Over 2.5
13
4.75
Shots on Goal
4.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valerenga Valerenga 22 matches
Aalesund Aalesund 20 matches
Valerenga Statistic Aalesund
10 Wins 6
4 Draws 6
8 Losses 8
37 Goals For 34
35 Goals Against 35
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.7
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.75
12 BTTS Yes 14
17 Over 1.5 18
12 Over 2.5 13
10 Over 3.5 10
5 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 3
4.75 Shots On Goal 4.58
15.33 Total Shots 14
7.17 Corners 4.33
51.2% Ball Possession 42.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Valerenga expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Aalesund in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Aalesund having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Aalesund. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Valerenga Analysis

Valerenga sit 9 with 14 points after 11 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, while the 13:17 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on C. Lange (3 goals), Lucas Haren (3 goals), M. Grundetjern (2 goals), with creative support from M. Grundetjern (2 assists), H. Bjordal (2 assists), K. Finnsson (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Aalesund Analysis

Aalesund are currently 13 in the standings with 11 points from 11 matches. The record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 15:20 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Lonebu (5 goals), H. Melland (3 goals), M. Christensen (2 goals), with creative support from Endre Hjertager Osenbroch (2 assists), J. Orsahl (2 assists), H. Melland (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Valerenga won 7 times, Aalesund won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:11 from Valerenga's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Valerenga 4-4-2 / Aalesund 5-3-2
H2H summary: Valerenga wins 7, draws 4, Aalesund wins 1
Last matches: Valerenga
11.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Tromso
0
4
L
04.07.26
Fri
Valerenga
Fredrikstad
3
1
W
27.06.26
Fri
Valerenga
Gais
1
2
L
18.06.26
Fri
Valerenga
IFK Goteborg
1
1
D
29.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Kristiansund BK
3
1
W
25.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Start
0
2
L
16.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
2
W
08.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
0
1
L
03.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
2
2
D
26.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Molde
1
5
L
19.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Lillestrom
0
2
L
12.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Fredrikstad
1
1
D
06.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Viking
0
1
L
27.03.26
Fri
Valerenga
IFK Goteborg
3
3
D
22.03.26
Eli
Valerenga
Rosenborg
2
0
W
15.03.26
Eli
Valerenga
Sandefjord
1
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Valerenga
Stromsgodset
4
3
W
27.02.26
Fri
Valerenga
Rosenborg
1
0
W
21.02.26
Fri
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
1
0
W
14.02.26
Fri
Valerenga
Djurgardens IF
1
2
L
Last matches: Aalesund
11.07.26
Eli
Aalesund
Molde
2
2
D
27.06.26
Fri
Aalesund
Kristiansund BK
3
0
W
29.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Ham-Kam
2
2
D
25.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Tromso
1
1
D
20.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Brann
2
1
W
16.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Rosenborg
3
2
W
03.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Sandefjord
0
1
L
26.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
Kristiansund BK
1
1
D
18.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
Bodo/Glimt
0
3
L
12.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
KFUM Oslo
2
2
D
07.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
Fredrikstad
2
3
L
21.03.26
Eli
Aalesund
Start
1
1
D
15.03.26
Eli
Aalesund
Lillestrom
1
3
L
28.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Brattvåg
6
1
W
27.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Molde
1
4
L
22.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Fredrikstad
2
3
L
15.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Sirius
2
3
L
06.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
hodd
2
0
W
30.01.26
Fri
Aalesund
Kristiansund BK
1
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
Aalesund
Brattvåg
0
2
L
H2H: Valerenga vs Aalesund
24.09.24
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
4
1
W
11.05.24
H2H
Aalesund
Valerenga
0
2
W
17.09.23
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
3
1
W
10.04.23
H2H
Aalesund
Valerenga
0
1
W
07.08.22
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
4
0
W
19.06.22
H2H
Aalesund
Valerenga
2
2
D
21.11.20
H2H
Aalesund
Valerenga
1
1
D
04.07.20
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
2
2
D
15.10.17
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
5
1
W
12.05.17
H2H
Aalesund
Valerenga
0
1
W
25.09.16
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
0
1
L
29.05.16
H2H
Aalesund
Valerenga
2
2
D
Last matches: Valerenga
04.07.26
Fri
Valerenga
Fredrikstad
3
1
W
27.06.26
Fri
Valerenga
Gais
1
2
L
29.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Kristiansund BK
3
1
W
16.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
2
W
03.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
2
2
D
19.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Lillestrom
0
2
L
06.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Viking
0
1
L
27.03.26
Fri
Valerenga
IFK Goteborg
3
3
D
15.03.26
Eli
Valerenga
Sandefjord
1
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Valerenga
Stromsgodset
4
3
W
21.02.26
Fri
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
1
0
W
06.02.26
Fri
Valerenga
Sandefjord
5
2
W
30.01.26
Fri
Valerenga
Orgryte IS
4
0
W
H2H at home: Valerenga
24.09.24
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
4
1
W
17.09.23
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
3
1
W
07.08.22
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
4
0
W
04.07.20
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
2
2
D
15.10.17
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
5
1
W
25.09.16
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
0
1
L
Last matches: Aalesund
27.06.26
Fri
Aalesund
Kristiansund BK
3
0
W
25.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Tromso
1
1
D
16.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Rosenborg
3
2
W
03.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Sandefjord
0
1
L
18.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
Bodo/Glimt
0
3
L
21.03.26
Eli
Aalesund
Start
1
1
D
27.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Molde
1
4
L
15.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Sirius
2
3
L
H2H away: Aalesund
24.09.24
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
4
1
L
17.09.23
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
3
1
L
07.08.22
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
4
0
L
04.07.20
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
2
2
D
15.10.17
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
5
1
L
25.09.16
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
0
1
W

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 8 4 2 22:14 8 28
W D D L W
2 10 9 0 1 29:10 19 27
W W W W W
3 11 7 2 2 28:11 17 23
D W W W L
4 12 7 1 4 19:11 8 22
W L L W L
5 12 6 2 4 20:15 5 20
D W L W L
6 10 5 2 3 17:16 1 17
D W L W D
7 11 4 2 5 13:16 -3 14
W W L W L
8 11 4 2 5 10:13 -3 14
L D L W W
9 12 4 2 6 15:22 -7 14
L W D W L
10 12 4 2 6 13:21 -8 14
L W L W L
11 12 4 1 7 24:20 4 13
L L L W W
12 12 2 6 4 17:22 -5 12
D D D W W
13 11 3 3 5 12:17 -5 12
D W L L D
14 11 3 2 6 11:18 -7 11
L L W L L
15 11 2 3 6 9:18 -9 9
D L L W L
16 12 1 4 7 13:28 -15 7
L W L L D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen