BELARUS 1. DIVISION
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Yunost Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.9%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Smorgon Win 83.9%
Draw 6.5%
BATE II Win 9.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Smorgon1.71
BATE II1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Smorgon Smorgon
WWDLW
26 GF / 33 GA
BATE II BATE II
WLDWL
21 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.24
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
2.41
9
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Smorgon Smorgon 21 matches
BATE II BATE II 17 matches
Smorgon Statistic BATE II
6 Wins 2
6 Draws 5
9 Losses 10
26 Goals For 21
33 Goals Against 41
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 2.41
9 BTTS Yes 12
16 Over 1.5 15
10 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 8
7 Clean Sheets 1
7 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward BATE II having the stronger overall control. BATE II arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors BATE II.

Smorgon Analysis

Smorgon sit 14 with 17 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 20:27 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

BATE II Analysis

With 11 points from 17 games and a place of 17, BATE II still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 10 defeats with a 21:41 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Smorgon won 0 times, BATE II won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from Smorgon's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.5%)
H2H summary: Smorgon wins 0, draws 1, BATE II wins 0
Last matches: Smorgon
01.08.26
1.
Smorgon
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0
3
L
25.07.26
1.
Smorgon
Gomel II
2
0
W
11.07.26
1.
Smorgon
Orsha
1
1
D
05.07.26
1.
Smorgon
Volna
1
3
L
27.06.26
1.
Smorgon
Shakhter Soligorsk
2
0
W
20.06.26
1.
Smorgon
Bumprom
1
2
L
14.06.26
1.
Smorgon
Minsk II
1
0
W
06.06.26
1.
Smorgon
Osipovichy
5
0
W
31.05.26
1.
Smorgon
Lida
4
4
D
23.05.26
1.
Smorgon
Niva
0
3
L
16.05.26
1.
Smorgon
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0
1
L
10.05.26
1.
Smorgon
FC Slutsk
1
1
D
02.05.26
1.
Smorgon
Dinamo Minsk II
1
3
L
24.04.26
1.
Smorgon
Ostrovets FC
0
0
D
18.04.26
1.
Smorgon
Slonim
0
2
L
10.04.26
1.
Smorgon
BATE II
1
1
D
04.04.26
1.
Smorgon
Uni Minsk
0
3
L
28.03.26
Fri
Smorgon
ML Vitebsk
2
4
L
04.03.26
Fri
Smorgon
Naftan
3
2
W
28.02.26
Fri
Smorgon
FC Minsk
1
0
W
Last matches: BATE II
02.08.26
1.
BATE II
Minsk II
0
1
L
24.07.26
1.
BATE II
Osipovichy
1
3
L
11.07.26
1.
BATE II
Lida
1
4
L
04.07.26
1.
BATE II
Niva
0
5
L
28.06.26
1.
BATE II
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
3
4
L
21.06.26
1.
BATE II
FC Slutsk
0
2
L
14.06.26
1.
BATE II
Dinamo Minsk II
3
2
W
06.06.26
1.
BATE II
Ostrovets FC
0
0
D
01.06.26
1.
BATE II
Slonim
2
5
L
22.05.26
1.
BATE II
Shakhter Soligorsk
1
1
D
17.05.26
1.
BATE II
Uni Minsk
1
1
D
08.05.26
1.
BATE II
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2
3
L
01.05.26
1.
BATE II
Gomel II
4
3
W
25.04.26
1.
BATE II
Orsha
1
2
L
18.04.26
1.
BATE II
Volna
1
1
D
10.04.26
1.
BATE II
Smorgon
1
1
D
04.04.26
1.
BATE II
Bumprom
0
3
L
H2H: Smorgon vs BATE II
10.04.26
H2H
BATE II
Smorgon
1
1
D
Last matches: Smorgon
25.07.26
1.
Smorgon
Gomel II
2
0
W
05.07.26
1.
Smorgon
Volna
1
3
L
27.06.26
1.
Smorgon
Shakhter Soligorsk
2
0
W
14.06.26
1.
Smorgon
Minsk II
1
0
W
31.05.26
1.
Smorgon
Lida
4
4
D
16.05.26
1.
Smorgon
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0
1
L
02.05.26
1.
Smorgon
Dinamo Minsk II
1
3
L
18.04.26
1.
Smorgon
Slonim
0
2
L
04.04.26
1.
Smorgon
Uni Minsk
0
3
L
04.03.26
Fri
Smorgon
Naftan
3
2
W
Last matches: BATE II
24.07.26
1.
BATE II
Osipovichy
1
3
L
04.07.26
1.
BATE II
Niva
0
5
L
21.06.26
1.
BATE II
FC Slutsk
0
2
L
06.06.26
1.
BATE II
Ostrovets FC
0
0
D
22.05.26
1.
BATE II
Shakhter Soligorsk
1
1
D
17.05.26
1.
BATE II
Uni Minsk
1
1
D
01.05.26
1.
BATE II
Gomel II
4
3
W
18.04.26
1.
BATE II
Volna
1
1
D
04.04.26
1.
BATE II
Bumprom
0
3
L

Standings

1. Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 3 2 37:18 19 39
W D W D L
2 17 10 5 2 37:19 18 35
L D D W W
3 17 10 3 4 39:19 20 33
W W D W W
4 17 9 3 5 31:20 11 30
L W D L W
5 17 9 3 5 31:27 4 30
W L W D W
6 17 9 2 6 32:27 5 29
W W L W W
7 17 7 5 5 36:25 11 26
L D W L L
8 17 7 4 6 31:23 8 25
D L D L L
9 16 7 4 5 30:22 8 25
L D L W D
10 17 8 1 8 25:31 -6 25
W W L W L
11 17 7 1 9 21:32 -11 22
W W W L W
12 16 5 3 8 19:29 -10 18
W L D W L
13 17 4 5 8 24:27 -3 17
L L D W W
14 17 4 5 8 20:27 -7 17
L W D L W
15 17 4 4 9 15:27 -12 16
D L W D L
16 17 2 9 6 19:26 -7 15
L L D D D
17 17 2 5 10 21:41 -20 11
L L L L L
18 17 3 1 13 20:48 -28 10
W W L L L