Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
63.5%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
22.2%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
68.5%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 0-1 |
-
|
- |
Tondela
Moreirense
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Tondela
32 matches
Moreirense
32 matches
| Tondela | Statistic | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Wins | 12 |
| 10 | Draws | 6 |
| 17 | Losses | 14 |
| 24 | Goals For | 37 |
| 52 | Goals Against | 47 |
| 0.75 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.16 |
| 1.63 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.47 |
| 11 | BTTS Yes | 16 |
| 21 | Over 1.5 | 24 |
| 16 | Over 2.5 | 17 |
| 9 | Over 3.5 | 7 |
| 6 | Clean Sheets | 8 |
| 18 | Failed To Score | 9 |
| 3.44 | Shots On Goal | 3.25 |
| 10.44 | Total Shots | 8.75 |
| 4 | Corners | 3.47 |
| 43.6% | Ball Possession | 48.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Moreirense. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Moreirense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 42 points while Tondela sit 17 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.
With 25 points from 32 games and a place of 17, Tondela still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 10 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 24:52 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Pedro Henryque (6 goals), Bebeto (3 goals), I. Cavaleiro (2 goals), with creative support from Rony Lopes (2 assists), Pedro Henryque (1 assists), Brayan Medina (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
From their first 32 matches, Moreirense have collected 42 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 37:47 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Guilherme Schettine (9 goals), Alanzinho (5 goals), Travassos (5 goals), with creative support from Dinis Pinto (6 assists), Alanzinho (5 assists), Travassos (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tondela won 6 times, Moreirense won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:16 from Tondela's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.
Tondela
3
2
6
6
5
2
Lineups
Tondela
Arouca
Tondela
Casa Pia
Tondela
Sporting CP
Tondela
Nacional
Tondela
FC Porto
Tondela
GIL Vicente
Tondela
Guimaraes
Tondela
AVS
Tondela
Rio Ave
Tondela
Santa Clara
Tondela
Estrela
Tondela
Alverca
Tondela
Estoril
Tondela
Benfica
Tondela
Famalicao
Tondela
SC Braga
Tondela
Moreirense
Tondela
Arouca
Tondela
Casa Pia
Tondela
Nacional
Moreirense
AVS
Moreirense
Estrela
Moreirense
Benfica
Moreirense
Estoril
Moreirense
Famalicao
Moreirense
SC Braga
Moreirense
Arouca
Moreirense
FC Porto
Moreirense
Nacional
Moreirense
Casa Pia
Moreirense
Sporting CP
Moreirense
Rio Ave
Moreirense
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Moreirense
Santa Clara
Moreirense
Alverca
Moreirense
Tondela
Moreirense
AVS
Moreirense
Estrela
Moreirense
Benfica
Tondela
Nacional
Tondela
GIL Vicente
Tondela
AVS
Tondela
Rio Ave
Tondela
Santa Clara
Tondela
Alverca
Tondela
Benfica
Tondela
SC Braga
Tondela
Arouca
Tondela
Casa Pia
Tondela
FC Porto
Tondela
Guimaraes
Tondela
Sporting CP
Tondela
Estrela
Tondela
Estoril
Tondela
Famalicao
Moreirense
Benfica
Moreirense
Famalicao
Moreirense
FC Porto
Moreirense
Casa Pia
Moreirense
Rio Ave
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Moreirense
Alverca
Moreirense
AVS
Moreirense
Estrela
Moreirense
Estoril
Moreirense
SC Braga
Moreirense
Arouca
Moreirense
Nacional
Moreirense
Sporting CP
Moreirense
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
Santa Clara
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 48 | 88 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 65 | 82 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 3 | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 49 | 80 |
W
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 28 | 59 |
D
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 13 | 56 |
W
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 6 | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 9 | 50 |
L
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 7 |
Moreirense
Away
|
34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | -12 | 43 |
D
L
W
L
W
|
| 8 | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | -17 | 42 |
W
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | -12 | 42 |
L
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | -3 | 39 |
L
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | -17 | 39 |
L
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | -22 | 36 |
D
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | -9 | 36 |
L
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 14 | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | -8 | 34 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 15 | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | -18 | 30 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | -26 | 30 |
D
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 |
Tondela
Home
|
34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | -28 | 28 |
L
W
W
D
L
|
| 18 | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | -40 | 21 |
D
W
W
D
D
|