BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida
Tombense
Match Timeline
Vitória ES
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
84'
Vitória ES
Vitória ES

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 80%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
80%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tombense Win 45.1%
Draw 20%
Vitória ES Win 34.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tombense1.22
Vitória ES1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tombense Tombense
WWDLW
13 GF / 6 GA
Vitória ES Vitória ES
WLDWL
12 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
1.33
0.67
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
4
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tombense Tombense 9 matches
Vitória ES Vitória ES 9 matches
Tombense Statistic Vitória ES
4 Wins 4
4 Draws 2
1 Losses 3
13 Goals For 12
6 Goals Against 8
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
4 BTTS Yes 4
5 Over 1.5 7
4 Over 2.5 4
3 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Vitória ES. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Vitória ES having the stronger overall control.

Tombense Analysis

Tombense come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 16 points from 9 matches. The record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 13:6 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Cesar (3 goals), Luiz Felipe (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Vitória ES Analysis

Vitória ES come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 14 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 12:8 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Patrick (3 goals), Tony (3 goals), Araujo (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Tombense won 1 times, Vitória ES won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:0 from Tombense's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80%)
H2H summary: Tombense wins 1, draws 1, Vitória ES wins 0
Last matches: Tombense
27.06.26
Ser
Tombense
CRAC
0
0
D
21.06.26
Ser
Tombense
CRAC
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Porto BA
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Real Noroeste
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Democrata GV
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Rio Branco ES
2
2
D
03.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Democrata GV
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Real Noroeste
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Porto BA
3
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Vitória ES
1
0
W
Last matches: Vitória ES
27.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Ipatinga
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Ipatinga
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
2
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Porto BA
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
2
1
W
04.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
0
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Porto BA
3
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
1
L
H2H: Tombense vs Vitória ES
14.06.26
H2H
Tombense
Vitória ES
0
0
D
04.04.26
H2H
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
1
W
Last matches: Tombense
27.06.26
Ser
Tombense
CRAC
0
0
D
23.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Real Noroeste
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Democrata GV
3
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Porto BA
3
0
W
H2H at home: Tombense
14.06.26
H2H
Tombense
Vitória ES
0
0
D
Last matches: Vitória ES
27.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Ipatinga
0
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
2
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Porto BA
0
0
D
04.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
3
1
W
H2H away: Vitória ES
14.06.26
H2H
Tombense
Vitória ES
0
0
D

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)