NETHERLANDS EREDIVISIE
--.--.---- --:--
Stadion Galgenwaard
Referee: J. van der Laan
Utrecht
Match Timeline
Heerenveen
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
45'
A. Engwanda ↔ S. Horemans
Utrecht
46'
A. Stepanov
Utrecht
🟨
49'
Marcus Linday
Heerenveen
54'
D. Vente · Assist: J. van Overeem
Heerenveen
56'
M. van der Hoorn · Assist: S. El Karouani
Utrecht
58'
S. El Karouani · Assist: N. Vesterlund
Utrecht
🔄
65'
A. Stepanov ↔ S. Haller
Utrecht
🔄
69'
L. Oyen ↔ L. Nordas
Heerenveen
77'
J. Trenskow · Assist: D. Vente
Heerenveen
🔄
78'
M. Linday ↔ L. Brouwers
Heerenveen
🔄
80'
M. Eerdhuijzen ↔ N. Viergever
Utrecht
🔄
80'
J. Karlsson ↔ A. Blake
Utrecht

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 38.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 40.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
38.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
40.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Utrecht Win 65.1%
Draw 12.8%
Heerenveen Win 22.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Utrecht1.55
Heerenveen1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Utrecht Utrecht
WWDLW
74 GF / 61 GA
Heerenveen Heerenveen
WLDWL
57 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
28
BTTS Yes
22
24
Over 2.5
24
4.58
Shots on Goal
5.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Utrecht Utrecht 48 matches
Heerenveen Heerenveen 34 matches
Utrecht Statistic Heerenveen
20 Wins 14
10 Draws 9
18 Losses 11
74 Goals For 57
61 Goals Against 53
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
28 BTTS Yes 22
39 Over 1.5 32
24 Over 2.5 24
15 Over 3.5 13
11 Clean Sheets 5
11 Failed To Score 8
4.58 Shots On Goal 5.35
12.75 Total Shots 14.94
4.42 Corners 5.56
42.6% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Utrecht appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Heerenveen. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Heerenveen controlled more possession in the first leg (60% against 40%). Utrecht were also more accurate in attack, recording 4 shots on target to 3. Heerenveen circulated the ball more often, making 603 passes to 397 and completing 530. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Heerenveen. Utrecht come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Utrecht Analysis

Utrecht enter this tie with a season profile built on 53 points from 34 matches, placing them 6 in their league. The return of 15 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 55:42 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking influence is driven by G. Zechiel (8 goals), D. de Wit (7 goals), V. Jensen (5 goals), with creative support from Souffian El Karouani (11 assists), G. Zechiel (7 assists), Y. Cathline (4 assists), and at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the return of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. Although they are without V. Jensen, M. Rodriguez, O. Agougil, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

