ENGLAND NATIONAL LEAGUE
15.09.2026 18:45
Roots Hall

Southend vs Tamworth Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.1%
Odds 1.53
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.45
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.1%
1.53
BTTS Yes
88%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.45
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
4.44
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Southend Win 65.1%
Draw 7.6%
Tamworth Win 27.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Southend2.01
Tamworth1.73
Recent Form (Last 5)
Southend Southend
WWDLW
22 GF / 17 GA
Tamworth Tamworth
WLDWL
29 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.83
Average Goals Scored
1.93
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
2.27
10
BTTS Yes
14
8
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Southend Southend 12 matches
Tamworth Tamworth 15 matches
Southend Statistic Tamworth
5 Wins 5
4 Draws 4
3 Losses 6
22 Goals For 29
17 Goals Against 34
1.83 Avg Goals Scored 1.93
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 2.27
10 BTTS Yes 14
11 Over 1.5 15
8 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 11
2 Clean Sheets 0
0 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Southend's more proactive style and Tamworth's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tamworth having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Tamworth arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Tamworth. Southend arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 13 points compared to Tamworth in 19 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Southend Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 13 points from 6 games, Southend bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 12:8, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Tamworth Analysis

With 5 points from 6 games and a place of 19, Tamworth still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 12:16 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Southend won 2 times, Tamworth won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:3 from Southend's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.4%)
H2H summary: Southend wins 2, draws 1, Tamworth wins 1

Standings

Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 2 0 17:9 8 17
D W W W W
2 7 5 1 1 18:10 8 16
W W W L D
3 7 4 2 1 17:10 7 14
W D W W L
4 7 4 2 1 12:7 5 14
W W D W D
5 7 4 2 1 14:10 4 14
D W D L W
6 7 4 2 1 9:5 4 14
W W D W D
7 7 4 0 3 11:10 1 12
W W L L L
8 7 4 0 3 10:11 -1 12
L L W W L
9 7 4 0 3 7:8 -1 12
L L L W W
10 7 3 2 2 13:12 1 11
L L W W W
11 7 3 2 2 9:8 1 11
D L D W W
12 7 2 3 2 15:12 3 9
D L W D W
13 7 3 0 4 12:10 2 9
W L W L W
14 7 3 0 4 5:6 -1 9
L W L L L
15 7 3 0 4 8:13 -5 9
L W W W L
16 7 2 2 3 13:14 -1 8
D D L L W
17 7 2 2 3 10:12 -2 8
W L W D L
18 7 2 1 4 10:12 -2 7
W L L W L
19 7 2 1 4 9:11 -2 7
W L D L W
20 7 2 1 4 9:11 -2 7
L D L L W
21 7 1 3 3 10:11 -1 6
D W D L D
22 7 1 2 4 13:19 -6 5
L D L W L
23 7 1 1 5 5:13 -8 4
L D L L L
24 7 0 1 6 7:19 -12 1
L D L L L
Promotion - League Two
Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation