MEXICO LIGA MX
27.09.2026 01:00
Estadio Universitario

Tigres UANL vs Puebla Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.9%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tigres UANL Win 42.8%
Draw 12.1%
Puebla Win 45.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tigres UANL1.39
Puebla1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL
WWDLW
25 GF / 23 GA
Puebla Puebla
WLDWL
19 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.58
1.21
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
10
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
6
4.89
Shots on Goal
4.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 19 matches
Puebla Puebla 12 matches
Tigres UANL Statistic Puebla
6 Wins 6
7 Draws 2
6 Losses 4
25 Goals For 19
23 Goals Against 18
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.58
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
10 BTTS Yes 8
14 Over 1.5 9
8 Over 2.5 6
6 Over 3.5 5
7 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 2
4.89 Shots On Goal 4.44
15.78 Total Shots 13.22
6.39 Corners 5
53.7% Ball Possession 41.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Puebla. Puebla carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 14 points while Tigres UANL sit 15 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Tigres UANL Analysis

Tigres UANL sit 15 with 7 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats with a 9:13 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on F. Gorriarán (1 goals), R. Aguirre (1 goals), D. Sánchez (1 goals), with creative support from J. Brunetta (2 assists), Joaquim (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Puebla Analysis

Puebla arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 14 points after 9 matches. The record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 11:11 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Tomás (2 goals), I. Maestro Puch (1 goals), Eduardo Mustre (1 goals), with creative support from A. Herrera (2 assists), I. Maestro Puch (1 assists), Eduardo Mustre (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tigres UANL won 7 times, Puebla won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:15 from Tigres UANL's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.9%)
Predicted formations: Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1 / Puebla 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Tigres UANL wins 7, draws 5, Puebla wins 3

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 1 2 20:9 11 19
L W W W W
2 9 5 3 1 17:8 9 18
D W W D W
3 8 5 2 1 17:8 9 17
D L W W W
4 9 5 0 4 16:15 1 15
L W W W L
5 8 4 2 2 11:8 3 14
D W W L D
6 8 4 2 2 12:10 2 14
D L W L W
7 9 4 2 3 12:10 2 14
D W L D W
8 9 4 2 3 11:11 0 14
D L W L W
9 9 4 2 3 13:15 -2 14
D L D L W
10 8 4 1 3 14:10 4 13
W D L L W
11 9 3 3 3 15:10 5 12
D W W D D
12 9 3 3 3 12:13 -1 12
D L W L D
13 9 2 3 4 11:16 -5 9
W L L W D
14 9 1 5 3 8:13 -5 8
D L D D L
15 9 2 2 5 10:16 -6 8
L L D L D
16 9 1 4 4 9:13 -4 7
L D D D W
17 9 2 1 6 9:15 -6 7
W W L D L
18 9 1 0 8 6:23 -17 3
W L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)