BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Primeiro de Maio
Referee: Savio Pereira Sampaio, Brazil
São Bernardo
Match Timeline
Ceara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
-5'
Lucas Rian
São Bernardo
23'
Helder Maciel · Assist: Mario Sergio
São Bernardo
🟨
31'
Júlio César
Ceara
🔄
46'
Lucas Rian ↔ Hugo Sanches
São Bernardo
🔄
46'
D. Davi ↔ Echapora
São Bernardo
🔄
46'
Thalisson ↔ Giulio
Ceara
🔄
46'
R. Lopez ↔ Lucca
Ceara
47'
M. N. Ferreira Berrondo · Assist: Giulio
Ceara
🟨
55'
Éder
Ceara
🔄
56'
Foguinho ↔ Hyoran
São Bernardo
🔄
56'
Rodrigo Ferreira ↔ Pedrinho
São Bernardo
59'
Hugo Sanches
São Bernardo
62'
Vina · Assist: M. N. Ferreira Berrondo
Ceara
🔄
66'
Giovanni Pavani ↔ Richardson
Ceara
🟨
68'
Felipe Garcia
São Bernardo
74'
Joao Gabriel · Assist: Giulio
Ceara
81'
Pedrinho · Assist: Mario Sergio
São Bernardo
🔄
84'
Lucas Lima ↔ Marcao Silva
São Bernardo
🔄
85'
Vina ↔ Melk
Ceara
🔄
89'
M. N. Ferreira Berrondo ↔ Enzo Lodovico
Ceara
VAR
90+10'
Lucas Rian
São Bernardo
90'
Enzo Lodovico
Ceara

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 27.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.2%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
27.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
São Bernardo Win 56.2%
Draw 28.4%
Ceara Win 15.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
São Bernardo1.26
Ceara0.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
São Bernardo São Bernardo
WWDLW
25 GF / 19 GA
Ceara Ceara
WLDWL
16 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
0.84
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
11
BTTS Yes
9
9
Over 2.5
5
4.32
Shots on Goal
3.84

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

São Bernardo São Bernardo 19 matches
Ceara Ceara 19 matches
São Bernardo Statistic Ceara
7 Wins 4
6 Draws 7
6 Losses 8
25 Goals For 16
19 Goals Against 22
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 0.84
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
11 BTTS Yes 9
13 Over 1.5 13
9 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 1
5 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 8
4.32 Shots On Goal 3.84
11.05 Total Shots 13.37
3.95 Corners 5.95
48.2% Ball Possession 50.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by São Bernardo's more proactive style and Ceara's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ceara. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. São Bernardo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 27 points compared to Ceara in 17 on 19, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with São Bernardo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Ceara in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ceara having the stronger overall control.

São Bernardo Analysis

São Bernardo approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 27 points from 18 matches. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 24:17 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Rodrigo Ferreira (3 goals), Dudu Miraíma (2 goals), Pedro Vitor (2 goals), with creative support from Dudu Miraíma (3 assists), Pedro Vitor (2 assists), Echaporã (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Ceara Analysis

With 19 points from 18 games and a place of 17, Ceara still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 16:21 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Melk (4 goals), Júlio César (2 goals), Matheus Araújo (2 goals), with creative support from Melk (3 assists), Júlio César (1 assists), Fernandinho (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, São Bernardo won 0 times, Ceara won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:5 from São Bernardo's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (84.6%)
Predicted formations: São Bernardo 4-2-3-1 / Ceara 4-3-3
H2H summary: São Bernardo wins 0, draws 2, Ceara wins 1
Stats
São Bernardo São Bernardo
Ceara Ceara
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
8
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
8
Blocked Shots
3
10 Corner Kicks 3
13 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 1
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Goal 8
5 Shots off Goal 6
8 Blocked Shots 3
11 Shots insidebox 11
7 Shots outsidebox 6
4 Goalkeeper Saves 2
407 Total passes 357
345 Passes accurate 287
1.45 expected_goals 0.96
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

