COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.7%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Santa Fe Win 61.7%
Draw 10.3%
Once Caldas Win 28%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santa Fe1.3
Once Caldas1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santa Fe Santa Fe
WWDLW
44 GF / 36 GA
Once Caldas Once Caldas
WLDWL
39 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.16
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
23
BTTS Yes
18
15
Over 2.5
11
4.57
Shots on Goal
5.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santa Fe Santa Fe 31 matches
Once Caldas Once Caldas 24 matches
Santa Fe Statistic Once Caldas
10 Wins 9
13 Draws 12
8 Losses 3
44 Goals For 39
36 Goals Against 27
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.16 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
23 BTTS Yes 18
26 Over 1.5 20
15 Over 2.5 11
7 Over 3.5 6
5 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 3
4.57 Shots On Goal 5.59
12.17 Total Shots 14.23
4.4 Corners 5.45
47% Ball Possession 53.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Santa Fe expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Once Caldas in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Once Caldas having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Once Caldas.

Santa Fe Analysis

Santa Fe arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 35 points after 23 matches. The record of 8 wins, 11 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 35:24 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Nahuel Bustos (1 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Once Caldas Analysis

So far, Once Caldas have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 34 points from 21 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 10 draws, and 3 losses, while the 33:25 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Santa Fe won 8 times, Once Caldas won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:15 from Santa Fe's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.7%)
Predicted formations: Santa Fe 4-3-3 / Once Caldas 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Santa Fe wins 8, draws 3, Once Caldas wins 4
Last matches: Santa Fe
26.07.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Águilas Doradas
1
2
L
28.05.26
CON
Santa Fe
Penarol
1
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Junior
0
0
D
20.05.26
CON
Santa Fe
Platense
2
1
W
17.05.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Junior
1
1
D
13.05.26
Pri
Santa Fe
America de Cali
4
0
W
10.05.26
Pri
Santa Fe
America de Cali
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Santa Fe
Corinthians
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Internacional de Bogota
3
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Santa Fe
Platense
1
2
L
23.04.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Deportivo Pasto
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Cucuta
5
0
W
16.04.26
CON
Santa Fe
Corinthians
0
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Millonarios
1
1
D
10.04.26
CON
Santa Fe
Penarol
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Deportes Tolima
2
2
D
01.04.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Llaneros
0
1
L
28.03.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Bucaramanga
2
1
W
23.03.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Independiente Medellin
2
1
W
19.03.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
Last matches: Once Caldas
27.07.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Cucuta
5
1
W
14.05.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Junior
2
2
D
10.05.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Junior
0
1
L
01.05.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Águilas Doradas
2
2
D
20.04.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Internacional de Bogota
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Deportivo Pereira
0
0
D
03.04.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
30.03.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Llaneros
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Millonarios
1
4
L
19.03.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Bucaramanga
1
1
D
13.03.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Deportivo Pasto
4
2
W
07.03.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Deportivo Cali
2
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Chico
3
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Fortaleza FC
4
2
W
15.02.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
1
2
L
12.02.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Junior
2
1
W
08.02.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
01.02.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Jaguares
1
1
D
30.01.26
Pri
Once Caldas
America de Cali
1
1
D
H2H: Santa Fe vs Once Caldas
26.01.26
H2H
Once Caldas
Santa Fe
1
1
D
02.09.25
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
1
2
L
16.06.25
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
1
0
W
05.06.25
H2H
Once Caldas
Santa Fe
1
2
W
16.03.25
H2H
Once Caldas
Santa Fe
0
1
W
09.11.24
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
2
1
W
24.05.24
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
1
0
W
19.05.24
H2H
Once Caldas
Santa Fe
0
0
D
17.04.24
H2H
Once Caldas
Santa Fe
0
1
W
08.11.23
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
0
1
L
18.05.23
H2H
Once Caldas
Santa Fe
3
1
L
30.10.22
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
2
1
W
14.05.22
H2H
Once Caldas
Santa Fe
2
2
D
16.11.21
H2H
Once Caldas
Santa Fe
2
1
L
07.07.21
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
3
1
W
Last matches: Santa Fe
20.05.26
CON
Santa Fe
Platense
2
1
W
17.05.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Junior
1
1
D
13.05.26
Pri
Santa Fe
America de Cali
4
0
W
07.05.26
CON
Santa Fe
Corinthians
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Internacional de Bogota
3
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Cucuta
5
0
W
10.04.26
CON
Santa Fe
Penarol
1
1
D
01.04.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Llaneros
0
1
L
23.03.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Independiente Medellin
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
26.02.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Atletico Nacional
1
2
L
22.02.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Junior
2
1
W
28.01.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Deportivo Pereira
2
2
D
19.01.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Águilas Doradas
1
1
D
09.01.26
Fri
Santa Fe
Deportivo Tachira FC
2
3
L
09.12.25
Pri
Santa Fe
Bucaramanga
0
0
D
26.11.25
Pri
Santa Fe
Deportes Tolima
1
2
L
22.11.25
Pri
Santa Fe
Fortaleza FC
3
0
W
14.11.25
Pri
Santa Fe
Alianza Valledupar
1
0
W
10.11.25
Pri
Santa Fe
Deportivo Cali
1
0
W
H2H at home: Santa Fe
02.09.25
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
1
2
L
16.06.25
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
1
0
W
09.11.24
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
2
1
W
24.05.24
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
1
0
W
08.11.23
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
0
1
L
30.10.22
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
2
1
W
07.07.21
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
3
1
W
Last matches: Once Caldas
14.05.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Junior
2
2
D
26.04.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Águilas Doradas
2
2
D
10.04.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Deportivo Pereira
0
0
D
30.03.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Llaneros
1
1
D
19.03.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Bucaramanga
1
1
D
07.03.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Deportivo Cali
2
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
1
2
L
08.02.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
30.01.26
Pri
Once Caldas
America de Cali
1
1
D
19.01.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Cucuta
2
1
W
14.01.26
Fri
Once Caldas
America de Cali
1
1
D
11.01.26
Fri
Once Caldas
Deportivo Cali
0
0
D
14.11.25
Pri
Once Caldas
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
30.10.25
Pri
Once Caldas
Millonarios
0
0
D
19.10.25
Pri
Once Caldas
Llaneros
0
2
L
07.10.25
Pri
Once Caldas
Internacional de Bogota
1
0
W
20.09.25
Pri
Once Caldas
America de Cali
1
2
L
10.09.25
Pri
Once Caldas
Bucaramanga
0
0
D
02.09.25
Pri
Once Caldas
Santa Fe
2
1
W
15.08.25
Pri
Once Caldas
Alianza Valledupar
0
0
D
H2H away: Once Caldas
02.09.25
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
1
2
W
16.06.25
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
1
0
L
09.11.24
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
2
1
L
24.05.24
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
1
0
L
08.11.23
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
0
1
W
30.10.22
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
2
1
L
07.07.21
H2H
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
3
1
L

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W L W W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L W W D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
L L L L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W L D W L
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W D L W D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
W L L W W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
L L D W D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
L L L L W
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D W L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
L D W L D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W L W W W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W W D L L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W L D L W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
W L D L D
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D W L L W
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L W D L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D D D L L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W L L W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L L D L W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L L W L D
Post season qualification