BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Neo Química Arena
Referee: Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva, Brazil
Santos
Match Timeline
Coritiba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Neymar
Santos
6'
Breno Lopes · Assist: Josue
Coritiba
🟨
16'
Lucas Taverna
Coritiba
20'
Breno Lopes · Assist: Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
🟨
37'
Gonzalo Escobar
Santos
39'
Josue
Coritiba
🔄
40'
Mayke ↔ C. Oliva
Santos
🔄
46'
Moises ↔ Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
🔄
46'
Gustavo Henrique ↔ Luan Peres
Santos
🔄
46'
Willian Arao ↔ A. Barreal
Santos
🔄
56'
↔ Joao Ananias
Santos
🔄
60'
J. Lavega ↔ Willian Oliveira
Coritiba
🔄
60'
Lucas Taverna ↔ Wallisson
Coritiba
🔄
65'
Neymar ↔ J. Robinho
Santos
🟥
73'
Álvaro Barreal
Santos
🔄
83'
Pedro Rocha ↔ Renato Marques
Coritiba
🟨
84'
Josué
Coritiba
🔄
84'
Thiago Santos ↔ Vini Paulista
Coritiba
🟨
90+5'
João Paulo Ananias
Santos
🟨
90+3'
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
🔄
90+2'
Josue ↔ Gustavo
Coritiba
🔄
90+5'
Breno Lopes ↔ D. Alves
Coritiba

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
77.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Santos Win 64.7%
Draw 0%
Coritiba Win 35.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santos1.35
Coritiba1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santos Santos
WWDLW
21 GF / 22 GA
Coritiba Coritiba
WLDWL
18 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
11
BTTS Yes
7
8
Over 2.5
5
3.27
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santos Santos 15 matches
Coritiba Coritiba 15 matches
Santos Statistic Coritiba
4 Wins 5
6 Draws 5
5 Losses 5
21 Goals For 18
22 Goals Against 19
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
11 BTTS Yes 7
13 Over 1.5 10
8 Over 2.5 5
5 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 4
3.27 Shots On Goal 3
12.07 Total Shots 10.07
5.4 Corners 3.2
47.5% Ball Possession 38.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Coritiba. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Santos Analysis

With 18 points from 15 games and a place of 15, Santos still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats with a 21:22 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Gabriel Barbosa (4 goals), Neymar (4 goals), Benjamín Rollheiser (3 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (2 assists), Neymar (2 assists), Moises (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Coritiba Analysis

