NORWAY ELITESERIEN
--.--.---- --:--
Intility Arena
Referee: D. Higraff
Valerenga
Match Timeline
Aalesund
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
28'
A. Kjelsen ↔ U. Syversen
Aalesund
39'
L. Haren · Assist: H. Bjordal
Valerenga
42'
L. Haren · Assist: F. Thorvaldsen
Valerenga
45+1'
F. Thorvaldsen · Assist: M. Grundetjern
Valerenga
🔄
46'
E. Hagen ↔ H. Hammer
Aalesund
🔄
46'
K. Lonebu ↔ E. Myrlid
Aalesund
🔄
46'
S. Haram ↔ E. Engqvist
Aalesund
53'
F. Thorvaldsen · Assist: H. Bjordal
Valerenga
🔄
58'
L. Haren ↔ P. Strand
Valerenga
🔄
72'
A. Olsen ↔ K. Tshiembe
Valerenga
🔄
72'
M. Grundetjern ↔ M. Ofkir
Valerenga
🔄
72'
F. Thorvaldsen ↔ G. Rajkovic
Valerenga
74'
E. Osenbroch · Assist: U. Charles
Aalesund
83'
M. Ofkir · Assist: H. Bjordal
Valerenga
🔄
84'
C. Lange ↔ M. Westergaard
Valerenga
🔄
84'
M. Christensen ↔ I. Djantou
Aalesund
89'
M. Ofkir · Assist: K. Finnsson
Valerenga

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 83.2%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.7%
-
BTTS Yes
83.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Valerenga Win 62.7%
Draw 8.2%
Aalesund Win 29.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valerenga1.71
Aalesund1.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valerenga Valerenga
WWDLW
37 GF / 35 GA
Aalesund Aalesund
WLDWL
34 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.7
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.75
12
BTTS Yes
14
12
Over 2.5
13
4.75
Shots on Goal
4.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valerenga Valerenga 22 matches
Aalesund Aalesund 20 matches
Valerenga Statistic Aalesund
10 Wins 6
4 Draws 6
8 Losses 8
37 Goals For 34
35 Goals Against 35
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.7
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.75
12 BTTS Yes 14
17 Over 1.5 18
12 Over 2.5 13
10 Over 3.5 10
5 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 3
4.75 Shots On Goal 4.58
15.33 Total Shots 14
7.17 Corners 4.33
51.2% Ball Possession 42.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Aalesund seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Aalesund. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Valerenga expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Aalesund in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Aalesund having the stronger overall control. Valerenga have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Valerenga Analysis

Valerenga approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 14 points from 12 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 13:21, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Lucas Haren (3 goals), Mathias Grundetjern (2 goals), Carl Lange (1 goals), with creative support from Mathias Grundetjern (2 assists), Henrik Bjørdal (2 assists), Carl Lange (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with M. Sjoeng, O. T. Holm, F. Thorvaldsen unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Aalesund Analysis

