CHILE › PRIMERA B
17.05.2026 21:30
Estadio Carlos Dittborn
San Marcos de Arica
Match Timeline
Antofagasta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
35'
A. Galleguillos
San Marcos de Arica
🔄
46'
A. Galleguillos ↔ B. Sagredo
San Marcos de Arica
⚽
50'
J. Monreal
Antofagasta
⚽
65'
C. Melivilu Fuentes
San Marcos de Arica
🔄
66'
C. Bravo ↔ K. Campillay
Antofagasta
🔄
74'
A. Barrios ↔ G. Reyes
San Marcos de Arica
🔄
83'
N. Zedan ↔ A. Abalos
San Marcos de Arica
🔄
83'
M. Gallegos Panozzo ↔ D. Rojas
Antofagasta
🟨
85'
F. Hurtado Perez
Antofagasta
🔄
89'
C. Rencoret ↔ M. Iturra
San Marcos de Arica
🟨
90+4'
A. Abalos
San Marcos de Arica
🟨
90+4'
S. Leyton
Antofagasta
🔄
90+1'
B. Hurtado ↔ A. Ibacache
Antofagasta

San Marcos de Arica vs Antofagasta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
San Marcos de Arica Win 61.2%
Draw 11.4%
Antofagasta Win 27.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Marcos de Arica1.17
Antofagasta1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Marcos de Arica San Marcos de Arica
WWDLW
16 GF / 12 GA
Antofagasta Antofagasta
WLDWL
22 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1.69
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
6
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Marcos de Arica San Marcos de Arica 13 matches
Antofagasta Antofagasta 13 matches
San Marcos de Arica Statistic Antofagasta
5 Wins 7
7 Draws 3
1 Losses 3
16 Goals For 22
12 Goals Against 14
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
6 BTTS Yes 6
9 Over 1.5 11
5 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Antofagasta. San Marcos de Arica come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Antofagasta having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

San Marcos de Arica Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 20 points from 10 games, San Marcos de Arica bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 5 wins, 5 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 14:6, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by C. Melivilu Fuentes (8 goals), C. Guerra (2 goals), N. Donadell (2 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Antofagasta Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 20 points from 11 games, Antofagasta bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a 20:13 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on B. Hurtado (5 goals), J. Monreal (5 goals), M. Gallegos Panozzo (3 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, San Marcos de Arica won 2 times, Antofagasta won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:13 from San Marcos de Arica's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.43 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.6%)
Predicted formations: San Marcos de Arica 4-3-2-1 / Antofagasta -
H2H summary: San Marcos de Arica wins 2, draws 3, Antofagasta wins 2

Standings

Primera B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 12 8 4 40:25 15 44
L W W W D
2 24 11 9 4 42:27 15 42
D L W L W
3 24 11 8 5 38:29 9 41
W W W L W
4 25 11 7 7 41:38 3 40
W D D L W
5 25 10 8 7 42:26 16 38
L D L W W
6 25 10 8 7 36:33 3 38
D W W D W
7 25 9 9 7 31:23 8 36
W L W L L
8 25 10 6 9 32:32 0 36
D L D L W
9 25 10 4 11 26:31 -5 34
L L W L L
10 25 8 8 9 40:35 5 32
D W L W L
11 24 8 7 9 33:38 -5 31
D L L L W
12 25 6 10 9 33:30 3 28
W L L L W
13 25 6 9 10 22:38 -16 27
L W L D W
14 25 4 10 11 26:38 -12 22
D W D D L
15 23 5 7 11 15:37 -22 22
D D L L W
16 25 4 6 15 23:40 -17 18
L W W W W