SPAIN LA LIGA
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Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.8%
Odds 1.36
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 2.75
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.8%
1.36
BTTS Yes
71.2%
2.20
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
2.75
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.20
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Rayo Vallecano Win 49.1%
Draw 4.2%
Alaves Win 46.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rayo Vallecano0.88
Alaves1.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano
WWDLW
6 GF / 11 GA
Alaves Alaves
WLDWL
9 GF / 2 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.8
2.2
Average Goals Conceded
0.4
4
BTTS Yes
2
5
Over 2.5
2
3
Shots on Goal
8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 5 matches
Alaves Alaves 5 matches
Rayo Vallecano Statistic Alaves
1 Wins 3
0 Draws 2
4 Losses 0
6 Goals For 9
11 Goals Against 2
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.8
2.2 Avg Goals Conceded 0.4
4 BTTS Yes 2
5 Over 1.5 4
5 Over 2.5 2
1 Over 3.5 0
0 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 0
3 Shots On Goal 8
6 Total Shots 18
2 Corners 5
51% Ball Possession 52%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 7 times, Alaves won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:10 from Rayo Vallecano's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1 / Alaves 3-5-2
Missing players: Rayo Vallecano 3, Alaves 2
H2H summary: Rayo Vallecano wins 7, draws 0, Alaves wins 4
Last matches: Rayo Vallecano
15.08.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla
1
2
L
08.08.26
Fri
Rayo Vallecano
Ipswich
0
3
L
01.08.26
Fri
Rayo Vallecano
Charleroi
3
2
W
26.07.26
Fri
Rayo Vallecano
Feyenoord
1
2
L
17.07.26
Fri
Rayo Vallecano
Heart Of Midlothian
1
2
L
27.05.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Crystal Palace
0
1
L
23.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
2
1
W
17.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal
2
0
W
14.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
1
1
D
11.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Girona
1
1
D
07.05.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Strasbourg
1
0
W
03.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
2
0
W
30.04.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Strasbourg
1
0
W
26.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad
3
3
D
23.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol
1
0
W
16.04.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
AEK Athens FC
1
3
L
12.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Mallorca
0
3
L
09.04.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
AEK Athens FC
3
0
W
03.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
1
0
W
22.03.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona
0
1
L
Last matches: Alaves
15.08.26
La
Alaves
Getafe
3
0
W
07.08.26
Fri
Alaves
Racing Santander
1
1
D
31.07.26
Fri
Alaves
Castellón
3
0
W
25.07.26
Fri
Alaves
Girona
1
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Alaves
Eibar
1
1
D
23.05.26
La
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
1
2
L
17.05.26
La
Alaves
Oviedo
1
0
W
13.05.26
La
Alaves
Barcelona
1
0
W
09.05.26
La
Alaves
Elche
1
1
D
02.05.26
La
Alaves
Athletic Club
2
4
L
25.04.26
La
Alaves
Mallorca
2
1
W
21.04.26
La
Alaves
Real Madrid
1
2
L
11.04.26
La
Alaves
Real Sociedad
3
3
D
05.04.26
La
Alaves
Osasuna
2
2
D
22.03.26
La
Alaves
Celta Vigo
4
3
W
13.03.26
La
Alaves
Villarreal
1
1
D
08.03.26
La
Alaves
Valencia
2
3
L
27.02.26
La
Alaves
Levante
0
2
L
23.02.26
La
Alaves
Girona
2
2
D
14.02.26
La
Alaves
Sevilla
1
1
D
H2H: Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves
23.05.26
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
1
2
W
14.01.26
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
2
0
L
26.10.25
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
1
0
W
29.03.25
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
0
2
W
26.10.24
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
1
0
W
10.03.24
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
1
0
L
15.09.23
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
2
0
W
16.04.22
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
1
0
L
18.12.21
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
2
0
W
28.01.19
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
0
1
W
22.09.18
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
1
5
L
Last matches: Rayo Vallecano
17.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal
2
0
W
11.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Girona
1
1
D
30.04.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Strasbourg
1
0
W
26.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad
3
3
D
23.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol
1
0
W
09.04.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
AEK Athens FC
3
0
W
03.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
1
