🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
17.05.2026 01:30
Snapdragon Stadium
Referee: T. Ford
San Diego
Match Timeline
FC Cincinnati
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
K. Mboma · Assist: Evander
FC Cincinnati
🟨
24'
Miles Robinson
FC Cincinnati
⚽
32'
M. Ingvartsen · Assist: K. Sargeant
San Diego
🔄
46'
A. Godoy ↔ P. Soma
San Diego
🔄
46'
K. Sargeant ↔ O. Verhoeven
San Diego
🔄
46'
M. Robinson ↔ K. Smith
FC Cincinnati
🔄
46'
G. Valenzuela ↔ T. Barlow
FC Cincinnati
⚽
50'
T. Barlow · Assist: Evander
FC Cincinnati
🟨
54'
David Vazquez
San Diego
⚽
66'
A. Pellegrino · Assist: P. Soma
San Diego
🔄
69'
D. Vazquez ↔ A. Mighten
San Diego
🔄
73'
K. Mboma ↔ B. J. Ramirez Leon
FC Cincinnati
🔄
73'
N. Hagglund ↔ O. Nwobodo
FC Cincinnati
🔄
78'
A. Pellegrino ↔ A. Alvarado Jr
San Diego
🟨
87'
Obinna Nwobodo
FC Cincinnati
🟨
90'
Tom Barlow
FC Cincinnati
🔄
90+1'
O. Valakari ↔ A. Saidi
San Diego
🔄
90+1'
K. Denkey ↔ A. Jabbari
FC Cincinnati
⚽
90'
M. Ingvartsen · Assist: A. Saidi
San Diego
⚽
90'
T. Barlow · Assist: A. Jabbari
FC Cincinnati

San Diego vs FC Cincinnati Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
San Diego Win 32.6%
Draw 14.5%
FC Cincinnati Win 52.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Diego1.93
FC Cincinnati2.02
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Diego San Diego
WWDLW
34 GF / 28 GA
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WLDWL
49 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.89
Average Goals Scored
2.33
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
2
9
BTTS Yes
13
12
Over 2.5
13
4.47
Shots on Goal
5.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Diego San Diego 18 matches
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 21 matches
San Diego Statistic FC Cincinnati
7 Wins 8
4 Draws 6
7 Losses 7
34 Goals For 49
28 Goals Against 42
1.89 Avg Goals Scored 2.33
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 2
9 BTTS Yes 13
15 Over 1.5 18
12 Over 2.5 13
9 Over 3.5 12
5 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 2
4.47 Shots On Goal 5.71
11 Total Shots 13.88
4.53 Corners 4.71
58.5% Ball Possession 50.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FC Cincinnati. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. San Diego have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with San Diego expected to line up in 4-3-3 and FC Cincinnati in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Cincinnati having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

San Diego Analysis

San Diego sit 13 with 13 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 20:20, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Ingvartsen (8 goals), A. Dreyer (5 goals), O. Valakari (3 goals), with creative support from A. Dreyer (5 assists), M. Ingvartsen (2 assists), O. Valakari (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

FC Cincinnati sit 6 with 16 points after 12 league matches. The record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 24:27 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Denkey (7 goals), Evander (6 goals), T. Barlow (2 goals), with creative support from E. Echenique (3 assists), P. Bucha (3 assists), K. Denkey (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, San Diego won 0 times, FC Cincinnati won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:3 from San Diego's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.5%)
Predicted formations: San Diego 4-3-3 / FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
Missing players: San Diego 6, FC Cincinnati 4
H2H summary: San Diego wins 0, draws 1, FC Cincinnati wins 0

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 4 6 56:23 33 49
W L W L W
2 26 13 5 8 34:30 4 44
D L W D D
3 26 12 8 6 45:36 9 44
W W D W D
4 26 12 8 6 49:42 7 44
D W W W D
5 26 12 6 8 46:38 8 42
D W W D D
6 27 11 8 8 43:29 14 41
D L W D D
7 26 11 3 12 36:35 1 36
D W D L W
8 27 8 9 10 34:42 -8 33
W D L W L
9 26 9 5 12 47:48 -1 32
L L D W L
10 25 8 8 9 30:33 -3 32
W D D D D
11 26 8 7 11 44:44 0 31
D L L L W
12 26 7 9 10 32:44 -12 30
D W D D W
13 26 8 5 13 37:44 -7 29
L L L L D
14 26 7 8 11 39:46 -7 29
L L L L D
15 25 5 3 17 29:63 -34 18
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)