CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Ester Roa
Referee: D. Flores

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 82.4%
Odds 1.75
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.88
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
82.4%
1.75
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.88
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.17
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Universidad de Concepcion Win 13.4%
Draw 4.2%
Universidad de Chile Win 82.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Universidad de Concepcion0.9
Universidad de Chile1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Universidad de Concepcion Universidad de Concepcion
WWDLW
22 GF / 45 GA
Universidad de Chile Universidad de Chile
WLDWL
40 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.8
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
12
BTTS Yes
12
13
Over 2.5
13
3.95
Shots on Goal
5.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Universidad de Concepcion Universidad de Concepcion 25 matches
Universidad de Chile Universidad de Chile 27 matches
Universidad de Concepcion Statistic Universidad de Chile
6 Wins 14
5 Draws 7
14 Losses 6
22 Goals For 40
45 Goals Against 25
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.8 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
12 BTTS Yes 12
17 Over 1.5 17
13 Over 2.5 13
7 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 11
8 Failed To Score 7
3.95 Shots On Goal 5.05
12.68 Total Shots 14.2
5.16 Corners 5.8
50.7% Ball Possession 57.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Universidad de Chile's more proactive style and Universidad de Concepcion's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Universidad de Chile. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Universidad de Chile carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 36 points while Universidad de Concepcion sit 14 on 19, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Universidad de Concepcion expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Universidad de Chile in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universidad de Chile having the stronger overall control. Universidad de Chile look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Universidad de Concepcion Analysis

Universidad de Concepcion approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 19 points from 18 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 13:30, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Cecilio Waterman (3 goals), Jeison Fuentealba (1 goals), Osvaldo González (1 goals), with creative support from Yerco Oyanedel (2 assists), Agustín Urzi (2 assists), Bryan Ogaz (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Universidad de Chile Analysis

