PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Municipal de Braga
Referee: G. Correia
SC Braga
Match Timeline
Estrela
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
S. Lekovic
Estrela
15'
G. Martinez
SC Braga
🟨
37'
João Moutinho
SC Braga
🔄
46'
G. Martinez ↔ L. Lelo
SC Braga
🟨
55'
Renan Ribeiro
Estrela
🟨
61'
Luan Patrick
Estrela
🔄
68'
R. Horta ↔ Gorby
SC Braga
🔄
68'
G. Doue ↔ L. Antonetti
Estrela
🔄
68'
I. Stoica ↔ Jovane
Estrela
🔄
68'
S. van Hooijdonk ↔ Robinho
Estrela
🔄
78'
P. Moreira ↔ K. Jansson
Estrela
🔄
80'
L. Hornicek ↔ J. Carvalho
SC Braga
🔄
80'
Luisinho ↔ A. Gil
SC Braga
🔄
85'
P. Oliveira ↔ J. Noro
SC Braga
🟨
87'
Stefan Leković
Estrela
🟨
87'
Abraham Marcus
Estrela
🟨
90+7'
Stefan Leković
Estrela
🟥
90+7'
Stefan Leković
Estrela
🔄
90+1'
A. Marcus ↔ J. Meireles
Estrela
90'
P. Victor
SC Braga
90'
S. Lekovic · Assist: Jovane
Estrela

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 97%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 25.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
97%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
25.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
SC Braga Win 97%
Draw 0%
Estrela Win 3%
Expected Goals (xG)
SC Braga1.78
Estrela1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
SC Braga SC Braga
WWDLW
99 GF / 50 GA
Estrela Estrela
WLDWL
36 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.87
Average Goals Scored
1.09
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
26
BTTS Yes
15
30
Over 2.5
17
4.3
Shots on Goal
3.55

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

SC Braga SC Braga 53 matches
Estrela Estrela 33 matches
SC Braga Statistic Estrela
29 Wins 6
14 Draws 11
10 Losses 16
99 Goals For 36
50 Goals Against 54
1.87 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
26 BTTS Yes 15
39 Over 1.5 24
30 Over 2.5 17
18 Over 3.5 12
23 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 15
4.3 Shots On Goal 3.55
10.47 Total Shots 11
4.66 Corners 3.39
54.1% Ball Possession 47.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around SC Braga's more proactive style and Estrela's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. SC Braga arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 58 points compared to Estrela in 15 on 29, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Estrela. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with SC Braga expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Estrela in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Estrela having the stronger overall control. Estrela arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

SC Braga Analysis

Placed 4 with 58 points from 33 outings, SC Braga continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 16 wins, 10 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 62:34 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by R. Zalazar (16 goals), R. Horta (14 goals), P. Victor (9 goals), with creative support from R. Zalazar (5 assists), R. Horta (4 assists), P. Victor (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Estrela Analysis

With 29 points from 33 games and a place of 15, Estrela still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 11 draws, and 16 defeats with a 36:54 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Jovane Cabral (7 goals), Kikas (6 goals), S. Lopes Cabral (6 goals), with creative support from S. Lopes Cabral (5 assists), A. Marcus (5 assists), I. Stoica (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, SC Braga won 3 times, Estrela won 0 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:8 from SC Braga's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.14 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: SC Braga 3-4-2-1 / Estrela 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: SC Braga wins 3, draws 4, Estrela wins 0
Stats
SC Braga SC Braga
Estrela Estrela
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
0
7 Corner Kicks 1
13 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1
74% Ball Possession 26%
14 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Goal 4
6 Shots off Goal 2
4 Blocked Shots 0
7 Shots insidebox 4
7 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
692 Total passes 246
628 Passes accurate 183
2.41 expected_goals 0.73
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 5 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

