BRAZIL SERIE A
23.05.2026 20:00
Morumbi
Referee: Lucas Casagrande
Sao Paulo
Match Timeline
Botafogo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
Luciano
Sao Paulo
🟨
27'
Luciano
Sao Paulo
🟨
27'
Gabriel Justino
Botafogo
🔄
30'
Luciano ↔ Pedro Ferreira
Sao Paulo
🔄
44'
Sabino ↔ Luis Osorio
Sao Paulo
🔄
46'
L. M. Villalba Jaume ↔ K. Barria
Botafogo
🟨
61'
Álvaro Montoro
Botafogo
🔄
65'
Kauan Toledo ↔ J. Barrera
Botafogo
🔄
65'
A. Montoro ↔ Edenilson
Botafogo
🔄
75'
Ferreira ↔ G. Tapia
Sao Paulo
🔄
75'
↔ Djhordney
Sao Paulo
🔄
76'
Huguinho ↔ J. Correa
Botafogo
🟨
80'
Wendell
Sao Paulo
🟨
84'
Joaquín Correa
Botafogo
🟨
85'
Rafael
Sao Paulo
🔄
87'
G. Justino ↔ C. Ramos
Botafogo
🟨
89'
Gonzalo Tapia
Sao Paulo
🟨
90+2'
Chris Ramos
Botafogo
90'
J. Barrera
Botafogo

Sao Paulo vs Botafogo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sao Paulo Win 47.8%
Draw 12.7%
Botafogo Win 39.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sao Paulo1.48
Botafogo1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WWDLW
22 GF / 18 GA
Botafogo Botafogo
WLDWL
32 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.63
9
BTTS Yes
13
7
Over 2.5
13
4.13
Shots on Goal
4.74

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 16 matches
Botafogo Botafogo 19 matches
Sao Paulo Statistic Botafogo
7 Wins 7
3 Draws 4
6 Losses 8
22 Goals For 32
18 Goals Against 31
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.63
9 BTTS Yes 13
12 Over 1.5 16
7 Over 2.5 13
3 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 4
4.13 Shots On Goal 4.74
11.88 Total Shots 12.53
6.69 Corners 3.79
52.6% Ball Possession 50.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Botafogo. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Sao Paulo have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Sao Paulo Analysis

With 24 points from 16 games and a place of 4, Sao Paulo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 22:18, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Jonathan Calleri (6 goals), Luciano (5 goals), Ferreira (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), D. Bobadilla (2 assists), Marcos Antonio (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Botafogo Analysis

Botafogo sit 9 with 21 points after 15 league matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 29:28 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Danilo (7 goals), Matheus Martins (4 goals), with creative support from A. Montoro (3 assists), Danilo (2 assists), Alex Telles (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sao Paulo won 4 times, Botafogo won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:14 from Sao Paulo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.3%)
Predicted formations: Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1 / Botafogo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Sao Paulo 9, Botafogo 9
H2H summary: Sao Paulo wins 4, draws 6, Botafogo wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
5 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 27 8 8 11 28:29 -1 32
L L L L L
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 27 5 8 14 31:45 -14 23
L L L L D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B