GERMANY › 3. LIGA
16.05.2026 11:30
Donaustadion
Referee: F. Exner
SSV Ulm 1846
Match Timeline
Rot-Weiß Essen
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
2'
T. Musel · Assist: J. Cuber Potocnik
Rot-Weiß Essen
🟨
6'
Max Brandt
SSV Ulm 1846
🟨
10'
Dennis Chessa
SSV Ulm 1846
🟨
21'
Lukas Mazagg
SSV Ulm 1846
⚽
28'
L. Roser
SSV Ulm 1846
⚽
35'
D. Chessa
SSV Ulm 1846
⚽
40'
T. Musel
Rot-Weiß Essen
🔄
46'
J. Rios Alonso ↔ D. Abiama
Rot-Weiß Essen
🟨
52'
Tobias Kraulich
Rot-Weiß Essen
🔄
64'
R. Safi ↔ M. Obuz
Rot-Weiß Essen
🔄
64'
G. Swajkowski ↔ M. Janssen
Rot-Weiß Essen
🔄
67'
A. El-Zein ↔ L. Gorlich
SSV Ulm 1846
🔄
67'
M. Brandt ↔ E. Aksakal
SSV Ulm 1846
🟨
71'
Lukas Mazagg
SSV Ulm 1846
🟥
71'
Lukas Mazagg
SSV Ulm 1846
🔄
90+1'
B. Westermeier ↔ F. Vater
SSV Ulm 1846
🔄
90+4'
N. Vukancic ↔ E. Anderson Brown
SSV Ulm 1846
🔄
90+1'
E. Loder ↔ M. Mrden
SSV Ulm 1846
🔄
90+4'
K. Mizuta ↔ R. Reisig
Rot-Weiß Essen
⚽
90'
B. Huning
Rot-Weiß Essen

SSV Ulm 1846 vs Rot-Weiß Essen Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
77.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
SSV Ulm 1846 Win 22.8%
Draw 0%
Rot-Weiß Essen Win 77.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
SSV Ulm 18461.45
Rot-Weiß Essen2.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
SSV Ulm 1846 SSV Ulm 1846
WWDLW
47 GF / 75 GA
Rot-Weiß Essen Rot-Weiß Essen
WLDWL
75 GF / 64 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
2.03
2.03
Average Goals Conceded
1.73
27
BTTS Yes
30
24
Over 2.5
25
3.39
Shots on Goal
4.55

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

SSV Ulm 1846 SSV Ulm 1846 37 matches
Rot-Weiß Essen Rot-Weiß Essen 37 matches
SSV Ulm 1846 Statistic Rot-Weiß Essen
9 Wins 19
6 Draws 10
22 Losses 8
47 Goals For 75
75 Goals Against 64
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 2.03
2.03 Avg Goals Conceded 1.73
27 BTTS Yes 30
31 Over 1.5 32
24 Over 2.5 25
16 Over 3.5 19
5 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 2
3.39 Shots On Goal 4.55
10.13 Total Shots 11.84
4.77 Corners 4.32
41.6% Ball Possession 39.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Rot-Weiß Essen's more proactive style and SSV Ulm 1846's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Rot-Weiß Essen. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with SSV Ulm 1846 expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Rot-Weiß Essen in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rot-Weiß Essen having the stronger overall control. Rot-Weiß Essen carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 67 points while SSV Ulm 1846 sit 18 on 33, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

SSV Ulm 1846 Analysis

SSV Ulm 1846 approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 33 points from 37 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 22 defeats with a 47:75 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on E. Loder (10 goals), Dennis Chessa (7 goals), Leon Dajaku (5 goals), with creative support from Leon Dajaku (7 assists), N. Kolle (4 assists), E. Loder (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 1 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rot-Weiß Essen Analysis

Rot-Weiß Essen sit 4 with 67 points after 37 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 19 wins, 10 draws, and 8 defeats with a 75:64 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Janssen (14 goals), K. Mizuta (9 goals), T. Musel (9 goals), with creative support from K. Mizuta (11 assists), L. Brumme (7 assists), D. Abiama (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 7 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, SSV Ulm 1846 won 2 times, Rot-Weiß Essen won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:7 from SSV Ulm 1846's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.75 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: SSV Ulm 1846 3-4-2-1 / Rot-Weiß Essen 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: SSV Ulm 1846 wins 2, draws 0, Rot-Weiß Essen wins 2

Standings

3. Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 8 6 66:34 32 80
W D W W W
2 38 21 9 8 72:51 21 72
W W L W W
3 38 20 10 8 78:66 12 70
W W L L L
4 38 19 11 8 66:49 17 68
D D W L W
5 38 18 13 7 74:49 25 67
W W D L D
6 38 18 10 10 82:48 34 64
W L W L W
7 38 19 7 12 76:57 19 64
W W D W W
8 38 15 11 12 54:53 1 56
L L D W D
9 38 15 8 15 54:52 2 53
W L L D D
10 38 15 7 16 59:72 -13 52
L W L D D
11 38 15 6 17 51:53 -2 51
D L W L L
12 38 13 10 15 65:56 9 49
W W L W L
13 38 14 7 17 54:58 -4 49
L L W W L
14 38 13 7 18 57:69 -12 46
L L W L D
15 38 10 14 14 51:57 -6 44
L L W W D
16 38 12 7 19 65:71 -6 43
L W L L L
17 38 9 8 21 57:89 -32 35
L W L W L
18 38 7 13 18 51:70 -19 34
W D W D D
19 38 9 6 23 49:78 -29 33
L D L L W
20 38 5 6 27 38:87 -49 21
L L D D D
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Promotion)
Relegation