UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
FUFA Kadiba Stadium
SC Villa
Match Timeline
UPDF
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
15'
I. Kajubi
SC Villa
24'
P. Kakande
SC Villa
61'
E. Ochen
UPDF

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 56.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 68.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
56.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
68.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
SC Villa Win 78.1%
Draw 3.9%
UPDF Win 18%
Expected Goals (xG)
SC Villa1.44
UPDF0.7
Recent Form (Last 5)
SC Villa SC Villa
WWDLW
42 GF / 16 GA
UPDF UPDF
WLDWL
23 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
0.79
0.57
Average Goals Conceded
1.34
10
BTTS Yes
11
10
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

SC Villa SC Villa 28 matches
UPDF UPDF 29 matches
SC Villa Statistic UPDF
16 Wins 5
7 Draws 7
5 Losses 17
42 Goals For 23
16 Goals Against 39
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 0.79
0.57 Avg Goals Conceded 1.34
10 BTTS Yes 11
16 Over 1.5 15
10 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 6
15 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 15
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by SC Villa's more proactive style and UPDF's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward UPDF. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward UPDF having the stronger overall control. SC Villa arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 55 points compared to UPDF in 14 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. UPDF arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

SC Villa Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 55 points from 28 games, SC Villa bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 16 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, with a 41:15 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on F. Ssebuufu (8 goals), N. Yiga (7 goals), C. Lwanga (4 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

UPDF Analysis

With 22 points from 29 games and a place of 14, UPDF still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 23:39, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through S. Ssekamatte (7 goals), E. Ochen (6 goals), R. Faridi (3 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, SC Villa won 8 times, UPDF won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:7 from SC Villa's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)
H2H summary: SC Villa wins 8, draws 2, UPDF wins 4
Last matches: SC Villa
20.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
NEC
4
1
W
13.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
Mbarara City
3
1
W
08.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
BUL
0
0
D
30.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Kitara
0
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
22.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Lugazi
1
0
W
15.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Vipers
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
KCCA
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Police
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
0
0
D
19.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
2
0
W
14.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
URA
0
0
D
31.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Lugazi
0
0
D
28.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Mbarara City
6
1
W
23.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
BUL
1
2
L
08.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
1
0
W
17.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Calvary
1
0
W
11.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
URA
3
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
0
1
L
Last matches: UPDF
19.05.26
Pre
UPDF
Calvary
0
0
D
13.05.26
Pre
UPDF
KCCA
1
2
L
07.05.26
Pre
UPDF
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
29.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Police
0
2
L
24.04.26
Pre
UPDF
URA
0
0
D
21.04.26
Pre
UPDF
BUL
5
2
W
15.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Express
0
1
L
09.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Mbarara City
3
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Maroons
0
0
D
11.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Vipers
1
2
L
06.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Kitara
1
1
D
03.03.26
Pre
UPDF
NEC
0
1
L
18.02.26
Pre
UPDF
Lugazi
0
1
L
13.02.26
Pre
UPDF
Buhimba Saints
0
0
D
30.01.26
Pre
UPDF
BUL
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
UPDF
KCCA
0
4
L
21.01.26
Pre
UPDF
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
07.01.26
Pre
UPDF
Kitara
1
2
L
16.12.25
Pre
UPDF
NEC
0
0
D
10.12.25
Pre
UPDF
Buhimba Saints
2
2
D
H2H: SC Villa vs UPDF
23.05.26
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
2
1
W
25.11.25
H2H
UPDF
SC Villa
0
1
W
02.03.25
H2H
UPDF
SC Villa
2
0
L
01.11.24
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
5
0
W
11.05.24
H2H
UPDF
SC Villa
0
2
W
02.01.24
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
3
0
W
16.05.23
H2H
UPDF
SC Villa
0
2
W
11.12.22
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
2
0
W
06.02.22
H2H
UPDF
SC Villa
0
0
D
08.01.22
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
0
0
D
18.06.21
H2H
UPDF
SC Villa
2
1
L
27.02.21
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
0
1
L
05.05.18
H2H
UPDF
SC Villa
1
0
L
14.10.17
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
2
0
W
Last matches: SC Villa
08.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
BUL
0
0
D
25.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
15.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Vipers
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
KCCA
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
0
0
D
19.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
2
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Lugazi
0
0
D
28.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Mbarara City
6
1
W
17.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Calvary
1
0
W
11.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
URA
3
0
W
20.11.25
Pre
SC Villa
NEC
2
1
W
06.11.25
Pre
SC Villa
Kitara
1
0
W
24.10.25
Pre
SC Villa
Police
2
1
W
15.10.25
Pre
SC Villa
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
H2H at home: SC Villa
23.05.26
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
2
1
W
01.11.24
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
5
0
W
02.01.24
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
3
0
W
11.12.22
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
2
0
W
08.01.22
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
0
0
D
27.02.21
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
0
1
L
14.10.17
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
2
0
W
Last matches: UPDF
07.05.26
Pre
UPDF
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
29.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Police
0
2
L
21.04.26
Pre
UPDF
BUL
5
2
W
14.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Maroons
0
0
D
03.03.26
Pre
UPDF
NEC
0
1
L
18.02.26
Pre
UPDF
Lugazi
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
UPDF
KCCA
0
4
L
07.01.26
Pre
UPDF
Kitara
1
2
L
10.12.25
Pre
UPDF
Buhimba Saints
2
2
D
02.12.25
Pre
UPDF
Vipers
1
5
L
19.11.25
Pre
UPDF
Calvary
1
0
W
29.10.25
Pre
UPDF
URA
2
3
L
03.10.25
Pre
UPDF
Mbarara City
1
0
W
26.09.25
Pre
UPDF
Express
0
1
L
H2H away: UPDF
23.05.26
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
2
1
L
01.11.24
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
5
0
L
02.01.24
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
3
0
L
11.12.22
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
2
0
L
08.01.22
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
0
0
D
27.02.21
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
0
1
W
14.10.17
H2H
SC Villa
UPDF
2
0
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14
UPDF Away
30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League