ITALY › SERIE A
17.05.2026 18:45
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
Referee: F. La Penna
Sassuolo
Match Timeline
Lecce
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
14'
W. Cheddira
Lecce
⚽
20'
A. Lauriente · Assist: Pedro Felipe
Sassuolo
⚽
25'
W. Cheddira · Assist: L. Banda
Lecce
🟨
54'
Ylber Ramadani
Lecce
🔄
63'
M. Nzola ↔ A. Pinamonti
Sassuolo
🔄
63'
N. Matic ↔ L. Lipani
Sassuolo
🔄
63'
L. Banda ↔ G. Jean
Lecce
🔄
72'
D. Berardi ↔ C. Volpato
Sassuolo
🔄
72'
I. Kone ↔ D. Bakola
Sassuolo
🟨
77'
Tarik Muharemović
Sassuolo
🔄
79'
S. Pierotti ↔ O. Gandelman
Lecce
🔄
80'
W. Cheddira ↔ F. Camarda
Lecce
🟨
81'
Danilo Veiga
Lecce
⚽
82'
A. Pinamonti · Assist: U. Garcia
Sassuolo
🟨
85'
Tiago Gabriel
Lecce
🔄
85'
D. Veiga ↔ K. Ndri
Lecce
🔄
85'
Y. Ramadani ↔ N. Stulic
Lecce
🔄
88'
A. Lauriente ↔ C. Frangella
Sassuolo
🟨
90+1'
Antonino Gallo
Lecce
⚽
90'
N. Stulic · Assist: O. Gandelman
Lecce

Sassuolo vs Lecce Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sassuolo Win 82.9%
Draw 0%
Lecce Win 17.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sassuolo1.24
Lecce0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sassuolo Sassuolo
WWDLW
45 GF / 49 GA
Lecce Lecce
WLDWL
26 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
0.68
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.34
19
BTTS Yes
13
21
Over 2.5
14
3.76
Shots on Goal
2.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sassuolo Sassuolo 38 matches
Lecce Lecce 38 matches
Sassuolo Statistic Lecce
15 Wins 9
7 Draws 8
16 Losses 21
45 Goals For 26
49 Goals Against 51
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 0.68
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.34
19 BTTS Yes 13
28 Over 1.5 24
21 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 4
9 Clean Sheets 10
12 Failed To Score 20
3.76 Shots On Goal 2.39
10.87 Total Shots 9.53
4.03 Corners 4.18
44.9% Ball Possession 41.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sassuolo expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Lecce in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lecce having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Lecce.

Sassuolo Analysis

Sassuolo sit 11 with 49 points after 36 league matches. Their overall return of 14 wins, 7 draws, and 15 losses with goals at 44:46 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Pinamonti (8 goals), Domenico Berardi (8 goals), A. Lauriente (6 goals), with creative support from A. Lauriente (9 assists), Domenico Berardi (4 assists), Kristian Thorstvedt (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lecce Analysis

With 32 points from 36 games and a place of 17, Lecce still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 8 draws, and 20 defeats, and the 24:48 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Lameck Banda (4 goals), Lassana Coulibaly (3 goals), Nikola Štulić (3 goals), with creative support from Antonino Gallo (4 assists), Lameck Banda (3 assists), M. Berisha (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with F. Marchwiński unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Sassuolo won 4 times, Lecce won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:11 from Sassuolo's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Sassuolo 4-3-3 / Lecce 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Sassuolo 6, Lecce 2
H2H summary: Sassuolo wins 4, draws 3, Lecce wins 2

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17
Lecce Away
38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B