BRAZIL SERIE A
13.09.2026 00:00
Estádio Urbano Caldeira
Referee: Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil
Santos
Match Timeline
Cruzeiro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
28'
B. Rollheiser
Santos
32'
Gabriel Bontempo
Santos
🟨
45+5'
Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro
🔄
46'
L. Romero ↔ Wesley
Cruzeiro
🔄
61'
Gustavo Henrique ↔ C. Oliva
Santos
🟨
65'
Everton Cebolinha
Santos
🔄
74'
Everton ↔ Arthur Melo
Santos
🔄
74'
B. Rollheiser ↔ Lima
Santos
🔄
74'
Matheus Henrique ↔ Lucas Silva
Cruzeiro
🔄
75'
Gerson ↔ Ze Lucas
Cruzeiro
🔄
75'
Fagner ↔ J. Costa
Cruzeiro
🟨
78'
Rony
Santos
🔄
79'
K. Arroyo ↔ L. Rodriguez
Cruzeiro
🔄
81'
Gabriel Bontempo ↔ Miguelito
Santos
🔄
81'
Rony ↔ Thaciano
Santos
🟨
82'
Gabriel Brazão
Santos
🟨
90+4'
Fabrício Bruno
Cruzeiro
90'
Matheus Pereira · Assist: L. Rodriguez
Cruzeiro

Santos vs Cruzeiro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49.4%
Odds 2.57
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.89
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49.4%
2.57
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.89
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.80
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Santos Win 37.1%
Draw 13.5%
Cruzeiro Win 49.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santos1.44
Cruzeiro1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santos Santos
WWDLW
40 GF / 38 GA
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WLDWL
51 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
17
BTTS Yes
23
16
Over 2.5
21
3.88
Shots on Goal
4.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santos Santos 26 matches
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 36 matches
Santos Statistic Cruzeiro
9 Wins 16
8 Draws 9
9 Losses 11
40 Goals For 51
38 Goals Against 46
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
17 BTTS Yes 23
23 Over 1.5 29
16 Over 2.5 21
9 Over 3.5 10
7 Clean Sheets 10
3 Failed To Score 5
3.88 Shots On Goal 4.56
12.88 Total Shots 14.15
5.28 Corners 4.82
50.1% Ball Possession 54.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Cruzeiro look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Cruzeiro. Cruzeiro carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 39 points while Santos sit 14 on 29, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Santos Analysis

Santos approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 29 points from 24 matches. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 8 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 34:36 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Gabriel Barbosa (8 goals), Neymar (6 goals), Álvaro Barreal (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (2 assists), Neymar (2 assists), Christian Oliva (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cruzeiro Analysis

So far, Cruzeiro have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 39 points from 25 matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 35:36 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by Kaio Jorge (6 goals), Matheus Pereira (5 goals), Christian (4 goals), with creative support from Fagner (4 assists), Matheus Pereira (3 assists), Christian (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Santos won 5 times, Cruzeiro won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:18 from Santos's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.5%)
Predicted formations: Santos 4-2-3-1 / Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Santos 6, Cruzeiro 4
H2H summary: Santos wins 5, draws 3, Cruzeiro wins 7

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 27 11 7 9 36:32 4 40
D W L W D
8 27 10 8 9 41:40 1 38
W W W W D
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 27 10 6 11 33:31 2 36
L D L L W
11 27 10 6 11 32:30 2 36
W L W W L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B