Universidad de Chile approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 36 points after 19 outings. They have recorded 10 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, with a 26:13 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Eduardo Vargas (6 goals), Agustín Arce (3 goals), Fabián Hormazábal (1 goals), with creative support from Lucas Assadi (4 assists), Eduardo Vargas (1 assists), Fabián Hormazábal (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Universidad de Concepcion won 4 times, Universidad de Chile won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:8 from Universidad de Concepcion's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.9%)
Predicted formations: Universidad de Concepcion 4-1-4-1 / Universidad de Chile 3-4-3
H2H summary: Universidad de Concepcion wins 4, draws 1, Universidad de Chile wins 2
Last matches: Universidad de Concepcion
24.08.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Everton de Vina
1
3
L
14.08.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
0
2
L
09.08.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Concepción
0
1
L
04.08.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Curico Unido
1
3
L
01.08.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
0
1
L
05.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Rangers de Talca
2
0
W
01.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
0
1
L
28.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Curico Unido
2
2
D
25.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
2
4
L
20.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Rangers de Talca
1
2
L
14.06.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
U. Catolica
1
5
L
30.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Union La Calera
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
2
2
D
16.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
O'Higgins
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Colo Colo
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Limache
0
3
L
13.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Cobresal
1
0
W
07.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Huachipato
1
5
L
15.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Palestino
1
0
W
09.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
1
1
D
Last matches: Universidad de Chile
23.08.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Colo Colo
1
2
L
15.08.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Deportes Limache
3
1
W
10.08.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Palestino
2
1
W
05.08.26
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Union San Felipe
1
0
W
02.08.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Huachipato
2
0
W
26.07.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
A. Italiano
2
1
W
05.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Santiago Wanderers
3
2
W
02.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Union La Calera
0
1
L
28.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Union San Felipe
2
0
W
24.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Union La Calera
3
3
D
21.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Santiago Wanderers
4
1
W
19.06.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
O'Higgins
2
0
W
14.06.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Union La Calera
2
2
D
30.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Concepción
2
1
W
17.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Cobresal
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
U. Catolica
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Everton de Vina
0
0
D
12.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Nublense
0
1
L
05.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
D. La Serena
4
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
H2H: Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile
09.03.26
H2H
Universidad de Chile
Universidad de Concepcion
1
1
D
03.01.21
H2H
Universidad de Chile
Universidad de Concepcion
2
0
L
29.10.20
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
1
0
W
03.12.19
H2H
Universidad de Chile
Universidad de Concepcion
0
0
D
16.03.19
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
2
1
W
23.09.18
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
3
1
W
29.04.18
H2H
Universidad de Chile
Universidad de Concepcion
1
2
W
30.09.15
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
Last matches: Universidad de Concepcion
14.08.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
0
2
L
04.08.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Curico Unido
1
3
L
01.08.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
0
1
L
05.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Rangers de Talca
2
0
W
01.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
0
1
L
30.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Union La Calera
0
0
D
26.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Colo Colo
1
2
L
13.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Cobresal
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Palestino
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Everton de Vina
0
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Concepción
2
1
W
31.01.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
11.05.25
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Santa Cruz
0
0
D
22.03.25
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Curico Unido
1
1
D
31.01.25
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
2
3
L
03.07.24
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Linares Unido
0
0
D
27.09.23
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Magallanes
1
3
L
15.08.23
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Temuco
1
2
L
18.07.23
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Rangers de Talca
2
0
W
02.07.23
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Fernández Vial
1
0
W
H2H at home: Universidad de Concepcion
29.10.20
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
1
0
W
16.03.19
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
2
1
W
23.09.18
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
3
1
W
30.09.15
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
Last matches: Universidad de Chile
15.08.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Deportes Limache
3
1
W
05.08.26
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Union San Felipe
1
0
W
26.07.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
A. Italiano
2
1
W
05.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Santiago Wanderers
3
2
W
24.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Union La Calera
3
3
D
14.06.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Union La Calera
2
2
D
17.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Cobresal
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Everton de Vina
0
0
D
12.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Nublense
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Colo Colo
1
0
W
13.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Palestino
0
0
D
08.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Huachipato
1
2
L
25.01.26
Fri
Universidad de Chile
Universitario
0
3
L
08.06.25
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Curico Unido
1
2
L
05.04.25
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Magallanes
3
1
W
10.02.25
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Santiago Morning
3
1
W
29.01.25
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Recoleta
6
1
W
09.10.24
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Coquimbo Unido
0
0
D
05.09.24
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Palestino
5
0
W
H2H away: Universidad de Chile
29.10.20
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
1
0
L
16.03.19
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
2
1
L
23.09.18
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
3
1
L
30.09.15
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
1
2
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.75
Draw 3.75
Home 4.52
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.32
Draw 2.32
Home 5.01
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 2.0 1.43
Over 2.25 1.66
Over 2.5 1.88
Over 2.75 2.12
Over 3.0 2.52
Over 3.5 3.14
Over 4.5 5.98
Under 1.5 3.63
Under 2.0 2.82
Under 2.25 2.23
Under 2.5 1.93
Under 2.75 1.72
Under 3.0 1.52
Under 3.5 1.35
Under 4.5 1.12
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.80
Draw 3.50
Home 4.10
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.40
Draw 2.25
Home 4.75
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.10
Draw 2.50
Home 4.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 2.5 1.90
Over 3.5 3.25
Over 4.5 6.50
Over 5.5 13.00
Over 6.5 26.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 11.00
Under 1.5 3.50
Under 2.5 1.90
Under 3.5 1.33
Under 4.5 1.11
Under 5.5 1.04
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.70
Draw 3.55
Home 4.37
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.22
Draw 2.20
Home 5.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.04
Draw 2.60
Home 4.42
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 1.0 1.04
Over 1.25 1.14
Over 1.5 1.23
Over 1.75 1.30
Over 2.0 1.37
Over 2.25 1.58
Over 2.5 1.78
Over 2.75 2.07
Over 3.0 2.30
Over 3.25 2.61
Over 3.5 2.90
Over 3.75 3.40
Over 4.0 4.40
Over 4.25 5.91
Over 4.5 5.50
Over 4.75 9.00
Over 5.0 8.60
Over 5.5 11.00
Over 6.5 26.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 10.50
Under 1.0 7.70
Under 1.25 4.74
Under 1.5 3.60
Under 1.75 3.13
Under 2.0 2.80
Under 2.25 2.23
Under 2.5 1.93
Under 2.75 1.67
Under 3.0 1.54
Under 3.25 1.42
Under 3.5 1.35
Under 3.75 1.26
Under 4.0 1.16
Under 4.25 1.08
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 4.75 1.02
Under 5.0 1.03
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.76
Draw 3.60
Home 4.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.23
Draw 2.15
Home 4.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.10
Draw 2.55
Home 4.25
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.27
Over 2.0 1.42
Over 2.25 1.64
Over 2.5 1.86
Over 2.75 2.10
Over 3.0 2.55
Over 3.5 3.10
Over 4.5 5.60
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.0 2.55
Under 2.25 2.05
Under 2.5 1.81
Under 2.75 1.62
Under 3.0 1.44
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.10

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 16 1 3 42:20 22 49
W D W W W
2 20 10 6 4 27:15 12 36
L W W W W
3 20 10 3 7 43:29 14 33
W L W L D
4 21 10 3 8 32:29 3 33
L W W L W
5 19 8 8 3 26:23 3 32
W W D W D
6 20 8 6 6 31:23 8 30
W D W L D
7 19 8 3 8 38:31 7 27
W L W L L
8 20 8 3 9 23:24 -1 27
D W W W W
9 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L D D L D
10 20 5 9 6 31:34 -3 24
D W D L D
11 20 7 3 10 24:31 -7 24
L D L W L
12 20 7 3 10 29:39 -10 24
L L L L D
13 20 5 7 8 23:26 -3 22
D D D W L
14 21 6 3 12 31:39 -8 21
W D L L W
15 19 5 4 10 14:33 -19 19
L L L L L
16 20 3 5 12 17:37 -20 14
D L L L D