SC Braga
Formation
Estrela
L. Hornicek
L. Hornicek
G. Lagerbielke
G. Lagerbielke
P. Oliveira
P. Oliveira
Gabriel Moscardo
Gabriel Moscardo
V. Gomez
V. Gomez
Luisinho
Luisinho
J. Moutinho
J. Moutinho
G. Martinez
G. Martinez
R. Horta
R. Horta
P. Victor
P. Victor
F. Navarro
F. Navarro
R. Ribeiro
R. Ribeiro
Luan Patrick
Luan Patrick
S. Lekovic
⚽ 2
S. Lekovic
Otavio
Otavio
J. Encada
J. Encada
G. Doue
G. Doue
P. Moreira
P. Moreira
B. Langa
B. Langa
A. Marcus
A. Marcus
S. van Hooijdonk
S. van Hooijdonk
I. Stoica
I. Stoica
SC Braga 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
1
L. Hornicek
↓ 80'
G
14
G. Lagerbielke
D
15
P. Oliveira
↓ 85'
D
17
Gabriel Moscardo
D
2
V. Gomez
M
90
Luisinho
↓ 80'
M
8
J. Moutinho
🟨 37'
M
77
G. Martinez
⚽ 15' ↓ 46'
M
21
R. Horta
↓ 68'
F
18
P. Victor
⚽ 90'
F
39
F. Navarro
F
Substitutes
78
J. Carvalho
↑ 80'
G
5
L. Lelo
↑ 46'
D
53
J. Noro
↑ 85'
41
Y. da Rocha
M
80
Vasconcelos
M
92
A. Gil
↑ 80'
M
9
A. El Ouazzani
F
29
Gorby
↑ 68'
M
96
A. Sousa
Estrela 3-4-3
Starting XI
40
R. Ribeiro
🟨 55'
G
30
Luan Patrick
🟨 61'
D
4
S. Lekovic
⚽ 5' ⚽ 90' 🟨 87' 🟨 90+7' 🟥 90+7'
D
83
Otavio
D
17
J. Encada
M
39
G. Doue
↓ 68'
M
19
P. Moreira
↓ 78'
M
24
B. Langa
M
99
A. Marcus
↓ 90+1' 🟨 87'
F
20
S. van Hooijdonk
↓ 68'
F
10
I. Stoica
↓ 68'
F
Substitutes
1
D. Pinto
G
7
L. Antonetti
↑ 68'
F
28
T. Moustier
M
11
Jovane
🎯 90' ↑ 68'
F
14
Bernardo Schappo
D
6
K. Jansson
↑ 78'
M
18
J. Meireles
↑ 90+1'
F
21
M. Scholze
D
8
Robinho
↑ 68'
M
Last matches: SC Braga
10.07.26
Fri
SC Braga
Stoke City
1
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
SC Braga
Buxton
3
1
W
03.07.26
Fri
SC Braga
São João Ver
1
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
SC Braga
Benfica
2
2
D
07.05.26
UEF
SC Braga
SC Freiburg
1
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
SC Braga
Estoril
1
1
D
30.04.26
UEF
SC Braga
SC Freiburg
2
1
W
26.04.26
Pri
SC Braga
Santa Clara
1
2
L
23.04.26
Pri
SC Braga
Casa Pia
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
SC Braga
Famalicao
2
2
D
16.04.26
UEF
SC Braga
Real Betis
4
2
W
12.04.26
Pri
SC Braga
Arouca
1
0
W
08.04.26
UEF
SC Braga
Real Betis
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
SC Braga
Moreirense
1
0
W
22.03.26
Pri
SC Braga
FC Porto
1
2
L
18.03.26
UEF
SC Braga
Ferencvarosi TC
4
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
SC Braga
Ferencvarosi TC
0
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
SC Braga
Sporting CP
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
SC Braga
Nacional
2
1
W
21.02.26
Pri
SC Braga
Guimaraes
3
2
W
Last matches: Estrela
11.05.26
Pri
Estrela
Famalicao
0
0
D
02.05.26
Pri
Estrela
Moreirense
2
3
L
26.04.26
Pri
Estrela
FC Porto
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Arouca
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Sporting CP
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Nacional
0
2
L
20.03.26
Pri
Estrela
Casa Pia
4
