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SPAIN › LA LIGA
18.10.2026 19:00
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium
Referee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer

Real Madrid vs Sevilla Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.7%
Odds 1.24
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.41
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.7%
1.24 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.91 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.41 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.18 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.67 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Real Madrid Win 61.7%
Draw 3.3%
Sevilla Win 35%
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Madrid1.98
Sevilla1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Real Madrid Real Madrid
WWDLW
37 GF / 16 GA
Sevilla Sevilla
WLDWL
21 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
2.47
Average Goals Scored
1.31
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
10
BTTS Yes
10
12
Over 2.5
9
7.3
Shots on Goal
4.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Real Madrid Real Madrid 15 matches
Sevilla Sevilla 16 matches
Real Madrid Statistic Sevilla
12 Wins 8
1 Draws 3
2 Losses 5
37 Goals For 21
16 Goals Against 20
2.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
10 BTTS Yes 10
12 Over 1.5 10
12 Over 2.5 9
7 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 5
1 Failed To Score 2
7.3 Shots On Goal 4.25
17.5 Total Shots 11.88
7 Corners 3.13
49.5% Ball Possession 42.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sevilla. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Real Madrid Analysis

Real Madrid approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 18 points after 8 outings. With 6 wins, 0 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 19:8, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Kylian Mbappé (7 goals), J. Bellingham (3 goals), Vinícius Júnior (1 goals), with creative support from Vinícius Júnior (3 assists), Kylian Mbappé (2 assists), J. Bellingham (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Sevilla Analysis

Sevilla arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 13 points after 7 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 10:9 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Sierra (2 goals), Juan Iglesias (1 goals), Y. Fofana (1 goals), with creative support from R. Ure (1 assists), Félix Correia (1 assists), G. Kochorashvili (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Real Madrid won 13 times, Sevilla won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:11 from Real Madrid's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.7%)
Predicted formations: Real Madrid 4-2-3-1 / Sevilla 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Real Madrid 5, Sevilla 5
H2H summary: Real Madrid wins 13, draws 2, Sevilla wins 0

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 9 0 0 39:9 30 27
W W W W W
2 9 7 1 1 19:8 11 22
W W W W W
3 9 6 1 2 16:14 2 19
L W D W W
4 8 6 0 2 19:8 11 18
W L W W L
5 8 4 2 2 13:12 1 14
D L W W D
6 8 4 1 3 12:15 -3 13
W W L W D
7 8 3 2 3 12:8 4 11
L D L L W
8 9 2 5 2 13:12 1 11
D L D L D
9 7 2 3 2 7:6 1 9
D D D W
10 9 2 3 4 13:13 0 9
D L W W L
11 8 1 5 2 8:6 2 8
D W D D D
12 9 2 2 5 11:12 -1 8
L D L L W
13 7 2 2 3 11:16 -5 8
D W L W
14 8 2 2 4 4:10 -6 8
L W L D D
15 8 2 2 4 13:23 -10 8
D L L W L
16 8 2 2 4 8:18 -10 8
L D L L L
17 8 1 4 3 12:16 -4 7
D D L L D
18 9 1 4 4 11:17 -6 7
D D W L D
19 9 1 3 5 6:15 -9 6
D D L W L
20 8 0 4 4 4:13 -9 4
D L L D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2