NORWAY ELITESERIEN
16.07.2026 17:00
Intility Arena
Referee: D. Higraff
Valerenga
Match Timeline
Aalesund
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
28'
A. Kjelsen ↔ U. Syversen
Aalesund
39'
L. Haren · Assist: H. Bjordal
Valerenga
42'
L. Haren · Assist: F. Thorvaldsen
Valerenga
45'
F. Thorvaldsen · Assist: M. Grundetjern
Valerenga
🔄
46'
S. Haram ↔ E. Engqvist
Aalesund
🔄
46'
E. Hagen ↔ H. Hammer
Aalesund
🔄
46'
K. Lonebu ↔ E. Myrlid
Aalesund
53'
F. Thorvaldsen · Assist: H. Bjordal
Valerenga
🔄
58'
L. Haren ↔ P. Strand
Valerenga
🔄
72'
M. Grundetjern ↔ M. Ofkir
Valerenga
🔄
72'
F. Thorvaldsen ↔ G. Rajkovic
Valerenga
🔄
72'
A. Olsen ↔ K. Tshiembe
Valerenga
74'
E. Osenbroch
Aalesund
83'
M. Ofkir · Assist: H. Bjordal
Valerenga
🔄
84'
C. Lange ↔ M. Westergaard
Valerenga
🔄
84'
M. Christensen ↔ I. Djantou
Aalesund
89'
M. Ofkir · Assist: K. Finnsson
Valerenga

Valerenga vs Aalesund Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 83.2%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.7%
-
BTTS Yes
83.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Valerenga Win 62.7%
Draw 8.2%
Aalesund Win 29.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valerenga1.71
Aalesund1.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valerenga Valerenga
WWDLW
37 GF / 35 GA
Aalesund Aalesund
WLDWL
34 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.7
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.75
12
BTTS Yes
14
12
Over 2.5
13
4.75
Shots on Goal
4.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valerenga Valerenga 22 matches
Aalesund Aalesund 20 matches
Valerenga Statistic Aalesund
10 Wins 6
4 Draws 6
8 Losses 8
37 Goals For 34
35 Goals Against 35
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.7
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.75
12 BTTS Yes 14
17 Over 1.5 18
12 Over 2.5 13
10 Over 3.5 10
5 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 3
4.75 Shots On Goal 4.67
15.33 Total Shots 14.17
7.17 Corners 4.33
51.2% Ball Possession 43%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Aalesund seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Aalesund. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Valerenga expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Aalesund in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Aalesund having the stronger overall control. Valerenga have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Valerenga Analysis

Valerenga approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 14 points from 12 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 13:21, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Lucas Haren (3 goals), Mathias Grundetjern (2 goals), Carl Lange (1 goals), with creative support from Mathias Grundetjern (2 assists), Henrik Bjørdal (2 assists), Carl Lange (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with M. Sjoeng, O. T. Holm, F. Thorvaldsen unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Aalesund Analysis

Aalesund are currently 12 in the standings with 12 points from 12 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 17:22 reflects mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking weight is carried by Mathias Christensen (3 goals), Henrik Melland (3 goals), Kristian Lonebu (3 goals), with creative support from Endre Hjertager Osenbroch (2 assists), Mathias Christensen (1 assists), Henrik Melland (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with D. Johannsson, M. Kristensen, P. Ngongo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Valerenga won 8 times, Aalesund won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 38:17 from Valerenga's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.8%)
Predicted formations: Valerenga 4-4-2 / Aalesund 5-3-2
Missing players: Valerenga 4, Aalesund 5
H2H summary: Valerenga wins 8, draws 5, Aalesund wins 1

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 16 2 2 52:17 35 50
W W W W W
2 20 15 2 3 51:20 31 47
W D W L W
3 20 11 3 6 43:30 13 36
W W W W L
4 20 10 5 5 37:27 10 35
L L D L W
5 20 10 2 8 28:26 2 32
W W L D L
6 20 9 3 8 36:29 7 30
W W L W W
7 20 8 3 9 24:31 -7 27
D L W W W
8 20 8 2 10 37:31 6 26
L L D W W
9 20 6 7 7 23:26 -3 25
D D D L L
10 20 6 5 9 27:41 -14 23
L L D L D
11 20 6 4 10 33:42 -9 22
L D L D L
12 20 6 4 10 22:34 -12 22
W L L D W
13 20 5 5 10 18:27 -9 20
L D D W L
14 20 5 4 11 20:37 -17 19
L W D L W
15 20 3 9 8 31:45 -14 18
L W L D D
16 20 4 4 12 22:41 -19 16
W L W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen