NETHERLANDS EREDIVISIE
--.--.---- --:--
Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel
Referee: A. Lindhout
Sparta Rotterdam
Match Timeline
Excelsior
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
G. Vianello
Excelsior
🟨
40'
Vito van Crooij
Sparta Rotterdam
🔄
46'
S. Bakari ↔ M. Zonneveld
Sparta Rotterdam
🔄
46'
P. Clement ↔ J. Baas
Sparta Rotterdam
50'
A. Zagre
Excelsior
53'
A. Santos
Sparta Rotterdam
🟨
54'
Julian Baas
Sparta Rotterdam
62'
N. Naujoks · Assist: G. de Regt
Excelsior
🔄
64'
R. Meissen ↔ I. Bronkhorst
Excelsior
🟨
71'
Teo Quintero
Sparta Rotterdam
🔄
71'
S. Mito ↔ J. de Guzman
Sparta Rotterdam
🔄
71'
G. Vianello ↔ P. van Aanholt
Sparta Rotterdam
🔄
75'
M. van Duinen ↔ J. Bergraaf
Excelsior
🔄
79'
J. Kitolano ↔ J. Toornstra
Sparta Rotterdam
🔄
86'
N. Naujoks ↔ A. Carlen
Excelsior
🔄
86'
D. Sanches Fernandes ↔ S. Wlodarczyk
Excelsior
🟨
89'
Patrick van Aanholt
Sparta Rotterdam
VAR
90+4'
Milan Zonneveld
Sparta Rotterdam
90'
M. Zonneveld · Assist: T. Lauritsen
Sparta Rotterdam

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.1%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sparta Rotterdam Win 49.1%
Draw 15.7%
Excelsior Win 35.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sparta Rotterdam1.35
Excelsior1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam
WWDLW
38 GF / 59 GA
Excelsior Excelsior
WLDWL
40 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.79
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
14
BTTS Yes
21
17
Over 2.5
20
4.36
Shots on Goal
4.27

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 33 matches
Excelsior Excelsior 33 matches
Sparta Rotterdam Statistic Excelsior
12 Wins 9
7 Draws 8
14 Losses 16
38 Goals For 40
59 Goals Against 54
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.79 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
14 BTTS Yes 21
25 Over 1.5 27
17 Over 2.5 20
12 Over 3.5 9
11 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 7
4.36 Shots On Goal 4.27
12.85 Total Shots 12.36
4.55 Corners 4.15
46.8% Ball Possession 47.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sparta Rotterdam expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Excelsior in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Excelsior having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Excelsior. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Sparta Rotterdam have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Sparta Rotterdam Analysis

Sparta Rotterdam approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 43 points from 33 matches. Their record of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 38:59, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through T. Lauritsen (12 goals), S. Mito (7 goals), J. Kitolano (6 goals), with creative support from T. Lauritsen (4 assists), M. van Bergen (4 assists), S. Mito (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Excelsior Analysis

Excelsior approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 35 points from 33 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 16 defeats with a 40:54 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Noah Naujoks (9 goals), D. Sanches Fernandes (6 goals), I. Yegoian (5 goals), with creative support from G. de Regt (6 assists), D. Sanches Fernandes (3 assists), R. Meissen (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Sparta Rotterdam won 5 times, Excelsior won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:18 from Sparta Rotterdam's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.73 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.3%)
Predicted formations: Sparta Rotterdam 4-2-3-1 / Excelsior 4-3-3
Missing players: Sparta Rotterdam 4, Excelsior 3
H2H summary: Sparta Rotterdam wins 5, draws 1, Excelsior wins 5

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 27 3 4 101:45 56 84
W W D W W
2 34 19 8 7 70:44 26 65
W D W W D
3 34 16 11 7 77:53 24 59
W L D D D
4 34 15 13 6 59:40 19 58
L W D D W
5 34 14 14 6 62:41 21 56
D L D W W
6 34 15 8 11 55:42 13 53
W W W L W
7 34 14 10 10 58:51 7 52
D D D D W
8 34 14 9 11 57:53 4 51
D L W W L
9 34 14 6 14 49:45 4 48
W W L L D
10 34 12 7 15 40:62 -22 43
L L D L L
11 34 11 6 17 49:63 -14 39
L W L L D
12 34 8 14 12 54:53 1 38
L L D D D
13 34 10 8 16 43:56 -13 38
W D W W D
14 34 9 10 15 49:55 -6 37
W W D W L
15 34 9 10 15 44:71 -27 37
L L W L D
16 34 8 8 18 35:55 -20 32
L D L W L
17 34 6 11 17 35:58 -23 29
D W L L D
18 34 5 4 25 35:85 -50 19
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Eerste Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie