IRELAND › PREMIER DIVISION
08.05.2026 18:45
Tolka Park
Referee: O. Moran
Shelbourne
Match Timeline
Sligo Rovers
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
23'
J. Henry-Francis ↔ A. Coote
Shelbourne
🟨
49'
Evan Caffrey
Shelbourne
🟨
61'
Gareth McElroy
Sligo Rovers
🔄
63'
C. McHugh ↔ S. Blaney
Sligo Rovers
🔄
64'
W. Jarvis ↔ M. Lundgren
Shelbourne
🔄
64'
J. Martin ↔ S. Boyd
Shelbourne
🔄
72'
S. Stewart ↔ K. McDonagh
Sligo Rovers
🔄
77'
E. Caffrey ↔ S. Moore
Shelbourne
🔄
77'
K. McInroy ↔ E. Chapman
Shelbourne
🔄
90'
A. Meekison ↔ A. Nolan
Sligo Rovers

Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 74.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
74.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Shelbourne Win 45.1%
Draw 29.4%
Sligo Rovers Win 25.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Shelbourne1.57
Sligo Rovers1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Shelbourne Shelbourne
WWDLW
34 GF / 28 GA
Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers
WLDWL
23 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.89
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
15
BTTS Yes
7
14
Over 2.5
8
4.14
Shots on Goal
2.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Shelbourne Shelbourne 18 matches
Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers 21 matches
Shelbourne Statistic Sligo Rovers
7 Wins 8
6 Draws 3
5 Losses 10
34 Goals For 23
28 Goals Against 23
1.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
15 BTTS Yes 7
16 Over 1.5 12
14 Over 2.5 8
8 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 7
1 Failed To Score 9
4.14 Shots On Goal 2.6
13.43 Total Shots 10.2
5.14 Corners 3.67
53.2% Ball Possession 48.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Shelbourne have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sligo Rovers. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Shelbourne expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Sligo Rovers in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sligo Rovers having the stronger overall control.

Shelbourne Analysis

Shelbourne approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 17 points from 14 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats with a 23:24 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on H. Wood (6 goals), J. Martin (6 goals), Daniel Kelly (3 goals), with creative support from M. Lundgren (3 assists), H. Wood (2 assists), A. Coote (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sligo Rovers Analysis

From their first 15 matches, Sligo Rovers have collected 15 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, while the 11:19 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on W. Fitzgerald (4 goals), Archie Meekison (2 goals), A. Nolan (1 goals), with creative support from W. Fitzgerald (2 assists), J. Redmond (2 assists), Archie Meekison (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Shelbourne won 9 times, Sligo Rovers won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:12 from Shelbourne's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (74.5%)
Predicted formations: Shelbourne 3-5-2 / Sligo Rovers 4-3-3
H2H summary: Shelbourne wins 9, draws 4, Sligo Rovers wins 2

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
2 31 17 8 6 49:31 18 59
W L D D W
3 31 16 8 7 55:37 18 56
W W W W L
4 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
5 32 10 11 11 49:53 -4 41
L L D W L
6 31 9 12 10 41:44 -3 39
W L L D D
7 31 9 10 12 41:47 -6 37
L W L D W
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 32 8 10 14 38:51 -13 34
L W W L L
10 32 5 8 19 24:54 -30 23
L L L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation