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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
18.10.2026 02:30
Avaya Stadium
Referee: Joseph Dickerson
San Jose Earthquakes
Match Timeline
Nashville SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
28'
Shakur Mohammed
Nashville SC
⚽
34'
Hany Mukhtar
Nashville SC
🟨
39'
Beau Leroux
San Jose Earthquakes
🟨
45+3'
Preston Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
45'
Shakur Mohammed ↔ Elias Saad
Nashville SC
🔄
67'
Timo Werner ↔ Ousseni Bouda
San Jose Earthquakes
⚽
70'
Preston Judd · Assist: Eduard Löwen
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
72'
Patrick Yazbek ↔ Edvard Sandvik Tagseth
Nashville SC
🔄
72'
Daniel Lovitz ↔ Reed Baker-Whiting
Nashville SC
🔄
76'
Jamar Ricketts ↔ Nick Fernandez
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
76'
Preston Judd ↔ Paul Marie
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
79'
Cristian Espinoza ↔ Warren Madrigal
Nashville SC
🔄
86'
Jack Jasinski ↔ Max Floriani
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
86'
Ronaldo Vieira ↔ Ian Harkes
San Jose Earthquakes
🟨
90'
Ian Harkes
San Jose Earthquakes

San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 51.2%
Odds 1.93
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.53
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
51.2%
1.93 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.50 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.53 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
7.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
San Jose Earthquakes Win 31.1%
Draw 17.7%
Nashville SC Win 51.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Jose Earthquakes1.32
Nashville SC1.71
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes
WWDLW
58 GF / 47 GA
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WLDWL
79 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.71
Average Goals Scored
1.93
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
0.73
21
BTTS Yes
17
18
Over 2.5
22
5.03
Shots on Goal
4.92

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 34 matches
Nashville SC Nashville SC 41 matches
San Jose Earthquakes Statistic Nashville SC
16 Wins 25
8 Draws 10
10 Losses 6
58 Goals For 79
47 Goals Against 30
1.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.93
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 0.73
21 BTTS Yes 17
27 Over 1.5 26
18 Over 2.5 22
15 Over 3.5 16
9 Clean Sheets 20
5 Failed To Score 9
5.03 Shots On Goal 4.92
13.59 Total Shots 12.68
6.34 Corners 5.3
48.3% Ball Possession 52.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Nashville SC. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Nashville SC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 60 points while San Jose Earthquakes sit 4 on 45, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with San Jose Earthquakes expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Nashville SC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nashville SC having the stronger overall control.

San Jose Earthquakes Analysis

San Jose Earthquakes come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 45 points after 27 matches. The return of 13 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 49:39, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through P. Judd (13 goals), T. Werner (4 goals), O. Bouda (4 goals), with creative support from Niko Tsakiris (7 assists), Beau Leroux (6 assists), P. Marie (5 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, their record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Nashville SC Analysis

Nashville SC arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 60 points after 27 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 18 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, while the 55:21 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on H. Mukhtar (9 goals), S. Surridge (7 goals), W. Madrigal (3 goals), with creative support from C. Espinoza (7 assists), H. Mukhtar (5 assists), A. Najar (4 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, San Jose Earthquakes won 0 times, Nashville SC won 0 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:4 from San Jose Earthquakes's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.3%)
Predicted formations: San Jose Earthquakes 5-3-2 / Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: San Jose Earthquakes 7, Nashville SC 2
H2H summary: San Jose Earthquakes wins 0, draws 4, Nashville SC wins 0

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 7 7 61:30 31 52
D D L D W
2 30 14 9 7 56:41 15 51
L D W W W
3 29 14 8 7 53:45 8 50
W L W D W
4 29 13 8 8 51:41 10 47
D D W D W
5 29 13 7 9 39:37 2 46
D D L D L
6 30 12 9 9 47:32 15 45
W D L D L
7 29 11 8 10 38:36 2 41
L W W W W
8 30 10 9 11 41:50 -9 39
W L W W D
9 29 11 5 13 41:41 0 38
D D L D W
10 30 8 10 12 47:55 -8 34
W D D L L
11 29 9 6 14 51:56 -5 33
L D L L L
12 29 9 6 14 42:47 -5 33
D L W L L
13 29 8 9 12 51:54 -3 33
D L D D L
14 29 7 10 12 37:54 -17 31
L L D D W
15 29 6 4 19 35:72 -37 22
L D L W L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)