Coritiba sit 9 with 20 points after 15 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 18:19 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Breno Lopes (5 goals), J. Lavega (4 goals), Pedro Rocha (4 goals), with creative support from Josué (5 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Tinga (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Santos won 10 times, Coritiba won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:8 from Santos's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Santos 4-2-3-1 / Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Santos 3, Coritiba 7
H2H summary: Santos wins 10, draws 3, Coritiba wins 2
Stats
Santos Santos
Coritiba Coritiba
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
2
3 Corner Kicks 3
13 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 0
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Goal 5
6 Shots off Goal 2
4 Blocked Shots 2
8 Shots insidebox 7
5 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
440 Total passes 262
375 Passes accurate 200
1.73 expected_goals 2.13
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Santos
Formation
Coritiba
Gabriel Brazao
Gabriel Brazao
Mayke
Mayke
A. Frias
A. Frias
Lucas Verissimo
Lucas Verissimo
G. Escobar
G. Escobar
Gustavo Henrique
Gustavo Henrique
Willian Arao
Willian Arao
Gabriel Bontempo
Gabriel Bontempo
B. Rollheiser
B. Rollheiser
Moises
Moises
Neymar
Neymar
Pedro Rangel
Pedro Rangel
Lucas Taverna
Lucas Taverna
Tiago Coser
Tiago Coser
Rodrigo Moledo
Rodrigo Moledo
Bruno Melo
Bruno Melo
Thiago Santos
Thiago Santos
S. Gomez
S. Gomez
J. Lavega
J. Lavega
Josue
🎯
Josue
Breno Lopes
⚽ 2
Breno Lopes
Pedro Rocha
🎯
Pedro Rocha
Santos 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
77
Gabriel Brazao
G
12
Mayke
↓ 40'
D
98
A. Frias
D
4
Lucas Verissimo
D
31
G. Escobar
🟨 37'
D
48
Gustavo Henrique
↓ 46'
M
15
Willian Arao
↓ 46'
M
49
Gabriel Bontempo
M
32
B. Rollheiser
M
21
Moises
↓ 46'
M
10
Neymar
↓ 65' 🟨 -5'
F
Substitutes
1
Diogenes
G
67
Rodrigo Falcao
9
Gabriel Barbosa
↑ 46' 🟨 90+3'
F
19
L. Diaz
F
30
Miguelito
M
26
Joao Ananias
↑ 56' 🟨 90+5'
D
14
Luan Peres
↑ 46'
D
11
Rony
F
28
C. Oliva
↑ 40'
M
22
A. Barreal
↑ 46' 🟥 73'
M
7
J. Robinho
↑ 65'
F
81
S. Pierri
M
Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
Pedro Rangel
G
86
Lucas Taverna
↓ 60' 🟨 16'
D
23
Tiago Coser
D
4
Rodrigo Moledo
D
26
Bruno Melo
D
21
Thiago Santos
↓ 84'
M
19
S. Gomez
M
7
J. Lavega
↓ 60'
M
10
Josue
⚽ 39' 🎯 6' ↓ 90+2' 🟨 84'
M
77
Breno Lopes
⚽ 6' ⚽ 20' ↓ 90+5'
M
32
Pedro Rocha
🎯 20' ↓ 83'
F
Substitutes
13
Keiller
G
67
Benassi
G
29
Willian Oliveira
↑ 60'
M
8
Wallisson
↑ 60'
M
36
Vini Paulista
↑ 84'
F
88
Fernando Sobral
M
28
Fabinho
F
78
Renato Marques
↑ 83'
F
39
Gustavo
↑ 90+2'
M
33
D. Alves
↑ 90+5'
F
Last matches: Santos
16.08.26
Ser
Santos
Vasco DA Gama
3
0
W
09.08.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
25.07.26
Ser
Santos
Chapecoense-sc
2
2
D
16.07.26
Ser
Santos
Botafogo
1
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Santos
União São João
3
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Santos
Vitoria
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Santos
Gremio
2
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Santos
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Santos
Palmeiras
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Santos
Bahia
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Santos
Fluminense
2
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Santos
Flamengo
1
3
L
02.04.26
Ser
Santos
Remo
2
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Santos
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
19.03.26
Ser
Santos
Internacional
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Santos
Corinthians
1
1
D
11.03.26
Ser
Santos
Mirassol
2
2
D
26.02.26
Ser
Santos
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
12.02.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
Last matches: Coritiba
16.08.26
Ser
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
08.08.26
Ser
Coritiba
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
31.07.26
Ser
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
0
1
L
26.07.26
Ser
Coritiba
RB Bragantino
0
0
D
22.07.26
Ser
Coritiba
Palmeiras
1
3
L
30.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Flamengo
0
3
L
25.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Bahia
3
2
W
09.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Internacional
2
2
D
02.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vitoria
1
4
L
26.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Gremio
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Botafogo
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Fluminense
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Mirassol
1
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Remo
1
0
W
12.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Corinthians
2
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
11.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Chapecoense-sc
3
3
D
H2H: Santos vs Coritiba
17.05.26
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
0
3
L
13.05.26
H2H
Coritiba
Santos
0
2
W
22.04.26
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
0
0
D
12.11.24
H2H
Coritiba
Santos
0
2
W
22.07.24
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
4
0
W
27.10.23
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
2
1
W
10.06.23
H2H
Coritiba
Santos
0
0
D
08.08.22
H2H
Coritiba
Santos
1
2
W
13.05.22
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
3
0
W
20.04.22
H2H
Coritiba
Santos
1
0
L
17.04.22
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
2
1
W
13.02.21
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
2
0
W
18.10.20
H2H
Coritiba
Santos
1
2
W
20.08.17
H2H
Coritiba
Santos
0
0
D
20.05.17
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
1
0
W
Last matches: Santos
09.08.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
25.07.26
Ser
Santos
Chapecoense-sc
2
2
D
04.07.26
Fri
Santos
União São João
3
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Santos
Vitoria
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Santos
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Santos
Fluminense
2
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
02.04.26
Ser
Santos
Remo
2
0
W
19.03.26
Ser
Santos
Internacional
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Santos
Corinthians
1
1
D
26.02.26
Ser
Santos
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
04.02.26
Ser
Santos
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
H2H at home: Santos
17.05.26
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
0
3
L
22.04.26
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
0
0
D
22.07.24
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
4
0
W
27.10.23
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
2
1
W
13.05.22
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
3
0
W
17.04.22
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
2
1
W
13.02.21
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
2
0
W
20.05.17
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
1
0
W
Last matches: Coritiba
16.08.26
Ser
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
26.07.26
Ser
Coritiba
RB Bragantino
0
0
D
30.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Flamengo
0
3
L
02.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vitoria
1
4
L
26.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Gremio
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Botafogo
2
2
D
22.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Mirassol
1
0
W
12.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Corinthians
2
0
W
11.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Chapecoense-sc
3
3
D
06.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
H2H away: Coritiba
17.05.26
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
0
3
W
22.04.26
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
0
0
D
22.07.24
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
4
0
L
27.10.23
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
2
1
L
13.05.22
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
3
0
L
17.04.22
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
2
1
L
13.02.21
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
2
0
L
20.05.17
H2H
Santos
Coritiba
1
0
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 14 6 3 40:19 21 48
L D W L W
2 22 13 6 3 44:19 25 45
W W D D W
3 23 12 5 6 31:20 11 41
D W D W W
4 23 10 8 5 34:28 6 38
W D D D D
5 23 10 6 7 32:32 0 36
W W W L W
6 23 8 10 5 32:28 4 34
D D D D D
7 22 9 5 8 27:23 4 32
D L D D W
8 22 9 5 8 30:27 3 32
W D W D W
9 23 8 8 7 25:22 3 32
L W D D W
10 23 8 7 8 28:30 -2 31
D W L D L
11 22 8 6 8 35:34 1 30
L D W D W
12 23 8 5 10 23:33 -10 29
W L L L D
13 22 7 6 9 27:26 1 27
D L D L L
14 22 6 7 9 32:35 -3 25
W L D L W
15 22 6 7 9 24:30 -6 25
L W D L L
16 23 5 9 9 24:28 -4 24
D D D L L
17 22 6 5 11 25:35 -10 23
L L W D W
18 23 5 8 10 27:37 -10 23
D D L W L
19 22 5 7 10 23:34 -11 22
L D D L L
20 22 1 8 13 23:46 -23 11
D L D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Santos 3 missing
-
Vinicius Lira
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Thaciano
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Joao Schmidt
Questionable Injury
OUT
Coritiba 7 missing
-
Maicon
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Pedro Morisco
Missing Fixture Shoulder Injury
OUT
-
Rodrigo Rodrigues
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
Keno
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Fabinho
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Lucas Ronier
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Tinga
Questionable Injury
OUT