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MEXICO › LIGA MX
18.10.2026 01:00
Estadio Nemesio Diez
Referee: Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava
Toluca
Match Timeline
Atletico San Luis
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
67'
Érick Gutiérrez
Toluca
⚽
73'
Rafael Llorente
Atletico San Luis
🔄
83'
Rafael Llorente ↔ Leonardo Flores
Atletico San Luis
🔄
83'
Anderson Duarte ↔ Juanpe
Atletico San Luis
🔄
87'
David Rodriguez ↔ Miguel García
Atletico San Luis
🔄
88'
Sebastien Salles-lamonge ↔ Benjamín Galdames
Atletico San Luis

Toluca vs Atletico San Luis Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.5%
Odds 1.32
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.40
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.5%
1.32 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.40 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80%
1.19 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.83 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Toluca Win 59.5%
Draw 12.6%
Atletico San Luis Win 27.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toluca1.93
Atletico San Luis1.68
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toluca Toluca
WWDLW
48 GF / 29 GA
Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis
WLDWL
30 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
2.29
Average Goals Scored
1.88
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
13
BTTS Yes
8
16
Over 2.5
12
6.56
Shots on Goal
4.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toluca Toluca 21 matches
Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 16 matches
Toluca Statistic Atletico San Luis
10 Wins 7
4 Draws 4
7 Losses 5
48 Goals For 30
29 Goals Against 22
2.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
13 BTTS Yes 8
18 Over 1.5 14
16 Over 2.5 12
11 Over 3.5 9
7 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 4
6.56 Shots On Goal 4.18
18.11 Total Shots 12.73
5.11 Corners 3.09
59% Ball Possession 52.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Toluca's more proactive style and Atletico San Luis's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Toluca arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 20 points compared to Atletico San Luis in 14 on 12, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atletico San Luis. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toluca expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico San Luis in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico San Luis having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Toluca Analysis

Toluca come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 20 points from 11 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 25:15 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Vega (4 goals), Paulinho (3 goals), F. Viñas (3 goals), with creative support from Helinho (4 assists), A. Vega (2 assists), N. Castro (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Atletico San Luis Analysis

Atletico San Luis sit 14 with 12 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 14:18 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on S. Salles-Lamonge (3 goals), D. Rodríguez (3 goals), Rafa Llorente (3 goals), with creative support from L. Flores (2 assists), S. Salles-Lamonge (1 assists), D. Rodríguez (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Toluca won 9 times, Atletico San Luis won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:11 from Toluca's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.77 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.4%)
Predicted formations: Toluca 4-2-3-1 / Atletico San Luis 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Toluca wins 9, draws 2, Atletico San Luis wins 2

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 3 1 27:14 13 24
W D W D L
2 12 6 3 3 26:16 10 21
D L D L W
3 12 6 3 3 19:18 1 21
W D W D L
4 12 5 5 2 19:12 7 20
D D L D W
5 12 6 2 4 27:21 6 20
W D D L W
6 11 6 2 3 15:13 2 20
L W W D W
7 12 5 3 4 18:17 1 18
L D W D W
8 12 5 1 6 17:16 1 16
W W W W W
9 11 4 4 3 15:14 1 16
D D L D L
10 12 4 4 4 19:20 -1 16
W D L D L
11 12 4 4 4 12:13 -1 16
D D L D L
12 10 4 2 4 17:15 2 14
D L W D L
13 12 3 5 4 14:16 -2 14
D W W L D
14 11 3 4 4 18:14 4 13
D L D W W
15 12 3 4 5 16:21 -5 13
D L W W L
16 12 2 5 5 13:19 -6 11
L L W D L
17 12 2 3 7 15:25 -10 9
L D L L L
18 12 1 1 10 8:31 -23 4
L D L W L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)