BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Moisés Lucarelli
Referee: J. Pfleger
Ponte Preta
Match Timeline
Nautico Recife
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
40'
Brandao · Assist: David da Hora
Ponte Preta
🟨
44'
Léo Índio
Nautico Recife
🟨
45+1'
Benjamín Borasi
Nautico Recife
🟨
46'
Diego Leão
Ponte Preta
🔄
46'
Igor Fernandes ↔ Ryan Carlos
Nautico Recife
🔄
46'
Leo Indio ↔ P. Nunez
Nautico Recife
🟨
54'
André Lima
Ponte Preta
🟨
59'
Arnaldo
Nautico Recife
🔄
60'
Kauan Maranhao ↔ Luiz Claudio
Nautico Recife
65'
B. Borasi
Nautico Recife
🟨
67'
Patricio Núñez
Nautico Recife
🔄
76'
Juan Rodrigues ↔ Miguel Morais
Ponte Preta
🔄
76'
Gustavo Henrique ↔ Wanderson
Nautico Recife
🔄
79'
Arnaldo ↔ Reginaldo
Nautico Recife
🔄
82'
Brandao ↔ Gustavo Telles
Ponte Preta
🟨
83'
Patricio Núñez
Nautico Recife
🟥
83'
Patricio Núñez
Nautico Recife
🟨
90+6'
Matheus Souza Santos
Ponte Preta
🟥
90+2'
Betão
Nautico Recife
🔄
90+3'
Gustavo Almeida ↔ Joao Damiao
Ponte Preta
🔄
90+3'
David da Hora ↔ M. Souza
Ponte Preta

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.6%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.9%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ponte Preta Win 13.5%
Draw 28%
Nautico Recife Win 58.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ponte Preta0.9
Nautico Recife1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WWDLW
15 GF / 41 GA
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WLDWL
25 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
0.71
Average Goals Scored
1.19
1.95
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
11
BTTS Yes
8
11
Over 2.5
8
3.38
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 21 matches
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 21 matches
Ponte Preta Statistic Nautico Recife
2 Wins 7
3 Draws 5
16 Losses 9
15 Goals For 25
41 Goals Against 25
0.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.19
1.95 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
11 BTTS Yes 8
17 Over 1.5 12
11 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 9
3.38 Shots On Goal 4.33
10.71 Total Shots 15.81
4.76 Corners 5.81
43% Ball Possession 58.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Ponte Preta have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nautico Recife. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ponte Preta expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Nautico Recife in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nautico Recife having the stronger overall control. Nautico Recife carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 13 with 25 points while Ponte Preta sit 20 on 9, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Ponte Preta Analysis

Ponte Preta sit 20 with 9 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 15:39 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Elvis (2 goals), Brandão (2 goals), William Pottker (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nautico Recife Analysis

So far, Nautico Recife have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 25 points from 20 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 24:24 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Vinícius (4 goals), Dodô (2 goals), Victor Andrade (2 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (2 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ponte Preta won 8 times, Nautico Recife won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:9 from Ponte Preta's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (86.5%)
Predicted formations: Ponte Preta 3-4-2-1 / Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ponte Preta wins 8, draws 4, Nautico Recife wins 3
Stats
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
3
6 Corner Kicks 6
17 Fouls 17
0 Offsides 2
37% Ball Possession 63%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Goal 4
6 Shots off Goal 7
1 Blocked Shots 3
7 Shots insidebox 10
6 Shots outsidebox 4
3 Goalkeeper Saves 5
214 Total passes 360
133 Passes accurate 269
1.15 expected_goals 2.08
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 5 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 2 🟥

