FRANCE LIGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
Stadium de Toulouse
Referee: B. Dechepy
Toulouse
Match Timeline
Lyon
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
D. Methalie · Assist: Y. Gboho
Toulouse
🟨
26'
Aron Dønnum
Toulouse
🟨
44'
Dayann Methalie
Toulouse
🟨
45+1'
Alexis Vossah
Toulouse
🟨
46'
Mark McKenzie
Toulouse
🟨
56'
Endrick
Lyon
🟨
57'
Charlie Cresswell
Toulouse
🔄
60'
D. Methalie ↔ W. Kamanzi
Toulouse
🔄
61'
A. Vossah ↔ P. Demba
Toulouse
🔄
61'
J. Russell-Rowe ↔ Emersonn
Toulouse
🔄
67'
K. Merah ↔ P. Sulc
Lyon
🟨
70'
Roman Yaremchuk
Lyon
71'
C. Tolisso · Assist: Endrick
Lyon
78'
W. Kamanzi · Assist: S. Hidalgo
Toulouse
🟨
79'
Aron Dønnum
Toulouse
🟥
79'
Aron Dønnum
Toulouse
🔄
82'
S. Hidalgo ↔ D. Sidibe
Toulouse
🔄
83'
R. Yaremchuk ↔ E. Nuamah
Lyon
🔄
83'
T. Morton ↔ N. Nartey
Lyon
🔄
89'
A. Maitland-Niles ↔ M. Fofana
Lyon
🔄
90+1'
Y. Gboho ↔ S. Koumbassa
Toulouse

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Toulouse Win 23.5%
Draw 18.8%
Lyon Win 57.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toulouse1.24
Lyon1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toulouse Toulouse
WWDLW
52 GF / 53 GA
Lyon Lyon
WLDWL
80 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.74
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
0.98
19
BTTS Yes
21
20
Over 2.5
23
4.38
Shots on Goal
5.02

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toulouse Toulouse 37 matches
Lyon Lyon 46 matches
Toulouse Statistic Lyon
13 Wins 28
10 Draws 8
14 Losses 10
52 Goals For 80
53 Goals Against 45
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.74
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 0.98
19 BTTS Yes 21
25 Over 1.5 32
20 Over 2.5 23
13 Over 3.5 13
10 Clean Sheets 22
10 Failed To Score 7
4.38 Shots On Goal 5.02
13 Total Shots 12.91
4.51 Corners 5.37
43.1% Ball Possession 56.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Lyon's more proactive style and Toulouse's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Lyon carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 60 points while Toulouse sit 10 on 41, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toulouse expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Lyon in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lyon having the stronger overall control. Lyon look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Lyon.

