🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
10.09.2026 02:30
Snapdragon Stadium
Referee: A. Da Silva
San Diego
Match Timeline
San Jose Earthquakes
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
3'
N. Tsakiris · Assist: B. Leroux
San Jose Earthquakes
🟨
6'
CJ Dos Santos
San Diego
VAR
6'
CJ Dos Santos
San Diego
VAR
6'
Preston Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
8'
Niko Tsakiris
San Jose Earthquakes
12'
P. Judd · Assist: N. Tsakiris
San Jose Earthquakes
🟨
13'
Preston Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
🟨
18'
Christopher McVey
San Diego
🔄
30'
P. Judd ↔ O. Bouda
San Jose Earthquakes
35'
O. Bouda · Assist: N. Tsakiris
San Jose Earthquakes
🟨
37'
Ousseni Bouda
San Jose Earthquakes
42'
A. Dreyer · Assist: O. Valakari
San Diego
🟨
45+3'
Beau Leroux
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
45+2'
Gabriel Pirani ↔ A. Pellegrino
San Diego
🔄
46'
D. Thorhallsson ↔ K. Sargeant
San Diego
🔄
46'
A. Godoy ↔ A. Alvarado Jr
San Diego
🔄
46'
R. Roberts ↔ M. Floriani
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
46'
L. Jovanovic ↔ E. Lowen
San Jose Earthquakes
🟨
52'
Jeppe Tverskov
San Diego
🔄
67'
B. Leroux ↔ R. Vieira
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
67'
J. Jasinski ↔ B. Kikanovic
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
68'
O. Valakari ↔ C. Bakambu
San Diego
🟨
75'
Max Floriani
San Jose Earthquakes
🟨
80'
CJ Dos Santos
San Diego
🟥
80'
CJ Dos Santos
San Diego
🔄
82'
↔ D. Ferree
San Diego
VAR
88'
Cédric Bakambu
San Diego
🟨
90+5'
Ronaldo Vieira
San Jose Earthquakes
🟨
90+2'
Max Floriani
San Jose Earthquakes
🟥
90+2'
Max Floriani
San Jose Earthquakes
90'
C. Bakambu
San Diego

San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.9%
Odds 1.79
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.40
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.40
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.9%
1.79
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.40
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.40
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.8%
1.26
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.62
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.00
Probability Distribution
San Diego Win 60.9%
Draw 5.3%
San Jose Earthquakes Win 33.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Diego1.62
San Jose Earthquakes1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Diego San Diego
WWDLW
49 GF / 42 GA
San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes
WLDWL
47 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.75
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
14
BTTS Yes
16
17
Over 2.5
15
4.33
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Diego San Diego 28 matches
San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 28 matches
San Diego Statistic San Jose Earthquakes
11 Wins 13
6 Draws 5
11 Losses 10
49 Goals For 47
42 Goals Against 40
1.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
14 BTTS Yes 16
21 Over 1.5 22
17 Over 2.5 15
13 Over 3.5 12
8 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 5
4.33 Shots On Goal 5
11.67 Total Shots 13.04
4.78 Corners 6.17
58.4% Ball Possession 47.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors San Jose Earthquakes. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with San Diego expected to line up in 4-3-3 and San Jose Earthquakes in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward San Jose Earthquakes having the stronger overall control. San Jose Earthquakes arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

San Diego Analysis

San Diego sit 8 with 30 points after 22 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 40:33 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Marcus Ingvartsen (7 goals), Anders Dreyer (3 goals), David Vazquez (3 goals), with creative support from Anders Dreyer (7 assists), Lewis Morgan (3 assists), Pedro Soma (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

San Jose Earthquakes Analysis

With 34 points from 22 games and a place of 4, San Jose Earthquakes still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 39:33 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Preston Judd (9 goals), Timo Werner (4 goals), Ousseni Bouda (3 goals), with creative support from Niko Tsakiris (4 assists), Paul Marie (4 assists), Preston Judd (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, San Diego won 2 times, San Jose Earthquakes won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:5 from San Diego's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: San Diego 4-3-3 / San Jose Earthquakes 4-2-3-1
Missing players: San Diego 2, San Jose Earthquakes 6
H2H summary: San Diego wins 2, draws 0, San Jose Earthquakes wins 2

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 4 6 56:23 33 49
W L W L W
2 26 13 5 8 34:30 4 44
D L W D D
3 26 12 8 6 45:36 9 44
W W D W D
4 26 12 8 6 49:42 7 44
D W W W D
5 26 12 6 8 46:38 8 42
D W W D D
6 27 11 8 8 43:29 14 41
D L W D D
7 26 11 3 12 36:35 1 36
D W D L W
8 27 8 9 10 34:42 -8 33
W D L W L
9 26 9 5 12 47:48 -1 32
L L D W L
10 25 8 6 11 42:42 0 30
L L L W W
11 26 7 9 10 32:44 -12 30
D W D D W
12 25 8 5 12 37:42 -5 29
L L L D L
13 24 7 8 9 28:33 -5 29
D D D D D
14 26 7 8 11 39:46 -7 29
L L L L D
15 25 5 3 17 29:63 -34 18
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)