BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Porto Velho
Match Timeline
Independência
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
18'
Ruan Costa
Porto Velho
55'
Ruan Costa
Porto Velho
60'
M. Lemos
Independência

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Porto Velho Win 79.9%
Draw 15.9%
Independência Win 4.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Porto Velho1.72
Independência1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Porto Velho Porto Velho
WWDLW
11 GF / 5 GA
Independência Independência
WLDWL
6 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
2.2
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1
Average Goals Conceded
1
3
BTTS Yes
3
3
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Porto Velho Porto Velho 5 matches
Independência Independência 5 matches
Porto Velho Statistic Independência
2 Wins 1
1 Draws 2
2 Losses 2
11 Goals For 6
5 Goals Against 5
2.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1
3 BTTS Yes 3
4 Over 1.5 4
3 Over 2.5 2
2 Over 3.5 0
1 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Independência. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Independência having the stronger overall control.

Porto Velho Analysis

Placed 3 with 7 points from 5 outings, Porto Velho continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 11:5 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Yan Philippe (3 goals), Franca (2 goals), Jeferson (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Independência Analysis

Independência come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 5 points from 5 matches. The record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 6:5 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Biel (2 goals), Caique Gomes (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Porto Velho won 1 times, Independência won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Porto Velho's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (95.8%)
H2H summary: Porto Velho wins 1, draws 1, Independência wins 0
Last matches: Porto Velho
12.07.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Gama
0
2
L
04.07.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Gama
2
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Sao Raimundo
1
1
D
21.06.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Sao Raimundo
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Humaitá
13
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Galvez
6
2
W
24.05.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Araguaína
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Guaporé
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Independência
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Guaporé
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Araguaína
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Galvez
4
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Humaitá
5
1
W
26.07.25
Ser
Porto Velho
Mixto
0
3
L
20.07.25
Ser
Porto Velho
Capital Brasilia
0
3
L
12.07.25
Ser
Porto Velho
Goiânia
2
2
D
05.07.25
Ser
Porto Velho
Aparecidense
0
7
L
28.06.25
Ser
Porto Velho
Goianésia
0
0
D
14.06.25
Ser
Porto Velho
Luverdense
0
0
D
07.06.25
Ser
Porto Velho
Ceilândia
0
3
L
Last matches: Independência
28.06.26
Ser
Independência
Manauara
1
1
D
21.06.26
Ser
Independência
Manauara
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
2
2
D
31.05.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
3
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
3
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
0
1
L
09.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
3
L
03.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
5
L
27.07.25
Ser
Independência
Manauara
2
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Independência
Águia de Marabá
1
4
L
12.07.25
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
0
1
L
05.07.25
Ser
Independência
GAS
2
1
W
29.06.25
Ser
Independência
Trem
2
2
D
15.06.25
Ser
Independência
Tuna Luso
0
3
L
07.06.25
Ser
Independência
Manaus FC
1
0
W
H2H: Porto Velho vs Independência
09.05.26
H2H
Porto Velho
Independência
2
1
W
02.05.26
H2H
Independência
Porto Velho
1
1
D
Last matches: Porto Velho
04.07.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Gama
2
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Sao Raimundo
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Humaitá
13
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Guaporé
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Araguaína
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Porto Velho
Galvez
4
0
W
26.07.25
Ser
Porto Velho
Mixto
0
3
L
12.07.25
Ser
Porto Velho
Goiânia
2
2
D
28.06.25
Ser
Porto Velho
Goianésia
0
0
D
14.06.25
Ser
Porto Velho
Luverdense
0
0
D
31.05.25
Ser
Porto Velho
Ceilândia
0
2
L
10.05.25
Ser
Porto Velho
Aparecidense
3
1
W
26.04.25
Ser
Porto Velho
Capital Brasilia
0
1
L
H2H at home: Porto Velho
09.05.26
H2H
Porto Velho
Independência
2
1
W
Last matches: Independência
28.06.26
Ser
Independência
Manauara
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
4
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
1
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
0
1
L
09.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
3
L
19.07.25
Ser
Independência
Águia de Marabá
1
4
L
05.07.25
Ser
Independência
GAS
2
1
W
15.06.25
Ser
Independência
Tuna Luso
0
3
L
31.05.25
Ser
Independência
Manaus FC
0
1
L
21.05.25
Ser
Independência
Trem
2
1
W
04.05.25
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
3
1
W
19.04.25
Ser
Independência
Manauara
1
1
D
H2H away: Independência
09.05.26
H2H
Porto Velho
Independência
2
1
L

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)