Toulouse Analysis

Toulouse approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 41 points from 32 matches. Across the season they have posted 11 wins, 8 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 45:45 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Y. Gboho (8 goals), Emersonn (6 goals), F. Magri (5 goals), with creative support from S. Hidalgo (5 assists), Aron Dønnum (4 assists), D. Sidibe (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lyon Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 60 points from 32 games, Lyon bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 18 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats plus a goal balance of 52:34, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by P. Sulc (11 goals), C. Tolisso (10 goals), Endrick (5 goals), with creative support from Afonso Moreira (7 assists), Endrick (6 assists), C. Tolisso (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toulouse won 2 times, Lyon won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:34 from Toulouse's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.2%)
Predicted formations: Toulouse 3-4-2-1 / Lyon 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Toulouse 4, Lyon 5
H2H summary: Toulouse wins 2, draws 3, Lyon wins 10
Stats
Toulouse Toulouse
Lyon Lyon
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
8
7 Corner Kicks 8
20 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 1
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Goal 3
5 Shots off Goal 7
3 Blocked Shots 8
10 Shots insidebox 13
4 Shots outsidebox 5
2 Goalkeeper Saves 4
306 Total passes 481
249 Passes accurate 420
1.13 expected_goals 1.54
🟨 6 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Toulouse
Formation
Lyon
G. Restes
G. Restes
M. McKenzie
M. McKenzie
C. Cresswell
C. Cresswell
R. Nicolaisen
R. Nicolaisen
A. Donnum
A. Donnum
A. Vossah
A. Vossah
C. Casseres
C. Casseres
D. Methalie
D. Methalie
S. Hidalgo
🎯
S. Hidalgo
Y. Gboho
🎯
Y. Gboho
J. Russell-Rowe
J. Russell-Rowe
D. Greif
D. Greif
A. Maitland-Niles
A. Maitland-Niles
C. Mata
C. Mata
M. Niakhate
M. Niakhate
Abner Vinicius
Abner Vinicius
T. Morton
T. Morton
C. Tolisso
C. Tolisso
Endrick
🎯
Endrick
K. Merah
K. Merah
A. Moreira
A. Moreira
R. Yaremchuk
R. Yaremchuk
Toulouse 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
G. Restes
G
3
M. McKenzie
🟨 46'
D
4
C. Cresswell
🟨 57'
D
2
R. Nicolaisen
D
15
A. Donnum
🟨 26' 🟨 79' 🟥 79'
M
45
A. Vossah
↓ 61' 🟨 45+1'
M
23
C. Casseres
M
24
D. Methalie
⚽ 10' ↓ 60' 🟨 44'
M
11
S. Hidalgo
🎯 78' ↓ 82'
F
10
Y. Gboho
🎯 10' ↓ 90+1'
F
13
J. Russell-Rowe
↓ 61'
F
Substitutes
16
K. Haug
G
17
A. Francis
M
12
W. Kamanzi
⚽ 78' ↑ 60'
D
18
P. Demba
↑ 61'
M
37
I. Azizi
F
19
D. Sidibe
↑ 82'
D
20
Emersonn
↑ 61'
F
35
S. Koumbassa
↑ 90+1'
D
7
J. Vignolo
F
Lyon 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
D. Greif
G
98
A. Maitland-Niles
↓ 89'
D
22
C. Mata
D
19
M. Niakhate
D
16
Abner Vinicius
D
23
T. Morton
↓ 83'
M
8
C. Tolisso
⚽ 71'
M
9
Endrick
🎯 71' 🟨 56'
M
44
K. Merah
↓ 67'
M
17
A. Moreira
M
77
R. Yaremchuk
↓ 83' 🟨 70'
F
Substitutes
40
R. Descamps
G
33
H. Hateboer
D
11
M. Fofana
↑ 89'
F
37
E. Nuamah
↑ 83'
F
3
N. Tagliafico
D
10
P. Sulc
↑ 67'
M
21
R. Kluivert
D
99
N. Nartey
↑ 83'
M
39
M. de Carvalho
M
Last matches: Toulouse
25.07.26
Fri
Toulouse
Rodez
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
Toulouse
Strasbourg
2
1
W
25.04.26
Lig
Toulouse
Monaco
2
2
D
21.04.26
Cou
Toulouse
Lens
1
4
L
17.04.26
Lig
Toulouse
Lens
2
3
L
12.04.26
Lig
Toulouse
Lille
0
4
L
03.04.26
Lig
Toulouse
Paris Saint Germain
1
3
L
21.03.26
Lig
Toulouse
Lorient
1
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Toulouse
Metz
4
3
W
07.03.26
Lig
Toulouse
Marseille
0
1
L
04.03.26
Cou
Toulouse
Marseille
2
2
D
28.02.26
Lig
Toulouse
Rennes
0
1
L
21.02.26
Lig
Toulouse
Paris FC
1
1
D
15.02.26
Lig
Toulouse
Le Havre
1
2
L
08.02.26
Lig
Toulouse
Angers
0
1
L
04.02.26
Cou
Toulouse
Amiens
1
0
W
01.02.26
Lig
Toulouse
Auxerre
0
0
D
25.01.26
Lig
Toulouse
Stade Brestois 29
2
0
W
17.01.26
Lig
Toulouse
Nice
5
1
W
10.01.26
Cou
Toulouse
Angers
1
1
D
Last matches: Lyon
24.07.26
Fri
Lyon
VfL Wolfsburg
1
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Lyon
Slavia Praha
0
2
L
15.07.26
Fri
Lyon
Servette FC
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Lyon
FC ST. Gallen
6
3
W
08.07.26
Fri
Lyon
Mâcon
5
2
W
17.05.26
Lig
Lyon
Lens
0
4
L
03.05.26
Lig
Lyon
Rennes
4
2
W
25.04.26
Lig
Lyon