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Samsunspor
0
1
L
16.03.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Levante
1
1
D
04.03.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Oviedo
3
0
W
28.02.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
1
1
D
15.02.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Atletico Madrid
3
0
W
24.01.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Osasuna
1
3
L
11.01.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Mallorca
2
1
W
02.01.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
1
1
D
18.12.25
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Drita
3
0
W
15.12.25
La
Rayo Vallecano
Real Betis
0
0
D
01.12.25
La
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
1
1
D
09.11.25
La
Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
0
0
D
06.11.25
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Lech Poznan
3
2
W
H2H at home: Rayo Vallecano
26.10.25
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
1
0
W
26.10.24
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
1
0
W
15.09.23
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
2
0
W
18.12.21
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
2
0
W
22.09.18
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
1
5
L
Last matches: Alaves
07.08.26
Fri
Alaves
Racing Santander
1
1
D
25.07.26
Fri
Alaves
Girona
1
0
W
17.05.26
La
Alaves
Oviedo
1
0
W
09.05.26
La
Alaves
Elche
1
1
D
21.04.26
La
Alaves
Real Madrid
1
2
L
11.04.26
La
Alaves
Real Sociedad
3
3
D
22.03.26
La
Alaves
Celta Vigo
4
3
W
08.03.26
La
Alaves
Valencia
2
3
L
27.02.26
La
Alaves
Levante
0
2
L
14.02.26
La
Alaves
Sevilla
1
1
D
30.01.26
La
Alaves
Espanyol
2
1
W
18.01.26
La
Alaves
Atletico Madrid
0
1
L
10.01.26
La
Alaves
Villarreal
1
3
L
20.12.25
La
Alaves
Osasuna
0
3
L
02.12.25
Cop
Alaves
Portugalete
3
0
W
29.11.25
La
Alaves
Barcelona
1
3
L
08.11.25
La
Alaves
Girona
0
1
L
30.10.25
Cop
Alaves
Deportivo Getxo
7
0
W
26.10.25
La
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
0
1
L
27.09.25
La
Alaves
Mallorca
0
1
L
H2H away: Alaves
26.10.25
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
1
0
L
26.10.24
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
1
0
L
15.09.23
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
2
0
L
18.12.21
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
2
0
L
22.09.18
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
1
5
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 2.31
Draw 3.06
Away 3.65
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 3.12
Draw 1.98
Away 4.63
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.55
Under 1.5 2.51
Over 1.75 1.72
Under 1.75 2.18
Over 2.0 2.04
Under 2.0 1.85
Over 2.25 2.40
Under 2.25 1.61
Over 2.5 2.75
Under 2.5 1.47
Over 2.75 3.34
Under 2.75 1.34
Over 1.0 1.18
Under 1.0 5.09
Over 1.25 1.36
Under 1.25 3.19
Over 3.0 4.62
Under 3.0 1.20
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 2.25
Draw 3.00
Away 3.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 3.10
Draw 1.91
Away 4.33
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 2.75
Draw 2.10
Away 3.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.53
Under 1.5 2.50
Over 2.5 2.75
Under 2.5 1.44
Over 3.5 5.00
Under 3.5 1.17
Over 0.5 1.12
Under 0.5 6.00
Over 4.5 13.00
Under 4.5 1.04
Over 5.5 26.00
Under 5.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 2.37
Draw 3.14
Away 3.64
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 3.08
Draw 1.86
Away 4.45
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 2.70
Draw 2.17
Away 3.92
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.61
Under 1.5 2.54
Over 1.75 1.77
Under 1.75 2.22
Over 2.0 1.97
Under 2.0 1.80
Over 2.25 2.30
Under 2.25 1.56
Over 2.5 2.62
Under 2.5 1.44
Over 2.75 3.18
Under 2.75 1.29
Over 3.5 5.25
Under 3.5 1.10
Over 0.5 1.08
Under 0.5 6.65
Over 0.75 1.12
Under 0.75 5.93
Over 1.0 1.15
Under 1.0 5.20
Over 1.25 1.38
Under 1.25 3.41
Over 3.0 4.40
Under 3.0 1.16
Over 4.5 11.50
Under 4.5 1.01
Over 3.25 4.82
Under 3.25 1.12
Over 3.75 8.15
Under 3.75 1.05
Over 4.0 9.30
Under 4.0 1.03
Over 5.5 22.00
Under 5.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 2.23
Draw 3.00
Away 3.65
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 2.95
Draw 1.92
Away 4.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 2.60
Draw 2.25
Away 3.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.55
Under 1.5 2.43
Over 1.75 1.71
Under 1.75 2.12
Over 2.0 2.02
Under 2.0 1.78
Over 2.25 2.38
Under 2.25 1.57
Over 2.5 2.70
Under 2.5 1.45
Over 2.75 3.35
Under 2.75 1.32
Over 3.5 5.50
Under 3.5 1.13
Over 0.5 1.10
Under 0.5 6.75
Over 1.25 1.36
Under 1.25 3.10
Over 3.0 4.40
Under 3.0 1.20
Over 4.5 12.00
Under 4.5 1.02

Missing Players

Rayo Vallecano 3 missing
-
Luiz Felipe
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
M. Kumbulla
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
D. Mendez
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Alaves 2 missing
-
F. Garces
Missing Fixture Suspended
OUT
-
T. Mendes
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT