FRANCE LIGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
Stadium de Toulouse
Referee: B. Dechepy
Toulouse
Match Timeline
Lyon
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
D. Methalie · Assist: Y. Gboho
Toulouse
🟨
26'
Aron Dønnum
Toulouse
🟨
44'
Dayann Methalie
Toulouse
🟨
45+1'
Alexis Vossah
Toulouse
🟨
46'
Mark McKenzie
Toulouse
🟨
56'
Endrick
Lyon
🟨
57'
Charlie Cresswell
Toulouse
🔄
60'
D. Methalie ↔ W. Kamanzi
Toulouse
🔄
61'
A. Vossah ↔ P. Demba
Toulouse
🔄
61'
J. Russell-Rowe ↔ Emersonn
Toulouse
🔄
67'
K. Merah ↔ P. Sulc
Lyon
🟨
70'
Roman Yaremchuk
Lyon
71'
C. Tolisso · Assist: Endrick
Lyon
78'
W. Kamanzi · Assist: S. Hidalgo
Toulouse
🟨
79'
Aron Dønnum
Toulouse
🟥
79'
Aron Dønnum
Toulouse
🔄
82'
S. Hidalgo ↔ D. Sidibe
Toulouse
🔄
83'
R. Yaremchuk ↔ E. Nuamah
Lyon
🔄
83'
T. Morton ↔ N. Nartey
Lyon
🔄
89'
A. Maitland-Niles ↔ M. Fofana
Lyon
🔄
90+1'
Y. Gboho ↔ S. Koumbassa
Toulouse

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Toulouse Win 23.5%
Draw 18.8%
Lyon Win 57.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toulouse1.24
Lyon1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toulouse Toulouse
WWDLW
52 GF / 53 GA
Lyon Lyon
WLDWL
80 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.74
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
0.98
19
BTTS Yes
21
20
Over 2.5
23
4.38
Shots on Goal
5.02

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toulouse Toulouse 37 matches
Lyon Lyon 46 matches
Toulouse Statistic Lyon
13 Wins 28
10 Draws 8
14 Losses 10
52 Goals For 80
53 Goals Against 45
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.74
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 0.98
19 BTTS Yes 21
25 Over 1.5 32
20 Over 2.5 23
13 Over 3.5 13
10 Clean Sheets 22
10 Failed To Score 7
4.38 Shots On Goal 5.02
13 Total Shots 12.91
4.51 Corners 5.37
43.1% Ball Possession 56.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Lyon's more proactive style and Toulouse's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Lyon carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 60 points while Toulouse sit 10 on 41, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toulouse expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Lyon in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lyon having the stronger overall control. Lyon look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Lyon.

Toulouse Analysis

Toulouse approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 41 points from 32 matches. Across the season they have posted 11 wins, 8 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 45:45 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Y. Gboho (8 goals), Emersonn (6 goals), F. Magri (5 goals), with creative support from S. Hidalgo (5 assists), Aron Dønnum (4 assists), D. Sidibe (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lyon Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 60 points from 32 games, Lyon bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 18 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats plus a goal balance of 52:34, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by P. Sulc (11 goals), C. Tolisso (10 goals), Endrick (5 goals), with creative support from Afonso Moreira (7 assists), Endrick (6 assists), C. Tolisso (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toulouse won 2 times, Lyon won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:34 from Toulouse's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.2%)
Predicted formations: Toulouse 3-4-2-1 / Lyon 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Toulouse 4, Lyon 5
H2H summary: Toulouse wins 2, draws 3, Lyon wins 10

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4
Lyon Away
34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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