Heerenveen Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Heerenveen arrive from a league campaign that has them 8 with 51 points after 34 matches. With 14 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses plus a goal ratio of 57:53, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on J. Trenskow (12 goals), D. Vente (7 goals), L. Nordas (6 goals), with creative support from Joris van Overeem (9 assists), J. Trenskow (5 assists), L. Brouwers (4 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with L. Smans, A. van Axel Dongen, M. Rivera unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Utrecht won 9 times, Heerenveen won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:15 from Utrecht's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.2%)
Predicted formations: Utrecht 4-2-3-1 / Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Utrecht 9, Heerenveen 3
H2H summary: Utrecht wins 9, draws 5, Heerenveen wins 1
Stats
Utrecht Utrecht
Heerenveen Heerenveen
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
2
9 Corner Kicks 6
11 Fouls 6
1 Offsides 0
41% Ball Possession 59%
23 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Goal 5
8 Shots off Goal 6
7 Blocked Shots 2
16 Shots insidebox 9
7 Shots outsidebox 4
3 Goalkeeper Saves 5
367 Total passes 543
306 Passes accurate 464
2.08 expected_goals 1.26
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Utrecht
Formation
Heerenveen
V. Barkas
V. Barkas
N. Vesterlund
🎯
N. Vesterlund
M. van der Hoorn
M. van der Hoorn
M. Eerdhuijzen
M. Eerdhuijzen
S. El Karouani
🎯
S. El Karouani
A. Engwanda
A. Engwanda
G. Zechiel
G. Zechiel
Y. Cathline
Y. Cathline
D. de Wit
D. de Wit
J. Karlsson
J. Karlsson
A. Stepanov
A. Stepanov
B. Klaverboer
B. Klaverboer
O. Braude
O. Braude
S. Kersten
S. Kersten
M. Willemsen
M. Willemsen
V. Zagaritis
V. Zagaritis
M. Linday
M. Linday
J. van Overeem
🎯
J. van Overeem
J. Trenskow
J. Trenskow
R. Meerveld
R. Meerveld
L. Oyen
L. Oyen
D. Vente
🎯
D. Vente
Utrecht 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
V. Barkas
G
23
N. Vesterlund
🎯 58'
D
3
M. van der Hoorn
⚽ 56'
D
44
M. Eerdhuijzen
↓ 80'
D
16
S. El Karouani
⚽ 58' 🎯 56'
D
27
A. Engwanda
↓ 45'
M
21
G. Zechiel
M
10
Y. Cathline
M
20
D. de Wit
M
11
J. Karlsson
↓ 80'
M
18
A. Stepanov
⚽ 46' ↓ 65'
F
Substitutes
25
M. Brouwer
G
33
K. Gadellaa
G
24
N. Viergever
↑ 80'
D
15
A. Blake
↑ 80'
F
77
A. Alarcon
F
5
E. Adiele
D
91
S. Haller
↑ 65'
F
2
S. Horemans
↑ 45'
D
8
C. Bozdogan
M
43
R. El Arguioui
M
53
N. Viereck
D
57
P. Kloosterboer
D
Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
B. Klaverboer
G
45
O. Braude
D
4
S. Kersten
D
3
M. Willemsen
D
19
V. Zagaritis
D
16
M. Linday
↓ 78' 🟨 49'
M
6
J. van Overeem
🎯 54'
M
20
J. Trenskow
⚽ 77'
M
10
R. Meerveld
M
11
L. Oyen
↓ 69'
M
9
D. Vente
⚽ 54' 🎯 77'
F
Substitutes
44
A. Noppert
G
31
N. Bakker
G
8
L. Brouwers
↑ 78'
M
28
H. Petrov
D
7
M. Rivera
M
17
N. Hopland
D
15
M. Egbring
D
36
N. Courtens
M
35
I. Ahmed
M
50
E. Gurbuz
F
18
L. Nordas
↑ 69'
F
40
C. Bonevacia
F
Last matches: Utrecht
24.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Ajax
0
0
D
17.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Fortuna Sittard
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Ajax
2
1
W
02.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
NAC Breda
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ere
Utrecht
Excelsior
0
5
L
11.04.26
Ere
Utrecht
Telstar
4
1
W
04.04.26
Ere
Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven
3
4
L
22.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
GO Ahead Eagles
2
0
W
15.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
Twente
2
0
W
06.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
Heracles
0
0
D
01.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
2
0
W
22.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
PEC Zwolle
1
1
D
14.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Groningen
2
1
W
11.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
NEC Nijmegen
3
1
W
08.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Feyenoord
0
1
L
01.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Heerenveen
1
1
D
29.01.26
UEF
Utrecht
Celtic
2
4
L
25.01.26
Ere
Utrecht
Sparta Rotterdam
0
1
L
22.01.26
UEF
Utrecht
Genk
0
2
L
18.01.26
Ere
Utrecht
FC Volendam
1
2
L
Last matches: Heerenveen
17.05.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Ajax
0
0
D
11.05.26
Ere
Heerenveen
NAC Breda
0
2
L
03.05.26
Ere
Heerenveen
FC Volendam
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Fortuna Sittard
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ere
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar
0
3
L
05.04.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Heracles
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ere
Heerenveen
NEC Nijmegen
2
2
D
14.03.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Telstar
3
0
W
07.03.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Excelsior
2
1
W
28.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
2
1
W
21.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven
1
3
L
15.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
4
2
W
11.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
GO Ahead Eagles
3
1
W
07.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Twente
0
5
L
01.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Utrecht
1
1
D
18.01.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Groningen
0
2
L
11.01.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Feyenoord
2
2
D
20.12.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Heracles
3
0
W
14.12.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
3
0
W
06.12.25
Ere
Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven
0
2
L
H2H: Utrecht vs Heerenveen
21.05.26
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
3
2
W
01.02.26
H2H
Heerenveen
Utrecht
1
1
D
28.09.25
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
2
2
D
30.03.25
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
2
0
W
17.08.24
H2H
Heerenveen
Utrecht
1
1
D
07.04.24
H2H
Heerenveen
Utrecht
2
3
W
20.08.23
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
0
2
L
04.02.23
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
1
0
W
29.10.22
H2H
Heerenveen
Utrecht
1
2
W
08.07.22
H2H
Heerenveen
Utrecht
0
1
W
27.02.22
H2H
Heerenveen
Utrecht
1
2
W
23.10.21
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
2
1
W
08.05.21
H2H
Heerenveen
Utrecht
0
0
D
02.10.20
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
1
1
D
20.08.20
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
4
1
W
Last matches: Utrecht
17.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Fortuna Sittard
2
0
W
02.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
NAC Breda
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ere
Utrecht
Telstar
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
GO Ahead Eagles
2
0
W
01.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
2
0
W
22.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
PEC Zwolle
1
1
D
08.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Feyenoord
0
1
L
25.01.26
Ere
Utrecht
Sparta Rotterdam
0
1
L
22.01.26
UEF
Utrecht
Genk
0
2
L
21.12.25
Ere
Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven
1
2
L
11.12.25
UEF
Utrecht
Nottingham Forest
1
2
L
07.12.25
Ere
Utrecht
Twente
1
1
D
09.11.25
Ere
Utrecht
Ajax
2
1
W
06.11.25
UEF
Utrecht
FC Porto
1
1
D
02.11.25
Ere
Utrecht
NEC Nijmegen
1
0
W
18.10.25
Ere
Utrecht
FC Volendam
3
1
W
28.09.25
Ere
Utrecht
Heerenveen
2
2
D
25.09.25
UEF
Utrecht
Lyon
0
1
L
14.09.25
Ere
Utrecht
Groningen
0
1
L
28.08.25
UEF
Utrecht
Zrinjski
0
0
D
H2H at home: Utrecht
21.05.26
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
3
2
W
28.09.25
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
2
2
D
30.03.25
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
2
0
W
20.08.23
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
0
2
L
04.02.23
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
1
0
W
23.10.21
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
2
1
W
02.10.20
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
1
1
D
20.08.20
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
4
1
W
Last matches: Heerenveen
11.05.26
Ere
Heerenveen
NAC Breda
0
2
L
03.05.26
Ere
Heerenveen
FC Volendam
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ere
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar
0
3
L
22.03.26
Ere
Heerenveen
NEC Nijmegen
2
2
D
07.03.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Excelsior
2
1
W
21.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven
1
3
L
11.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
GO Ahead Eagles
3
1
W
07.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Twente
0
5
L
20.12.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Heracles
3
0
W
14.12.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
3
0
W
28.11.25
Ere
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
1
2
L
08.11.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Fortuna Sittard
0
2
L
01.11.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Ajax
1
1
D
19.10.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Telstar
3
2
W
28.09.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Utrecht
2
2
D
13.09.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Feyenoord
0
1
L
16.08.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Groningen
1
2
L
H2H away: Heerenveen
21.05.26
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
3
2
L
28.09.25
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
2
2
D
30.03.25
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
2
0
L
20.08.23
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
0
2
W
04.02.23
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
1
0
L
23.10.21
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
2
1
L
02.10.20
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
1
1
D
20.08.20
H2H
Utrecht
Heerenveen
4
1
L