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Estrela
Rio Ave
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Estrela
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
Estrela
AVS
0
0
D
20.02.26
Pri
Estrela
Tondela
0
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Estrela
Guimaraes
1
2
L
07.02.26
Pri
Estrela
Santa Clara
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pri
Estrela
Alverca
1
1
D
25.01.26
Pri
Estrela
Benfica
0
4
L
19.01.26
Pri
Estrela
Estoril
0
5
L
06.01.26
Fri
Estrela
VfL Wolfsburg
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pri
Estrela
SC Braga
3
3
D
27.12.25
Pri
Estrela
Famalicao
3
2
W
20.12.25
Pri
Estrela
Moreirense
0
0
D
H2H: SC Braga vs Estrela
16.05.26
H2H
SC Braga
Estrela
2
2
D
03.01.26
H2H
Estrela
SC Braga
3
3
D
19.01.25
H2H
Estrela
SC Braga
0
1
W
11.08.24
H2H
SC Braga
Estrela
1
1
D
02.03.24
H2H
SC Braga
Estrela
3
0
W
28.09.23
H2H
Estrela
SC Braga
2
4
W
13.07.21
H2H
Estrela
SC Braga
0
0
D
Last matches: SC Braga
03.07.26
Fri
SC Braga
São João Ver
1
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
SC Braga
Estoril
1
1
D
30.04.26
UEF
SC Braga
SC Freiburg
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
SC Braga
Famalicao
2
2
D
12.04.26
Pri
SC Braga
Arouca
1
0
W
08.04.26
UEF
SC Braga
Real Betis
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pri
SC Braga
FC Porto
1
2
L
18.03.26
UEF
SC Braga
Ferencvarosi TC
4
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
SC Braga
Sporting CP
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
SC Braga
Guimaraes
3
2
W
08.02.26
Pri
SC Braga
Rio Ave
3
0
W
25.01.26
Pri
SC Braga
Alverca
5
0
W
22.01.26
UEF
SC Braga
Nottingham Forest
1
0
W
28.12.25
Pri
SC Braga
Benfica
2
2
D
15.12.25
Pri
SC Braga
Santa Clara
1
0
W
09.11.25
Pri
SC Braga
Moreirense
2
1
W
06.11.25
UEF
SC Braga
Genk
3
4
L
26.10.25
Pri
SC Braga
Casa Pia
4
0
W
23.10.25
UEF
SC Braga
FK Crvena Zvezda
2
0
W
28.09.25
Pri
SC Braga
Nacional
0
1
L
H2H at home: SC Braga
16.05.26
H2H
SC Braga
Estrela
2
2
D
11.08.24
H2H
SC Braga
Estrela
1
1
D
02.03.24
H2H
SC Braga
Estrela
3
0
W
Last matches: Estrela
02.05.26
Pri
Estrela
Moreirense
2
3
L
19.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Arouca
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Nacional
0
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
Estrela
Rio Ave
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Estrela
AVS
0
0
D
14.02.26
Pri
Estrela
Guimaraes
1
2
L
31.01.26
Pri
Estrela
Alverca
1
1
D
25.01.26
Pri
Estrela
Benfica
0
4
L
27.12.25
Pri
Estrela
Famalicao
3
2
W
15.12.25
Pri
Estrela
FC Porto
1
3
L
30.11.25
Pri
Estrela
Sporting CP
0
4
L
01.11.25
Pri
Estrela
Casa Pia
5
3
W
04.10.25
Pri
Estrela
GIL Vicente
0
2
L
21.09.25
Pri
Estrela
Tondela
0
0
D
31.08.25
Pri
Estrela
Santa Clara
0
0
D
11.08.25
Pri
Estrela
Estoril
1
1
D
H2H away: Estrela
16.05.26
H2H
SC Braga
Estrela
2
2
D
11.08.24
H2H
SC Braga
Estrela
1
1
D
02.03.24
H2H
SC Braga
Estrela
3
0
L