PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio João Cardoso
Referee: R. Baixinho
Tondela
Match Timeline
Moreirense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
18'
M. Aiko · Assist: Pedro Maranhao
Tondela
🟨
29'
Alan
Moreirense
🔄
46'
Kiko Bondoso ↔ C. Teguia
Moreirense
🔄
46'
M. Stjepanovic ↔ L. Semedo
Moreirense
60'
Rony Lopes · Assist: T. Manso
Tondela
🔄
72'
Cicero ↔ B. Kimpioka
Tondela
🔄
72'
Rony Lopes ↔ J. Hodge
Tondela
🔄
72'
M. Aiko ↔ H. Tavares
Tondela
🔄
72'
Alanzinho ↔ Yan Maranhao
Moreirense
🔄
72'
Kiko ↔ Landerson
Moreirense
🟨
77'
Fabiano Souza
Moreirense
🔄
83'
H. Felix ↔ J. Siebatcheu
Tondela
🔄
83'
Fabiano ↔ L. Santos
Moreirense
🟨
90+4'
Jordan Siebatcheu
Tondela
🟨
90+3'
Cedric Teguia
Moreirense
🟥
90+4'
Maracás
Moreirense
🔄
90'
Pedro Maranhao ↔ J. Afonso
Tondela

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 63.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 22.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 50%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
63.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
22.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
50%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
68.5%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tondela Win 13.5%
Draw 23.1%
Moreirense Win 63.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tondela1.04
Moreirense1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tondela Tondela
WWDLW
24 GF / 52 GA
Moreirense Moreirense
WLDWL
37 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
0.75
Average Goals Scored
1.16
1.63
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
11
BTTS Yes
16
16
Over 2.5
17
3.44
Shots on Goal
3.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tondela Tondela 32 matches
Moreirense Moreirense 32 matches
Tondela Statistic Moreirense
5 Wins 12
10 Draws 6
17 Losses 14
24 Goals For 37
52 Goals Against 47
0.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
1.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
11 BTTS Yes 16
21 Over 1.5 24
16 Over 2.5 17
9 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 8
18 Failed To Score 9
3.44 Shots On Goal 3.25
10.44 Total Shots 8.75
4 Corners 3.47
43.6% Ball Possession 48.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Moreirense. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Moreirense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 42 points while Tondela sit 17 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Tondela Analysis

With 25 points from 32 games and a place of 17, Tondela still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 10 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 24:52 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Pedro Henryque (6 goals), Bebeto (3 goals), I. Cavaleiro (2 goals), with creative support from Rony Lopes (2 assists), Pedro Henryque (1 assists), Brayan Medina (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Moreirense Analysis