Aalesund are currently 12 in the standings with 12 points from 12 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 17:22 reflects mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking weight is carried by Mathias Christensen (3 goals), Henrik Melland (3 goals), Kristian Lonebu (3 goals), with creative support from Endre Hjertager Osenbroch (2 assists), Mathias Christensen (1 assists), Henrik Melland (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with D. Johannsson, M. Kristensen, P. Ngongo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Valerenga won 8 times, Aalesund won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:12 from Valerenga's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.46 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.8%)
Predicted formations: Valerenga 4-4-2 / Aalesund 5-3-2
Missing players: Valerenga 4, Aalesund 5
H2H summary: Valerenga wins 8, draws 4, Aalesund wins 1
Stats
Valerenga Valerenga
Aalesund Aalesund
Shots on Goal
10
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
8
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
4
8 Corner Kicks 7
7 Fouls 5
1 Offsides 0
46% Ball Possession 54%
22 Total Shots 18
10 Shots on Goal 6
9 Shots off Goal 8
3 Blocked Shots 4
10 Shots insidebox 11
12 Shots outsidebox 7
5 Goalkeeper Saves 4
405 Total passes 466
329 Passes accurate 373
2.18 expected_goals 1.51
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Valerenga
Formation
Aalesund
Oscar Hedvall
Oscar Hedvall
Sebastian Jarl
Sebastian Jarl
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Ivan Näsberg
Ivan Näsberg
Kolbeinn Finnsson
🎯
Kolbeinn Finnsson
Henrik Bjørdal
🎯
Henrik Bjørdal
Ambina Fidèle Brice
Ambina Fidèle Brice
Lucas Haren
⚽ 2
Lucas Haren
Carl Lange
Carl Lange
Filip Thorvaldsen
⚽ 2 🎯
Filip Thorvaldsen
Mathias Grundetjern
🎯
Mathias Grundetjern
Tor Erik Larsen
Tor Erik Larsen
Uba Charles
🎯
Uba Charles
Simen Haram
Simen Haram
Aleksander Kjelsen
Aleksander Kjelsen
Ólafur Guðmundsson
Ólafur Guðmundsson
Kristoffer Nessø
Kristoffer Nessø
Mathias Christensen
Mathias Christensen
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen
Henrik Melland
Henrik Melland
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
Kristian Lonebu
Kristian Lonebu
Valerenga 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
Oscar Hedvall
G
55
Sebastian Jarl
D
4
Aaron Kiil Olsen
↓ 72'
D
37
Ivan Näsberg
D
2
Kolbeinn Finnsson
🎯 89'
D
8
Henrik Bjørdal
🎯 39' 🎯 53' 🎯 83'
M
29
Ambina Fidèle Brice
M
77
Lucas Haren
⚽ 39' ⚽ 42' ↓ 58'
M
10
Carl Lange
↓ 84'
M
26
Filip Thorvaldsen
⚽ 45+1' ⚽ 53' 🎯 42' ↓ 72'
F
17
Mathias Grundetjern
🎯 45+1' ↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
24
Petter Strand
↑ 58'
M
5
Kevin Tshiembe
↑ 72'
D
7
Mohamed Ofkir
⚽ 83' ⚽ 89' ↑ 72'
M
9
Gabriel Rajkovic
↑ 72'
F
28
Magnus Westergaard
↑ 84'
M
30
Alexander Svensen Ordal
G
3
Hakon Sjatil
D
6
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad
D
19
Promise Meliga
F
Aalesund 5-3-2
Starting XI
26
Tor Erik Larsen
G
14
Uba Charles
🎯 74'
D
4
Simen Haram
↓ 46'
D
5
Aleksander Kjelsen
D
3
Ólafur Guðmundsson
D
7
Kristoffer Nessø
D
21
Mathias Christensen
M
18
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen
↓ 46'
M
8
Henrik Melland
M
15
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
⚽ 74'
F
39
Kristian Lonebu
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
25
Ulrik Syversen
D
22
Emil Engqvist
↑ 46'
D
6
Hakon Butli Hammer
M
17
Elias Heggland Myrlid
↑ 46'
F
20
Ivan Djantou
↑ 84'
F
1
Luca Podlech
G
16
Jakob Nyland Örsahl
D
2
Marius Andresen
D
45
Philip Sandvik Aukland
D
Last matches: Valerenga
31.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
0
3
L
26.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Brann
3
2
W
11.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Tromso
0
4
L
04.07.26
Fri
Valerenga
Fredrikstad
3
1
W
27.06.26
Fri
Valerenga
Gais
1
2
L
18.06.26
Fri
Valerenga
IFK Goteborg
1
1
D
29.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Kristiansund BK
3
1
W
25.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Start
0
2
L
16.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
2
W
08.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
0
1
L
03.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
2
2
D
26.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Molde
1
5
L
19.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Lillestrom
0
2
L
12.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Fredrikstad
1
1
D
06.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Viking
0
1
L
27.03.26
Fri
Valerenga
IFK Goteborg
3
3
D
22.03.26
Eli
Valerenga
Rosenborg
2
0
W
15.03.26
Eli
Valerenga
Sandefjord
1
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Valerenga
Stromsgodset
4
3
W
27.02.26
Fri
Valerenga
Rosenborg
1
0
W
Last matches: Aalesund
26.07.26
Eli
Aalesund
Viking
1
1
D
11.07.26
Eli
Aalesund
Molde
2
2
D
27.06.26
Fri
Aalesund
Kristiansund BK
3
0
W
29.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Ham-Kam
2
2
D
25.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Tromso
1
1
D
20.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Brann
2
1
W
16.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Rosenborg
3
2
W
03.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Sandefjord
0
1
L
26.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
Kristiansund BK
1
1
D
18.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
Bodo/Glimt
0
3
L
12.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
KFUM Oslo
2
2
D
07.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
Fredrikstad
2
3
L
21.03.26
Eli
Aalesund
Start
1
1
D
15.03.26
Eli
Aalesund
Lillestrom
1
3
L
28.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Brattvåg
6
1
W
27.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Molde
1
4
L
22.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Fredrikstad
2
3
L
15.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Sirius
2
3
L
06.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
hodd
2
0
W
30.01.26
Fri
Aalesund
Kristiansund BK
1
0
W
H2H: Valerenga vs Aalesund
16.07.26
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
6
1
W
24.09.24
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
4
1
W
11.05.24
H2H
Aalesund
Valerenga
0
2
W
17.09.23
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
3
1
W
10.04.23
H2H
Aalesund
Valerenga
0
1
W
07.08.22
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
4
0
W
19.06.22
H2H
Aalesund
Valerenga
2
2
D
21.11.20
H2H
Aalesund
Valerenga
1
1
D
04.07.20
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
2
2
D
15.10.17
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
5
1
W
12.05.17
H2H
Aalesund
Valerenga
0
1
W
25.09.16
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
0
1
L
29.05.16
H2H
Aalesund
Valerenga
2
2
D
Last matches: Valerenga
31.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
0
3
L
04.07.26
Fri
Valerenga
Fredrikstad
3
1
W
27.06.26
Fri
Valerenga
Gais
1
2
L
29.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Kristiansund BK
3
1
W
16.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
2
W
03.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
2
2
D
19.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Lillestrom
0
2
L
06.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Viking
0
1
L
27.03.26
Fri
Valerenga
IFK Goteborg
3
3
D
15.03.26
Eli
Valerenga
Sandefjord
1
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Valerenga
Stromsgodset
4
3
W
21.02.26
Fri
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
1
0
W
06.02.26
Fri
Valerenga
Sandefjord
5
2
W
30.01.26
Fri
Valerenga
Orgryte IS
4
0
W
H2H at home: Valerenga
16.07.26
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
6
1
W
24.09.24
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
4
1
W
17.09.23
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
3
1
W
07.08.22
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
4
0
W
04.07.20
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
2
2
D
15.10.17
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
5
1
W
25.09.16
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
0
1
L
Last matches: Aalesund
27.06.26
Fri
Aalesund
Kristiansund BK
3
0
W
25.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Tromso
1
1
D
16.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Rosenborg
3
2
W
03.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Sandefjord
0
1
L
18.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
Bodo/Glimt
0
3
L
21.03.26
Eli
Aalesund
Start
1
1
D
27.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Molde
1
4
L
15.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Sirius
2
3
L
H2H away: Aalesund
16.07.26
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
6
1
L
24.09.24
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
4
1
L
17.09.23
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
3
1
L
07.08.22
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
4
0
L
04.07.20
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
2
2
D
15.10.17
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
5
1
L
25.09.16
H2H
Valerenga
Aalesund
0
1
W

