ITALY SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
Referee: F. La Penna
Sassuolo
Match Timeline
Lecce
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
W. Cheddira
Lecce
20'
A. Lauriente · Assist: Pedro Felipe
Sassuolo
25'
W. Cheddira · Assist: L. Banda
Lecce
🟨
54'
Ylber Ramadani
Lecce
🔄
63'
M. Nzola ↔ A. Pinamonti
Sassuolo
🔄
63'
N. Matic ↔ L. Lipani
Sassuolo
🔄
63'
L. Banda ↔ G. Jean
Lecce
🔄
72'
D. Berardi ↔ C. Volpato
Sassuolo
🔄
72'
I. Kone ↔ D. Bakola
Sassuolo
🟨
77'
Tarik Muharemović
Sassuolo
🔄
79'
S. Pierotti ↔ O. Gandelman
Lecce
🔄
80'
W. Cheddira ↔ F. Camarda
Lecce
🟨
81'
Danilo Veiga
Lecce
82'
A. Pinamonti · Assist: U. Garcia
Sassuolo
🟨
85'
Tiago Gabriel
Lecce
🔄
85'
D. Veiga ↔ K. Ndri
Lecce
🔄
85'
Y. Ramadani ↔ N. Stulic
Lecce
🔄
88'
A. Lauriente ↔ C. Frangella
Sassuolo
🟨
90+1'
Antonino Gallo
Lecce
90'
N. Stulic · Assist: O. Gandelman
Lecce

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sassuolo Win 82.9%
Draw 0%
Lecce Win 17.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sassuolo1.24
Lecce0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sassuolo Sassuolo
WWDLW
45 GF / 49 GA
Lecce Lecce
WLDWL
26 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
0.68
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.34
19
BTTS Yes
13
21
Over 2.5
14
3.76
Shots on Goal
2.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sassuolo Sassuolo 38 matches
Lecce Lecce 38 matches
Sassuolo Statistic Lecce
15 Wins 9
7 Draws 8
16 Losses 21
45 Goals For 26
49 Goals Against 51
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 0.68
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.34
19 BTTS Yes 13
28 Over 1.5 24
21 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 4
9 Clean Sheets 10
12 Failed To Score 20
3.76 Shots On Goal 2.39
10.87 Total Shots 9.53
4.03 Corners 4.18
44.9% Ball Possession 41.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sassuolo expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Lecce in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lecce having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Lecce.

Sassuolo Analysis

Sassuolo sit 11 with 49 points after 36 league matches. Their overall return of 14 wins, 7 draws, and 15 losses with goals at 44:46 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Pinamonti (8 goals), Domenico Berardi (8 goals), A. Lauriente (6 goals), with creative support from A. Lauriente (9 assists), Domenico Berardi (4 assists), Kristian Thorstvedt (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lecce Analysis