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 27 3 4 101:45 56 84
W W D W W
2 34 19 8 7 70:44 26 65
W D W W D
3 34 16 11 7 77:53 24 59
W L D D D
4 34 15 13 6 59:40 19 58
L W D D W
5 34 14 14 6 62:41 21 56
D L D W W
6 34 15 8 11 55:42 13 53
W W W L W
7 34 14 10 10 58:51 7 52
D D D D W
8 34 14 9 11 57:53 4 51
D L W W L
9 34 14 6 14 49:45 4 48
W W L L D
10 34 12 7 15 40:62 -22 43
L L D L L
11 34 11 6 17 49:63 -14 39
L W L L D
12 34 8 14 12 54:53 1 38
L L D D D
13 34 10 8 16 43:56 -13 38
W D W W D
14 34 9 10 15 49:55 -6 37
W W D W L
15 34 9 10 15 44:71 -27 37
L L W L D
16 34 8 8 18 35:55 -20 32
L D L W L
17 34 6 11 17 35:58 -23 29
D W L L D
18 34 5 4 25 35:85 -50 19
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Eerste Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie

Missing Players

Utrecht 9 missing
-
V. Jensen
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Rodriguez
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
O. Agougil
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
J. van Ommeren
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
M. Brouwer
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
E. Demircan
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
A. Alarcon
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
M. Didden
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
D. Min
Questionable Inactive
OUT
Heerenveen 3 missing
-
L. Smans
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. van Axel Dongen
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
M. Rivera
Questionable Injury
OUT