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 12 2 2 41:11 30 38
W W W W W
2 14 11 1 2 34:14 20 34
D W W L W
3 15 9 4 2 26:15 11 31
W W D D L
4 15 8 1 6 22:18 4 25
L L W W L
5 14 7 2 5 25:19 6 23
W L D W L
6 14 6 3 5 15:16 -1 21
W D W W W
7 15 6 3 6 23:26 -3 21
W L L L D
8 15 6 2 7 22:27 -5 20
L W W L W
9 15 6 1 8 30:25 5 19
L W W L L
10 14 5 3 6 19:18 1 18
W W W D L
11 14 4 3 7 13:20 -7 15
L L D L D
12 14 4 2 8 15:27 -12 14
L L L W D
13 14 2 7 5 19:29 -10 13
D L D D D
14 14 3 3 8 15:25 -10 12
L L L D W
15 14 3 3 8 12:23 -11 12
L D L L L
16 15 2 4 9 16:34 -18 10
W L L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen

Missing Players

Valerenga 4 missing
-
M. Sjoeng
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
O. T. Holm
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
O. Saeter
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
F. Thorvaldsen
Questionable Injury
OUT
Aalesund 5 missing
-
D. Johannsson
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
M. Kristensen
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
P. Ngongo
Missing Fixture Surgery
OUT
-
M. Reed
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
J. Seehusen
Questionable Injury
OUT