BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio do Caninde
Portuguesa
Match Timeline
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
90'
Matheus Cadorini
Portuguesa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Portuguesa Win 87%
Draw 5.2%
Sampaio Corrêa RJ Win 7.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Portuguesa1.33
Sampaio Corrêa RJ0.75
Recent Form (Last 5)
Portuguesa Portuguesa
WWDLW
17 GF / 7 GA
Sampaio Corrêa RJ Sampaio Corrêa RJ
WLDWL
9 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.55
Average Goals Scored
0.82
0.64
Average Goals Conceded
1
6
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Portuguesa Portuguesa 11 matches
Sampaio Corrêa RJ Sampaio Corrêa RJ 11 matches
Portuguesa Statistic Sampaio Corrêa RJ
6 Wins 3
4 Draws 4
1 Losses 4
17 Goals For 9
7 Goals Against 11
1.55 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
0.64 Avg Goals Conceded 1
6 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 6
4 Over 2.5 2
1 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together Portuguesa's more proactive style and Sampaio Corrêa RJ's more cautious structure, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sampaio Corrêa RJ. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Sampaio Corrêa RJ having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Sampaio Corrêa RJ arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Portuguesa arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 21 points compared to Sampaio Corrêa RJ in 4 on 12, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Portuguesa Analysis

Portuguesa come into this tie placed 1 in their league with 21 points from 10 matches. With 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses plus a goal ratio of 16:6, they bring good form and are on a winning streak into this tie. Going forward they rely on Lohan (5 goals), Matheus Cadorini (5 goals), Matheus Iacovelli (5 goals), while defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Sampaio Corrêa RJ Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Sampaio Corrêa RJ arrive from a league campaign that has them 4 with 12 points after 10 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats with goals at 8:10 reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Elias (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Portuguesa won 1 times, Sampaio Corrêa RJ won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Portuguesa's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
H2H summary: Portuguesa wins 1, draws 1, Sampaio Corrêa RJ wins 0
Last matches: Portuguesa
25.07.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Uberlandia
1
0
W
18.07.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Uberlandia
0
2
L
11.07.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Marcílio Dias
2
0
W
04.07.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
20.06.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
1
D
06.06.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Portuguesa RJ
2
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Pouso Alegre
2
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa
América RJ
4
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Água Santa
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Madureira
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Madureira
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Água Santa
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa
América RJ
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Pouso Alegre
3
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Portuguesa RJ
1
1
D
09.08.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Mixto
1
0
W
02.08.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Mixto
0
1
L
26.07.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Boavista SC
3
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Portuguesa
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Água Santa
2
1
W
Last matches: Sampaio Corrêa RJ
20.06.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Portuguesa
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Noroeste
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Velo Clube
1
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Nova Iguaçu
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
XV de Piracicaba
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Nova Iguaçu
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Velo Clube
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Noroeste
1
0
W
H2H: Portuguesa vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ
27.06.26
H2H
Portuguesa
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
20.06.26
H2H
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Portuguesa
1
1
D
Last matches: Portuguesa
25.07.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Uberlandia
1
0
W
11.07.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Marcílio Dias
2
0
W
06.06.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Portuguesa RJ
2
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa
América RJ
4
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Água Santa
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Madureira
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Pouso Alegre
3
0
W
09.08.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Mixto
1
0
W
26.07.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Boavista SC
3
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Água Santa
2
1
W
28.06.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Porto Vitória
2
1
W
07.06.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Nova Iguaçu
1
0
W
24.05.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Pouso Alegre
2
1
W
10.05.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Rio Branco ES
2
1
W
26.04.25
Ser
Portuguesa
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
H2H at home: Portuguesa
27.06.26
H2H
Portuguesa
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
Last matches: Sampaio Corrêa RJ
07.06.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Noroeste
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Nova Iguaçu
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
XV de Piracicaba
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Velo Clube
0
2
L
H2H away: Sampaio Corrêa RJ
27.06.26
H2H
Portuguesa
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
L

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)