São Bernardo
Formation
Ceara
Alex Alves
Alex Alves
Rodrigo Ferreira
Rodrigo Ferreira
Helder Maciel
Helder Maciel
Jemerson
Jemerson
Mario Sergio
🎯
Mario Sergio
Lucas Lima
Lucas Lima
Foguinho
Foguinho
Dudu Miraima
Dudu Miraima
Lucas Rian
Lucas Rian
Felipe Garcia
Felipe Garcia
D. Davi
D. Davi
Richard
Richard
Julio Cesar
Julio Cesar
Thalisson
Thalisson
Eder
Eder
Savio
Savio
Bryan Borges
Bryan Borges
Giovanni Pavani
Giovanni Pavani
Joao Gabriel
Joao Gabriel
M. N. Ferreira Berrondo
🎯
M. N. Ferreira Berrondo
Vina
Vina
R. Lopez
R. Lopez
São Bernardo 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Alex Alves
G
2
Rodrigo Ferreira
↓ 56'
D
3
Helder Maciel
⚽ 23'
D
35
Jemerson
D
33
Mario Sergio
🎯 23' 🎯 81'
D
14
Lucas Lima
↓ 84'
M
8
Foguinho
↓ 56'
M
26
Dudu Miraima
M
7
Lucas Rian
↓ 46' 🟥 -5'
F
9
Felipe Garcia
🟨 68'
F
37
D. Davi
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
12
Junior Oliveira
G
6
Para
D
42
Hyoran
↑ 56'
M
77
Marcao Silva
↑ 84'
M
97
Augusto
D
10
Fabricio Daniel
F
90
Luizao
70
Lucas Reis
F
89
Daniel Amorim
F
29
Pedrinho
⚽ 81' ↑ 56'
F
21
Hugo Sanches
⚽ 59' ↑ 46'
D
27
Echapora
↑ 46'
F
Ceara 4-4-1-1
Starting XI
1
Richard
G
18
Julio Cesar
🟨 31'
D
3
Thalisson
↓ 46'
D
33
Eder
🟨 55'
D
6
Savio
D
31
Bryan Borges
M
21
Giovanni Pavani
↓ 66'
M
81
Joao Gabriel
⚽ 74'
M
20
M. N. Ferreira Berrondo
⚽ 47' 🎯 62' ↓ 89'
M
29
Vina
⚽ 62' ↓ 85'
F
7
R. Lopez
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
22
Matheus Nogueira
G
12
Sanchez
D
10
Juan Alano
F
35
Giulio
🎯 47' 🎯 74' ↑ 46'
F
40
Melk
↑ 85'
M
11
Lucas Mugni
M
26
Richardson
↑ 66'
M
8
Matheus Araujo
M
99
Lucca
↑ 46'
F
71
Gabriel Rocha
M
88
Caio
M
60
Enzo Lodovico
⚽ 90' ↑ 89'
F
Last matches: São Bernardo
23.08.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Nautico Recife
1
1
D
19.08.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Fortaleza EC
1
1
D
14.08.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
07.08.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Operario-PR
3
1
W
23.07.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Athletic Club
1
2
L
17.07.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Avai
1
1
D
12.07.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Cuiaba
2
2
D
06.07.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Vila Nova
1
2
L
27.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Criciuma
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Juventude
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Sport Recife
0
0
D
07.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
CRB
3
2
W
31.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Novorizontino
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Atletico Goianiense
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
America Mineiro
1
1
D
12.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Londrina
3
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Ponte Preta
3
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Goias
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Nautico Recife
3
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
Last matches: Ceara
22.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
2
1
W
19.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
15.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
1
3
L
07.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
2
0
W
22.07.26
Ser
Ceara
CRB
0
1
L
17.07.26
Ser
Ceara
America Mineiro
1
1
D
13.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Athletic Club
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Goias
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Juventude
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
16.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Criciuma
1
1
D
10.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Operario-PR
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Novorizontino
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Sport Recife
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Vila Nova
3
3
D
19.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
H2H: São Bernardo vs Ceara
26.07.26
H2H
São Bernardo
Ceara
3
4
L
21.03.26
H2H
Ceara
São Bernardo
1
1
D
17.03.26
H2H
São Bernardo
Ceara
0
0
D
Last matches: São Bernardo
23.08.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Nautico Recife
1
1
D
14.08.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
17.07.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Avai
1
1
D
12.07.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Cuiaba
2
2
D
21.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Juventude
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Sport Recife
0
0
D
31.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Novorizontino
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
America Mineiro
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Ponte Preta
3
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Goias
1
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
02.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Operario-PR
1
2
L
H2H at home: São Bernardo
26.07.26
H2H
São Bernardo
Ceara
3
4
L
17.03.26
H2H
São Bernardo
Ceara
0
0
D
Last matches: Ceara
19.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
17.07.26
Ser
Ceara
America Mineiro
1
1
D
04.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Goias
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Juventude
0
2
L
16.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Criciuma
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Novorizontino
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Sport Recife
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
2
0
W
02.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
H2H away: Ceara
26.07.26
H2H
São Bernardo
Ceara
3
4
W
17.03.26
H2H
São Bernardo
Ceara
0
0
D

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 24 12 8 4 25:17 8 44
L D W L D
3 24 12 5 7 35:25 10 41
D W W L L
4 24 11 7 6 39:21 18 40
W W D L W
5 24 11 7 6 27:21 6 40
W D D D W
6 24 9 11 4 32:22 10 38
W L W W D
7 24 10 6 8 35:34 1 36
L W D W W
8 24 10 6 8 30:31 -1 36
D L L L L
9 24 9 9 6 27:23 4 36
W D L D W
10 24 8 10 6 25:25 0 34
L L W W D
11 24 9 6 9 23:29 -6 33
D L L W L
12 24 7 12 5 21:18 3 33
D W W D D
13 24 8 8 8 33:27 6 32
D D L W L
14 24 8 7 9 28:26 2 31
L D W W L
15 24 8 7 9 28:27 1 31
D W D D D
16 24 8 5 11 27:30 -3 29
W W W L L
17
Ceara Away
24 7 7 10 25:30 -5 28
W L L W W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 24 2 5 17 16:42 -26 11
L L L L W
20 24 2 4 18 16:50 -34 10
L L D L D
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