PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
11.05.2026 19:15
Estádio João Cardoso
Referee: R. Baixinho
Tondela
Match Timeline
Moreirense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
18'
M. Aiko · Assist: Pedro Maranhao
Tondela
🟨
29'
Alan
Moreirense
🔄
46'
Kiko Bondoso ↔ C. Teguia
Moreirense
🔄
46'
M. Stjepanovic ↔ L. Semedo
Moreirense
⚽
60'
Rony Lopes · Assist: T. Manso
Tondela
🔄
72'
Cicero ↔ B. Kimpioka
Tondela
🔄
72'
Rony Lopes ↔ J. Hodge
Tondela
🔄
72'
M. Aiko ↔ H. Tavares
Tondela
🔄
72'
Alanzinho ↔ Yan Maranhao
Moreirense
🔄
72'
Kiko ↔ Landerson
Moreirense
🟨
77'
Fabiano Souza
Moreirense
🔄
83'
H. Felix ↔ J. Siebatcheu
Tondela
🔄
83'
Fabiano ↔ L. Santos
Moreirense
🟨
90+4'
Jordan Siebatcheu
Tondela
🟨
90+3'
Cedric Teguia
Moreirense
🟥
90+4'
Maracás
Moreirense
🔄
90'
Pedro Maranhao ↔ J. Afonso
Tondela

Tondela vs Moreirense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 63.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 22.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 50%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
63.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
22.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
50%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
68.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Tondela Win 13.5%
Draw 23.1%
Moreirense Win 63.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tondela1.04
Moreirense1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tondela Tondela
WWDLW
24 GF / 52 GA
Moreirense Moreirense
WLDWL
37 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
0.75
Average Goals Scored
1.16
1.63
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
11
BTTS Yes
16
16
Over 2.5
17
3.44
Shots on Goal
3.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tondela Tondela 32 matches
Moreirense Moreirense 32 matches
Tondela Statistic Moreirense
5 Wins 12
10 Draws 6
17 Losses 14
24 Goals For 37
52 Goals Against 47
0.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
1.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
11 BTTS Yes 16
21 Over 1.5 24
16 Over 2.5 17
9 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 8
18 Failed To Score 9
3.44 Shots On Goal 3.25
10.44 Total Shots 8.75
4 Corners 3.47
43.6% Ball Possession 48.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Moreirense. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Moreirense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 42 points while Tondela sit 17 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Tondela Analysis

With 25 points from 32 games and a place of 17, Tondela still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 10 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 24:52 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Pedro Henryque (6 goals), Bebeto (3 goals), I. Cavaleiro (2 goals), with creative support from Rony Lopes (2 assists), Pedro Henryque (1 assists), Brayan Medina (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Moreirense Analysis

From their first 32 matches, Moreirense have collected 42 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 37:47 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Guilherme Schettine (9 goals), Alanzinho (5 goals), Travassos (5 goals), with creative support from Dinis Pinto (6 assists), Alanzinho (5 assists), Travassos (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tondela won 6 times, Moreirense won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:16 from Tondela's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (86.6%)
Predicted formations: Tondela 4-2-3-1 / Moreirense 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Tondela wins 6, draws 4, Moreirense wins 5

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2