With 32 points from 36 games and a place of 17, Lecce still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 8 draws, and 20 defeats, and the 24:48 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Lameck Banda (4 goals), Lassana Coulibaly (3 goals), Nikola Štulić (3 goals), with creative support from Antonino Gallo (4 assists), Lameck Banda (3 assists), M. Berisha (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with F. Marchwiński unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Sassuolo 4-3-3 / Lecce 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Sassuolo 6, Lecce 2
Stats
Sassuolo Sassuolo
Lecce Lecce
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
1
2 Corner Kicks 8
7 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 2
74% Ball Possession 26%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Goal 6
6 Shots off Goal 4
3 Blocked Shots 1
12 Shots insidebox 9
3 Shots outsidebox 2
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
634 Total passes 208
547 Passes accurate 141
2.02 expected_goals 0.86
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Sassuolo
Formation
Lecce
S. Turati
S. Turati
W. Coulibaly
W. Coulibaly
Pedro Felipe
🎯
Pedro Felipe
T. Muharemovic
T. Muharemovic
U. Garcia
🎯
U. Garcia
K. Thorstvedt
K. Thorstvedt
N. Matic
N. Matic
I. Kone
I. Kone
D. Berardi
D. Berardi
M. Nzola
M. Nzola
A. Lauriente
A. Lauriente
W. Falcone
W. Falcone
D. Veiga
D. Veiga
J. Siebert
J. Siebert
Tiago Gabriel
Tiago Gabriel
A. Gallo
A. Gallo
Y. Ramadani
Y. Ramadani
O. Ngom
O. Ngom
S. Pierotti
S. Pierotti
L. Coulibaly
L. Coulibaly
L. Banda
🎯
L. Banda
W. Cheddira
⚽ 2
W. Cheddira
Sassuolo 4-3-3
Starting XI
13
S. Turati
G
25
W. Coulibaly
D
66
Pedro Felipe
🎯 20'
D
80
T. Muharemovic
🟨 77'
D
23
U. Garcia
🎯 82'
D
42
K. Thorstvedt
M
18
N. Matic
↓ 63'
M
90
I. Kone
↓ 72'
M
10
D. Berardi
↓ 72'
F
8
M. Nzola
↓ 63'
F
45
A. Lauriente
⚽ 20' ↓ 88'
F
Substitutes
49
A. Muric
G
12
G. Satalino
G
16
G. Zacchi
G
99
A. Pinamonti
⚽ 82' ↑ 63'
F
24
L. Moro
F
20
A. Fadera
F
7
C. Volpato
↑ 72'
M
35
L. Lipani
↑ 63'
M
50
D. Bakola
↑ 72'
M
3
J. Doig
D
44
E. Iannoni
M
33
C. Frangella
↑ 88'
M
31
T. Macchioni
D
Lecce 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
30
W. Falcone
G
17
D. Veiga
↓ 85' 🟨 81'
D
5
J. Siebert
D
44
Tiago Gabriel
🟨 85'
D
25
A. Gallo
🟨 90+1'
D
20
Y. Ramadani
↓ 85' 🟨 54'
M
79
O. Ngom
M
50
S. Pierotti
↓ 79'
M
29
L. Coulibaly
M
19
L. Banda
🎯 25' ↓ 63'
M
99
W. Cheddira
⚽ 14' ⚽ 25' ↓ 80'
F
Substitutes
1
C. Fruchtl
G
32
J. Samooja
G
14
T. J. Helgason
M
36
F. Marchwinski
M
16
O. Gandelman
🎯 90' ↑ 79'
M
6
A. Sala
M
8
S. Fofana
M
28
O. Gorter
M
22
F. Camarda
↑ 80'
F
3
C. Ndaba
D
11
K. Ndri
↑ 85'
F
18
G. Jean
↑ 63'
D
9
N. Stulic
⚽ 90' ↑ 85'
F
4
K. Gaspar
D
13
M. Perez
D
Last matches: Sassuolo
22.07.26
Fri
Sassuolo
Padova
4
1
W
24.05.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Parma
0
1
L
08.05.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Torino
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Sassuolo
AC Milan
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
0
0
D
17.04.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Como
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Genoa
1
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Cagliari
2
1
W
21.03.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Juventus
1
1
D
15.03.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Bologna
0
1
L
09.03.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Lazio
1
2
L
01.03.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Atalanta
2
1
W
20.02.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Hellas Verona
3
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Udinese
2
1
W
08.02.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Inter
0
5
L
31.01.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Pisa
3
1
W
25.01.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Cremonese
1
0
W
17.01.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Napoli
0
1
L
10.01.26
Ser
Sassuolo
AS Roma
0
2
L
06.01.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Juventus
0
3
L
Last matches: Lecce
22.07.26
Fri
Lecce
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0
1
L
19.07.26
Fri
Lecce
Szombathelyi Haladas
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Lecce
Genoa
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Lecce
Juventus
0
1
L
01.05.26
Ser
Lecce
Pisa
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Lecce
Hellas Verona
0
0
D
20.04.26
Ser
Lecce
Fiorentina
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Lecce
Bologna
0
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
Lecce
Atalanta
0
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Lecce
AS Roma
0
1
L
14.03.26
Ser
Lecce
Napoli
1
2
L
08.03.26
Ser
Lecce
Cremonese
2
1
W
28.02.26
Ser
Lecce
Como
1
3
L
21.02.26
Ser
Lecce
Inter
0
2
L
16.02.26
Ser
Lecce
Cagliari
2
0
W
08.02.26
Ser
Lecce
Udinese
2
1
W
01.02.26
Ser
Lecce
Torino
0
1
L
24.01.26
Ser
Lecce
Lazio
0
0
D
18.01.26
Ser
Lecce
AC Milan
0
1
L
14.01.26
Ser
Lecce
Inter
0
1
L
Last matches: Sassuolo
22.07.26
Fri
Sassuolo
Padova
4
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Sassuolo
AC Milan
2
0
W
17.04.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Como
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Cagliari
2
1
W
15.03.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Bologna
0
1
L
01.03.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Atalanta
2
1
W
20.02.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Hellas Verona
3
0
W
08.02.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Inter
0
5
L
25.01.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Cremonese
1
0
W
06.01.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Juventus
0
3
L
03.01.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Parma
1
1
D
21.12.25
Ser
Sassuolo
Torino
0
1
L
06.12.25
Ser
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
3
1
W
24.11.25
Ser
Sassuolo
Pisa
2
2
D
03.11.25
Ser
Sassuolo
Genoa
1
2
L
26.10.25
Ser
Sassuolo
AS Roma
0
1
L
28.09.25
Ser
Sassuolo
Udinese
3
1
W
14.09.25
Ser
Sassuolo
Lazio
1
0
W
23.08.25
Ser
Sassuolo
Napoli
0
2
L
15.08.25
Cop
Sassuolo
Catanzaro
1
0
W
Last matches: Lecce
19.07.26
Fri
Lecce
Szombathelyi Haladas
1
0
W
01.05.26
Ser
Lecce
Pisa
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Lecce
Hellas Verona
0
0
D
12.04.26
Ser
Lecce
Bologna
0
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Lecce
AS Roma
0
1
L
14.03.26
Ser
Lecce
Napoli
1
2
L
28.02.26
Ser
Lecce
Como
1
3
L
16.02.26
Ser
Lecce
Cagliari
2
0
W
01.02.26
Ser
Lecce
Torino
0
1
L
18.01.26
Ser
Lecce
AC Milan
0
1
L
14.01.26
Ser
Lecce
Inter
0
1
L
03.01.26
Ser
Lecce
Juventus
1
1
D
07.12.25
Ser
Lecce
Cremonese
0
2
L
23.11.25
Ser
Lecce
Lazio
0
2
L
02.11.25
Ser
Lecce
Fiorentina
1
0
W
25.10.25
Ser
Lecce
Udinese
2
3
L
04.10.25
Ser
Lecce
Parma
1
0
W
23.09.25
Cop
Lecce
AC Milan
0
3
L
14.09.25
Ser
Lecce
Atalanta
1
4
L
23.08.25
Ser
Lecce
Genoa
0
0
D

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17
Lecce Away
38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Sassuolo 6 missing
-
F. Cande
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
E. Pieragnolo
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT
-
F. Romagna
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
S. Walukiewicz
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
D. Boloca
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
A. Vranckx
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
Lecce 2 missing
-
M. Berisha
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
R. Sottil
Missing Fixture Back Injury
OUT