From their first 32 matches, Moreirense have collected 42 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 37:47 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Guilherme Schettine (9 goals), Alanzinho (5 goals), Travassos (5 goals), with creative support from Dinis Pinto (6 assists), Alanzinho (5 assists), Travassos (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tondela won 6 times, Moreirense won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:16 from Tondela's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (86.6%)
Predicted formations: Tondela 4-2-3-1 / Moreirense 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Tondela wins 6, draws 4, Moreirense wins 5
Stats
Tondela Tondela
Moreirense Moreirense
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
2
1 Corner Kicks 8
14 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Goal 2
6 Shots off Goal 6
5 Blocked Shots 2
8 Shots insidebox 4
6 Shots outsidebox 6
2 Goalkeeper Saves 1
365 Total passes 538
288 Passes accurate 463
1.39 expected_goals 0.29
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Tondela
Formation
Moreirense
Bernardo
Bernardo
T. Manso
🎯
T. Manso
J. Silva
J. Silva
C. Marques
C. Marques
R. Conceicao
R. Conceicao
Cicero
Cicero
J. Rodriguez
J. Rodriguez
Pedro Maranhao
🎯
Pedro Maranhao
H. Felix
H. Felix
M. Aiko
M. Aiko
Rony Lopes
Rony Lopes
Caio
Caio
Fabiano
Fabiano
Kevyn Monteiro
Kevyn Monteiro
Maracas
Maracas
Kiko
Kiko
M. Stjepanovic
M. Stjepanovic
A. Assis
A. Assis
Travassos
Travassos
N. John
N. John
Kiko Bondoso
Kiko Bondoso
Alanzinho
Alanzinho
Tondela 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
31
Bernardo
G
48
T. Manso
🎯 60'
D
44
J. Silva
D
4
C. Marques
D
27
R. Conceicao
D
97
Cicero
↓ 72'
M
32
J. Rodriguez
M
7
Pedro Maranhao
🎯 18' ↓ 90'
M
79
H. Felix
↓ 83'
M
90
M. Aiko
⚽ 18' ↓ 72'
M
16
Rony Lopes
⚽ 60' ↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
1
G. Souza
G
5
J. Afonso
↑ 90'
D
15
S. Sithole
M
2
Bebeto
D
23
B. Kimpioka
↑ 72'
F
10
J. Hodge
↑ 72'
M
8
H. Tavares
↑ 72'
M
29
J. Siebatcheu
↑ 83' 🟨 90+4'
F
26
A. van der Heide
F
Moreirense 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
Caio
G
70
Fabiano
↓ 83' 🟨 77'
D
4
Kevyn Monteiro
D
26
Maracas
🟥 90+4'
D
27
Kiko
↓ 72'
D
8
M. Stjepanovic
↓ 46'
M
25
A. Assis
M
2
Travassos
M
23
N. John
M
10
Kiko Bondoso
↓ 46'
M
11
Alanzinho
↓ 72' 🟨 29'
F
Substitutes
16
Mika
G
66
G. Batista
D
7
C. Teguia
↑ 46' 🟨 90+3'
F
9
L. Semedo
↑ 46'
F
30
J. Gower
M
17
A. Martinez
D
99
Yan Maranhao
↑ 72'
F
71
L. Santos
↑ 83'
D
78
Landerson
↑ 72'
F
Last matches: Tondela
16.05.26
Pri
Tondela
Arouca
1
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
Tondela
Casa Pia
1
0
W
29.04.26
Pri
Tondela
Sporting CP
2
2
D
25.04.26
Pri
Tondela
Nacional
0
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Tondela
FC Porto
0
2
L
13.04.26
Pri
Tondela
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
03.04.26
Pri
Tondela
Guimaraes
0
5
L
21.03.26
Pri
Tondela
AVS
0
0
D
09.03.26
Pri
Tondela
Rio Ave
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pri
Tondela
Santa Clara
2
2
D
20.02.26
Pri
Tondela
Estrela
2
0
W
13.02.26
Pri
Tondela
Alverca
1
1
D
07.02.26
Pri
Tondela
Estoril
2
2
D
01.02.26
Pri
Tondela
Benfica
0
0
D
25.01.26
Pri
Tondela
Famalicao
0
3
L
18.01.26
Pri
Tondela
SC Braga
0
1
L
11.01.26
Pri
Tondela
Moreirense
0
1
L
03.01.26
Pri
Tondela
Arouca
3
1
W
21.12.25
Pri
Tondela
Casa Pia
1
2
L
15.12.25
Pri
Tondela
Nacional
1
3
L
Last matches: Moreirense
16.05.26
Pri
Moreirense
AVS
0
0
D
02.05.26
Pri
Moreirense
Estrela
3
2
W
25.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
Benfica
1
4
L
20.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
Estoril
1
0
W
10.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
Famalicao
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
SC Braga
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Arouca
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
FC Porto
0
3
L
07.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Nacional
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Casa Pia
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
Sporting CP
0
3
L
16.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
Rio Ave
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
30.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Guimaraes
0
1
L
24.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Santa Clara
1
0
W
17.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Alverca
1
2
L
11.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Tondela
1
0
W
03.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
AVS
2
0
W
20.12.25
Pri
Moreirense
Estrela
0
0
D
14.12.25
Pri
Moreirense
Benfica
0
4
L
H2H: Tondela vs Moreirense
11.05.26
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
2
0
W
11.01.26
H2H
Moreirense
Tondela
1
0
L
29.04.23
H2H
Moreirense
Tondela
2
1
L
14.11.22
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
1
1
D
16.04.22
H2H
Moreirense
Tondela
2
0
L
03.01.22
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
2
1
W
17.04.21
H2H
Moreirense
Tondela
2
3
W
19.12.20
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
0
0
D
26.07.20
H2H
Moreirense
Tondela
1
2
W
18.01.20
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
1
1
D
17.02.19
H2H
Moreirense
Tondela
2
0
L
23.09.18
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
2
0
W
04.02.18
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
1
2
L
26.08.17
H2H
Moreirense
Tondela
0
3
W
18.03.17
H2H
Moreirense
Tondela
1
1
D
Last matches: Tondela
25.04.26
Pri
Tondela
Nacional
0
2
L
13.04.26
Pri
Tondela
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pri
Tondela
AVS
0
0
D
09.03.26
Pri
Tondela
Rio Ave
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pri
Tondela
Santa Clara
2
2
D
13.02.26
Pri
Tondela
Alverca
1
1
D
01.02.26
Pri
Tondela
Benfica
0
0
D
18.01.26
Pri
Tondela
SC Braga
0
1
L
03.01.26
Pri
Tondela
Arouca
3
1
W
21.12.25
Pri
Tondela
Casa Pia
1
2
L
07.12.25
Pri
Tondela
FC Porto
0
2
L
08.11.25
Pri
Tondela
Guimaraes
0
1
L
26.10.25
Pri
Tondela
Sporting CP
0
3
L
21.09.25
Pri
Tondela
Estrela
0
0
D
31.08.25
Pri
Tondela
Estoril
2
2
D
16.08.25
Pri
Tondela
Famalicao
0
1
L
H2H at home: Tondela
11.05.26
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
2
0
W
14.11.22
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
1
1
D
03.01.22
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
2
1
W
19.12.20
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
0
0
D
18.01.20
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
1
1
D
23.09.18
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
2
0
W
04.02.18
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
1
2
L
Last matches: Moreirense
25.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
Benfica
1
4
L
10.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
Famalicao
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
FC Porto
0
3
L
01.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Casa Pia
1
1
D
16.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
Rio Ave
2
1
W
30.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Guimaraes
0
1
L
17.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Alverca
1
2
L
03.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
AVS
2
0
W
20.12.25
Pri
Moreirense
Estrela
0
0
D
07.12.25
Pri
Moreirense
Estoril
3
3
D
09.11.25
Pri
Moreirense
SC Braga
1
2
L
02.11.25
Pri
Moreirense
Arouca
2
0
W
04.10.25
Pri
Moreirense
Nacional
2
3
L
22.09.25
Pri
Moreirense
Sporting CP
0
3
L
29.08.25
Pri
Moreirense
GIL Vicente
0
2
L
17.08.25
Pri
Moreirense
Santa Clara
1
0
W
H2H away: Moreirense
11.05.26
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
2
0
L
14.11.22
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
1
1
D
03.01.22
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
2
1
L
19.12.20
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
0
0
D
18.01.20
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
1
1
D
23.09.18
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
2
0
L
04.02.18
H2H
Tondela
Moreirense
1
2
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D