GEORGIA EROVNULI LIGA
28.05.2026 16:00
Stadion Ramaz Shengelia
Referee: A. Parjikia
Torpedo Kutaisi
Match Timeline
Gagra
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
I. Skrypnyk
Gagra
15'
K. Andric · Assist: M. Cherif
Torpedo Kutaisi
21'
D. Mujiri · Assist: Wanderson
Gagra
🟨
49'
K. Andric
Torpedo Kutaisi
🟨
59'
P. Borges
Gagra
🔄
60'
T. Nadaraia ↔ Warley
Torpedo Kutaisi
🔄
60'
S. Mane ↔ D. Bukia
Torpedo Kutaisi
🔄
65'
P. Borges ↔ G. Sadghobelashvili
Gagra
🔄
65'
D. Mujiri ↔ A. Andreychuk
Gagra
🟨
74'
G. Sadghobelashvili
Gagra
🔄
77'
Augusto ↔ O. Chochia
Gagra
🔄
80'
M. Cherif ↔ L. Kuprava
Torpedo Kutaisi
🔄
80'
M. Itrak ↔ K. Zita
Torpedo Kutaisi
🔄
87'
I. Skrypnyk ↔ A. Peikrishvili
Gagra
🟨
90+1'
Z. Tchavtchanidze
Gagra
🟥
90+5'
Felipe Pires
Torpedo Kutaisi

Torpedo Kutaisi vs Gagra Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 85.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
85.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Torpedo Kutaisi Win 85.5%
Draw 0%
Gagra Win 14.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Torpedo Kutaisi1.59
Gagra0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Torpedo Kutaisi Torpedo Kutaisi
WWDLW
33 GF / 16 GA
Gagra Gagra
WLDWL
20 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
1
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
11
BTTS Yes
11
9
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Torpedo Kutaisi Torpedo Kutaisi 20 matches
Gagra Gagra 20 matches
Torpedo Kutaisi Statistic Gagra
10 Wins 4
6 Draws 7
4 Losses 9
33 Goals For 20
16 Goals Against 30
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
11 BTTS Yes 11
13 Over 1.5 16
9 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 2
6 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Torpedo Kutaisi's more proactive style and Gagra's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Gagra having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Torpedo Kutaisi arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 23 points compared to Gagra in 9 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Gagra arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Gagra.

Torpedo Kutaisi Analysis

Torpedo Kutaisi arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 23 points after 14 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, while the 25:12 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Andric (6 goals), G. Arabidze (4 goals), D. Deisadze (3 goals), with creative support from G. Arabidze (7 assists), D. Deisadze (3 assists), V. Mamuchashvili (3 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Gagra Analysis

Gagra sit 9 with 11 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 11:21 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Andreychuk (2 goals), D. Mujiri (2 goals), I. Skrypnyk (2 goals), with creative support from Wanderson (4 assists), A. Andreychuk (2 assists), S. Zoidze (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Torpedo Kutaisi won 11 times, Gagra won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:12 from Torpedo Kutaisi's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Torpedo Kutaisi 4-4-2 / Gagra 4-4-2
H2H summary: Torpedo Kutaisi wins 11, draws 2, Gagra wins 2

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 13 7 6 32:21 11 46
W D L D W
2 26 12 8 6 43:34 9 44
D W W W W
3 25 11 9 5 40:27 13 42
W D D W L
4 24 12 4 8 33:27 6 40
W L W L L
5 25 11 4 10 33:27 6 37
D W W L D
6 26 9 9 8 41:31 10 36
W D D L D
7 26 9 5 12 36:49 -13 32
L L L D W
8
Gagra Away
26 6 10 10 24:36 -12 28
L D L W L
9 26 5 10 11 33:39 -6 25
L D D L L
10 26 2 10 14 19:43 -24 16
L D D W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2