Lineups

Ponte Preta
Formation
Nautico Recife
Vinicius Ferrari
Vinicius Ferrari
S. Palacios
S. Palacios
M. L. Diego
M. L. Diego
Gustavo Almeida
Gustavo Almeida
Juan Rodrigues
Juan Rodrigues
Andre Lima
Andre Lima
Leo Gomes
Leo Gomes
Baianinho
Baianinho
David da Hora
🎯
David da Hora
Elvis
Elvis
Brandao
Brandao
Muriel Becker
Muriel Becker
Arnaldo
Arnaldo
Betao
Betao
Gustavo Henrique
Gustavo Henrique
Igor Fernandes
Igor Fernandes
Wenderson
Wenderson
Leo Indio
Leo Indio
Jean Carlos
Jean Carlos
B. Borasi
B. Borasi
Kauan Maranhao
Kauan Maranhao
Derek
Derek
Ponte Preta 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
30
Vinicius Ferrari
23
S. Palacios
D
4
M. L. Diego
🟨 46'
D
44
Gustavo Almeida
↓ 90+3'
D
6
Juan Rodrigues
↓ 76'
M
8
Andre Lima
🟨 54'
M
16
Leo Gomes
M
26
Baianinho
M
18
David da Hora
🎯 40' ↓ 90+3'
F
10
Elvis
F
21
Brandao
⚽ 40' ↓ 82'
F
Substitutes
1
Guilherme Viana
17
Miguel Morais
↑ 76'
M
35
Gustavo Telles
↑ 82'
M
2
G. Cicala
32
C. Vinicius
9
Joao Damiao
↑ 90+3'
F
13
M. Souza
↑ 90+3'
Nautico Recife 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Muriel Becker
G
2
Arnaldo
↓ 79' 🟨 59'
D
3
Betao
🟥 90+2'
D
46
Gustavo Henrique
↓ 76'
23
Igor Fernandes
↓ 46'
D
8
Wenderson
M
15
Leo Indio
↓ 46' 🟨 44'
M
10
Jean Carlos
M
24
B. Borasi
⚽ 65' 🟨 45+1'
F
19
Kauan Maranhao
↓ 60'
F
72
Derek
F
Substitutes
55
G. Guruceaga
G
93
Reginaldo
↑ 79'
D
34
Wanderson
↑ 76'
D
6
Ryan Carlos
↑ 46'
D
5
Auremir
M
22
P. Nunez
↑ 46' 🟨 67' 🟨 83' 🟥 83'
M
41
Samuel Felix
M
37
Juan Rikelme
D
88
Caio
M
16
Luiz Claudio
↑ 60'
F
Last matches: Ponte Preta
23.08.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Avai
0
2
L
19.08.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Vila Nova
0
6
L
07.08.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Ceara
0
2
L
28.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Athletic Club
1
1
D
22.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Operario-PR
2
3
L
18.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Goias
1
2
L
08.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Criciuma
1
2
L
03.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Fortaleza EC
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Atletico Goianiense
0
2
L
22.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Novorizontino
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Juventude
0
3
L
09.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Cuiaba
1
2
L
01.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Botafogo SP
0
0
D
24.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
CRB
2
4
L
18.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Londrina
1
4
L
09.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Sport Recife
1
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
São Bernardo
0
3
L
24.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
America Mineiro
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Avai
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Vila Nova
0
1
L
Last matches: Nautico Recife
23.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
1
1
D
19.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ceara
1
0
W
09.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
26.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Criciuma
0
0
D
23.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Londrina
2
1
W
16.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
CRB
1
2
L
12.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Avai
0
2
L
05.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Juventude
0
0
D
28.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Goias
0
1
L
20.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
3
4
L
14.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Novorizontino
2
2
D
09.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Sport Recife
0
2
L
22.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Operario-PR
6
2
W
10.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
America Mineiro
4
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Athletic Club
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
0
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ceara
0
1
L
H2H: Ponte Preta vs Nautico Recife
14.08.26
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
1
1
D
04.04.26
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
0
L
27.09.25
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
1
1
D
20.09.25
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
0
1
W
24.05.25
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
0
1
W
05.11.22
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
0
1
W
20.07.22
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
16.10.21
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
2
3
L
12.07.21
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
17.01.21
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
2
0
W
12.10.20
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
0
2
W
19.04.18
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
0
L
12.04.18
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
3
0
W
29.11.14
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
30.08.14
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
2
0
W
Last matches: Ponte Preta
23.08.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Avai
0
2
L
28.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Athletic Club
1
1
D
18.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Goias
1
2
L
08.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Criciuma
1
2
L
22.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Novorizontino
0
2
L
09.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Cuiaba
1
2
L
01.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Botafogo SP
0
0
D
18.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Londrina
1
4
L
09.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Sport Recife
1
3
L
24.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
America Mineiro
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Vila Nova
0
1
L
02.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Ceara
1
1
D
H2H at home: Ponte Preta
14.08.26
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
1
1
D
27.09.25
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
1
1
D
20.07.22
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
16.10.21
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
2
3
L
17.01.21
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
2
0
W
12.04.18
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
3
0
W
30.08.14
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
2
0
W
Last matches: Nautico Recife
23.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
1
1
D
26.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Criciuma
0
0
D
16.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
CRB
1
2
L
12.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Avai
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
3
4
L
14.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Novorizontino
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Sport Recife
0
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Operario-PR
6
2
W
02.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Athletic Club
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ceara
0
1
L
01.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Atletico Goianiense
2
1
W
H2H away: Nautico Recife
14.08.26
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
1
1
D
27.09.25
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
1
1
D
20.07.22
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
1
0
L
16.10.21
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
2
3
W
17.01.21
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
2
0
L
12.04.18
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
3
0
L
30.08.14
H2H
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
2
0
L

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 24 12 8 4 25:17 8 44
L D W L D
3 24 12 5 7 35:25 10 41
D W W L L
4 24 11 7 6 39:21 18 40
W W D L W
5 24 11 7 6 27:21 6 40
W D D D W
6 24 9 11 4 32:22 10 38
W L W W D
7 24 10 6 8 35:34 1 36
L W D W W
8 24 10 6 8 30:31 -1 36
D L L L L
9 24 9 9 6 27:23 4 36
W D L D W
10 24 8 10 6 25:25 0 34
L L W W D
11 24 9 6 9 23:29 -6 33
D L L W L
12 24 7 12 5 21:18 3 33
D W W D D
13 24 8 8 8 33:27 6 32
D D L W L
14 24 8 7 9 28:26 2 31
L D W W L
15 24 8 7 9 28:27 1 31
D W D D D
16 24 8 5 11 27:30 -3 29
W W W L L
17 24 7 7 10 25:30 -5 28
W L L W W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 24 2 5 17 16:42 -26 11
L L L L W
20 24 2 4 18 16:50 -34 10
L L D L D
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