Auxerre
3
2
W
19.04.26
Lig
Lyon
Paris Saint Germain
2
1
W
12.04.26
Lig
Lyon
Lorient
2
0
W
05.04.26
Lig
Lyon
Angers
0
0
D
22.03.26
Lig
Lyon
Monaco
1
2
L
19.03.26
UEF
Lyon
Celta Vigo
0
2
L
15.03.26
Lig
Lyon
Le Havre
0
0
D
12.03.26
UEF
Lyon
Celta Vigo
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Lyon
Paris FC
1
1
D
05.03.26
Cou
Lyon
Lens
2
2
D
01.03.26
Lig
Lyon
Marseille
2
3
L
22.02.26
Lig
Lyon
Strasbourg
1
3
L
15.02.26
Lig
Lyon
Nice
2
0
W
H2H: Toulouse vs Lyon
10.05.26
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
2
1
W
05.10.25
H2H
Lyon
Toulouse
1
2
W
18.01.25
H2H
Lyon
Toulouse
0
0
D
29.09.24
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
1
2
L
15.03.24
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
2
3
L
10.12.23
H2H
Lyon
Toulouse
3
0
L
14.04.23
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
1
2
L
07.10.22
H2H
Lyon
Toulouse
1
1
D
26.01.20
H2H
Lyon
Toulouse
3
0
L
18.12.19
H2H
Lyon
Toulouse
4
1
L
02.11.19
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
2
3
L
03.03.19
H2H
Lyon
Toulouse
5
1
L
16.01.19
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
2
2
D
01.04.18
H2H
Lyon
Toulouse
2
0
L
20.12.17
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
1
2
L
Last matches: Toulouse
25.07.26
Fri
Toulouse
Rodez
1
1
D
25.04.26
Lig
Toulouse
Monaco
2
2
D
12.04.26
Lig
Toulouse
Lille
0
4
L
21.03.26
Lig
Toulouse
Lorient
1
0
W
07.03.26
Lig
Toulouse
Marseille
0
1
L
21.02.26
Lig
Toulouse
Paris FC
1
1
D
04.02.26
Cou
Toulouse
Amiens
1
0
W
01.02.26
Lig
Toulouse
Auxerre
0
0
D
17.01.26
Lig
Toulouse
Nice
5
1
W
02.01.26
Lig
Toulouse
Lens
0
3
L
06.12.25
Lig
Toulouse
Strasbourg
1
0
W
23.11.25
Lig
Toulouse
Angers
0
1
L
02.11.25
Lig
Toulouse
Le Havre
0
0
D
29.10.25
Lig
Toulouse
Rennes
2
2
D
19.10.25
Lig
Toulouse
Metz
4
0
W
27.09.25
Lig
Toulouse
Nantes
2
2
D
30.08.25
Lig
Toulouse
Paris Saint Germain
3
6
L
24.08.25
Lig
Toulouse
Stade Brestois 29
2
0
W
10.05.25
Lig
Toulouse
Lens
1
1
D
03.05.25
Lig
Toulouse
Rennes
2
1
W
H2H at home: Toulouse
10.05.26
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
2
1
W
29.09.24
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
1
2
L
15.03.24
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
2
3
L
14.04.23
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
1
2
L
02.11.19
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
2
3
L
16.01.19
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
2
2
D
20.12.17
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
1
2
L
Last matches: Lyon
24.07.26
Fri
Lyon
VfL Wolfsburg
1
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Lyon
Slavia Praha
0
2
L
19.04.26
Lig
Lyon
Paris Saint Germain
2
1
W
05.04.26
Lig
Lyon
Angers
0
0
D
15.03.26
Lig
Lyon
Le Havre
0
0
D
12.03.26
UEF
Lyon
Celta Vigo
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
Lyon
Marseille
2
3
L
22.02.26
Lig
Lyon
Strasbourg
1
3
L
07.02.26
Lig
Lyon
Nantes
1
0
W
25.01.26
Lig
Lyon
Metz
5
2
W
22.01.26
UEF
Lyon
BSC Young Boys
1
0
W
11.01.26
Cou
Lyon
Lille
2
1
W
03.01.26
Lig
Lyon
Monaco
3
1
W
07.12.25
Lig
Lyon
Lorient
0
1
L
27.11.25
UEF
Lyon
Maccabi Tel Aviv
6
0
W
23.11.25
Lig
Lyon
Auxerre
0
0
D
06.11.25
UEF
Lyon
Real Betis
0
2
L
02.11.25
Lig
Lyon
Stade Brestois 29
0
0
D
29.10.25
Lig
Lyon
Paris FC
3
3
D
18.10.25
Lig
Lyon
Nice
2
3
L
H2H away: Lyon
10.05.26
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
2
1
L
29.09.24
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
1
2
W
15.03.24
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
2
3
W
14.04.23
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
1
2
W
02.11.19
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
2
3
W
16.01.19
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
2
2
D
20.12.17
H2H
Toulouse
Lyon
1
2
W

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4
Lyon Away
34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Toulouse 4 missing
-
A. Francis
Missing Fixture Broken Leg
OUT
-
F. Magri
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
R. Messali
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
M. Sauer
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
Lyon 5 missing
-
R. Himbert
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
A. Hamdani
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
O. Mangala
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
T. Tessmann
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
S. Kango
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT