NORWAY ELITESERIEN
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Lerkendal Stadion

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.8%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Rosenborg Win 72.8%
Draw 5.1%
Ham-Kam Win 22.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rosenborg1.5
Ham-Kam1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rosenborg Rosenborg
WWDLW
38 GF / 36 GA
Ham-Kam Ham-Kam
WLDWL
42 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.56
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
11
BTTS Yes
16
15
Over 2.5
18
4.59
Shots on Goal
4.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rosenborg Rosenborg 26 matches
Ham-Kam Ham-Kam 27 matches
Rosenborg Statistic Ham-Kam
12 Wins 10
4 Draws 7
10 Losses 10
38 Goals For 42
36 Goals Against 42
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
11 BTTS Yes 16
22 Over 1.5 24
15 Over 2.5 18
7 Over 3.5 10
8 Clean Sheets 7
9 Failed To Score 4
4.59 Shots On Goal 4.18
13.06 Total Shots 10.53
6.41 Corners 4.41
51.6% Ball Possession 48.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Rosenborg's more proactive style and Ham-Kam's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Rosenborg expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Ham-Kam in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ham-Kam having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Ham-Kam. Rosenborg come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Rosenborg Analysis

Rosenborg sit 7 with 24 points after 17 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, while the 25:22 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Going forward they rely heavily on Amin Chiakha (8 goals), Iver Fossum (3 goals), Simen Nordli (3 goals), with creative support from Ole Selnaes (5 assists), Emil Konradsen Ceide (3 assists), Mads Bomholt (3 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Ham-Kam Analysis

Ham-Kam approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 22 points from 17 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 24:30 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Mame Alassane Niang (5 goals), Aksel Baran Potur (4 goals), Henrik Udahl (4 goals), with creative support from Patrick Metcalfe (4 assists), Martin Gjone (3 assists), Viðar Ari Jónsson (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Rosenborg won 5 times, Ham-Kam won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:9 from Rosenborg's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.63 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Rosenborg 4-3-3 / Ham-Kam 5-3-2
H2H summary: Rosenborg wins 5, draws 1, Ham-Kam wins 2

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 14 2 2 47:14 33 44
W W W W W
2 18 14 1 3 42:18 24 43
W L W W D
3 18 10 5 3 34:20 14 35
D L W W W
4 18 9 3 6 36:29 7 30
W W L D W
5 18 8 2 8 36:27 9 26
D W W L W
6 18 8 2 8 24:25 -1 26
L D L L L
7 18 8 2 8 22:28 -6 26
W W W W L
8 18 7 3 8 27:26 1 24
L W W L W
9 18 6 5 7 20:23 -3 23
D L L D W
10 18 6 5 7 26:32 -6 23
D L D W L
11 18 6 3 9 31:38 -7 21
L D L L W
12 18 5 4 9 15:23 -8 19
D W L L L
13 18 5 4 9 20:31 -11 19
L D W W L
14 18 4 4 10 17:29 -12 16
D L W L L
15 18 2 9 7 28:43 -15 15
L D D L D
16 18 3 4 11 20:39 -19 13
W L L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen